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Posted by mfiguiere 10/23/2024

Apple may stop producing Vision Pro by the end of 2024(www.macrumors.com)
144 points | 300 commentspage 3
RicoElectrico 10/23/2024|
iPod - solved a real user need, developed in 1 year*

Vision Pro - solution looking for a problem, in development for ≈8 years.

It really makes you think how clueless Apple has become post-Jobs ...

*4 years if we acknowledge it was an existing category and Apple just improved on competition

[copy-pasted from my Mastodon]

pjmlp 10/24/2024||
It is the same Apple after the first time Jobs went away, however this time he isn't coming back.

And while Apple has millions to burn, they better find something else other than doing iPhones.

II2II 10/24/2024|||
Funny thing is, Apple probably thought the iPod would be a niche product that would only appeal to existing Apple customers when they developed it. If they did not take the risk, they probably wouldn't exist today.

While I don't think the Vision Pro is a good fit for Apple (most of their products are portable, while the Vision Pro is unlikely to have much uptake outside of the home and office), it is hard to gauge whether it would be adopted without actually bringing it to the market.

system2 10/24/2024||
I doubt it. MP3 players were popular when the iPod was released. They just took a share of the pie.
fhdsgbbcaA 10/24/2024||
Son, I’m going to tell you one word that will change this company forever: SERVICES
pjmlp 10/24/2024||
It did change Microsoft, and I am quite sure Apple fans won't appreciate a Windows like experience in the name of SERVICES.
boppo1 10/23/2024||
They should have made an sdk that made it easier to port games (and excel). Iirc you had to use their gesture control, there was no way to use kb+m right? At least with other vr you can create a usable mapping to typical FPS controls.
joshstrange 10/23/2024|
You can connect a trackpad and keyboard to the AVP. Interestingly a trackpad worked but not a mouse. You can also connect a normal controller (like Xbox/PS).
crooked-v 10/23/2024||
Didn't they have a really small number of screens they even ordered in the first place? Did they change their minds from demand, or have they just finally run out of the first production run?
samtheprogram 10/23/2024||
From what I heard, they will ultimately halt production, assuming no major changes in sales, at around 500,000 - 600,000 produced. Based on my understanding of the sales, they will have a considerable number of units still available even if the production stops.
rahoulb 10/24/2024|||
Before its release, I read that Sony had said they could produce 900,000 of the displays per year because the process was so complex. Obviously with 2 displays per device, half that is the maximum number of Vision Pros per year.

I'm guessing Apple and Sony would have invested in improving the process if it had hit expectations.

asadotzler 10/24/2024|||
Sony display had capacity for 1 million screens in 2024. That's 500K devices. They are stopping short of that, but we don't know by how much. I'll estimate 400K devices made and sold in 2024 as the Pro model is sunset and Apple takes a shot at a Quest competitor in the $1000-2000 range.
esskay 10/24/2024||
400k made, sure. Sold? Not likely given we already know they've got a lot of stock. 400k sold would mean they are sold out.

Likely closer to half of that. Dont forget they're still launching it in other countries this year, so they've clearly got ample stock left over.

danpalmer 10/23/2024||
This seems to be specifically a change in the assembly volume. I imagine they have most of the specialist components, such as the screens, already delivered and stored.
koolala 10/23/2024||
Head-mounted hardware needs to iterate fast. No one is happy with a bulky thing on their face. The iPhone moment will be when you don't think twice about wearing one.
indoordin0saur 10/23/2024||
Everyone thought I was crazy for thinking this thing would get no traction. People want to spend less time plugged into screens, not less.
kasperni 10/23/2024||
> Everyone thought I was crazy for thinking this thing would get no traction.

I've yet to find someone who thought a $3500 headset would be a smash hit.

mrguyorama 10/23/2024|||
HN had fifty people in every thread swearing that nobody predicted the iPhone would be a success so we should all shut up and buy or else FOMO.

It was constant and everywhere. Tens of posters who have apparently zero connection to the company Apple other than "They released the iPhone" as if they've never had a high profile flop, as if they've never had only okay sales of a product, as if they've never tried to change the world and failed miserably, as if Apple never misses.

Because of a single damn product release. One time. At the crux of a phase change in the personal digital device world.

Just, utterly divorced from reality. I feel like these posters are half of my company's management team.

rchaud 10/23/2024||
Not to mention the old canard of "Apple doesn't do things first, it does things right", implying AVP success was inevitable, and the chattering classes were too dumb to see it.
rchaud 10/23/2024|||
Read some of the previous threads. There are hundreds of comments of people inventing use cases, that's how bad people want this to succeed. The problem is Apple's ecosystem for AVP is designed around consumer services like Apple TV, rather than the sci-fi fantasies of the average HN reader.
jeswin 10/23/2024|||
> Everyone thought I was crazy for thinking this thing would get no traction. People want to spend less time plugged into screens, not less

Almost everyone I know (and people here on HN) thought this would be niche at $3500. But that doesn't mean people don't want to be plugged into screens. They totally are plugged into screens - just not Vision Pro.

ghusto 10/23/2024||
> They totally are plugged into screens

I've seen a backlash in recent years. Most notably amongst techies, ironically, but more recently in the general public. People are waking up.

bee_rider 10/23/2024||
Maybe? I dunno. I’m tired of my current screens. But I want better ones. I want mass market e-ink monitor and a pair of VR glasses that look like actual glasses. We’re halfway to 2030, where’s the future? I’m still using a laptop, we’ve had those for decades, what gives?
cableshaft 10/23/2024||
> a pair of VR glasses that look like actual glasses

It's getting closer to that, but not quite there yet. There's Bigscreen Beyond out already, and the Immersed Visor is coming up, and they're a lot closer to that than Quest 3 or Apple Vision Pro to glasses (but also either less powerful and/or more expensive).

https://www.bigscreenvr.com/

https://mixed-news.com/en/immersed-visor-next-gen-xr-headset...

Daedren 10/23/2024|||
Or they believe the price to be too high for beta-testing a first-gen Apple device.
rchaud 10/23/2024||
Apple products have been successful specifically because they attract the mass market right away.

Early adopters didn't use iPhones, they used HP iPaqs and Dell Axim PDAs running Windows Mobile. iPhones obsoleted them by simplifying the UI so anybody aged 8-80 could use it.

If an Apple product seems like it's for 'early adopters', it's already failed.

whatever1 10/23/2024|||
We want more screens, just easier to use them. We are too lazy to even stand up to wear a headset. We want them in front of us all the time, everywhere, without moving a finger, instantly!
yunohn 10/23/2024||
I’m perfectly fine with standing up to get and use anything. For me, the problem is that it’s a /headset/ and not something else - as they have a host of ergonomics and comfort issues, causes fatigue and headaches, closes me off from my environment (despite their pass through idea), etc.
duxup 10/23/2024|||
I don't think I saw anyone (media talking heads looking for engagement do not count) who said this product would be popular.
ideashower 10/23/2024|||
AVP user here who is wanting to get less plugged into screens.

What I really mean by that though, is that I want to make my screen time more meaningful. I don’t want to mindlessly scroll, like I often find myself doing, or like I see others doing in places like grocery store lines or on the subway.

The Apple Vision Pro is a very expensive, specialized device. When I use it, it's mostly to watch movies, TV shows, or other immersive content, but it’s still mainly just for entertainment. But I can't just sit in it and disassociate the same way I might my phone--I don't feel that it's built that way.

As for getting no traction, yeah that's correct. It's too expensive. I still love mine.

breck 10/23/2024||
> People want to spend less time plugged into screens, not less.

Yes. I threw my phone away 2.5 years ago (after my 3yo daughter kept saying "no phone dadda") and it has made my life significantly better. Like living in the 1990's again.

In a land of the distracted, the phoneless man is king.

That being said, I think the AVP is very cool technology, and will have important applications in the years ahead. (Just not mass market for a long time, if ever)

Kye 10/23/2024||
Success of every modern attempt at VR hinges on limits of self-expression. Meta's torsoverse and Apple's extension of the office failed while Second Life continues on with a thriving virtual real estate and retail market and VRChat makes commercial deals to support a massive yearly furry convention.
rchaud 10/23/2024|
Second Life doesn't pretend to be anything it's not, so it attracts an audience who want that authenticity.

Apple and Facebook are the polar opposite of that. They look at a product segment and think "How we do sell this to X million people?" Turns out that regular people that buy iPhones and Macbooks, might not be as interested in VR.

aucisson_masque 10/24/2024||
> Some factories suspended production of Vision Pro components as early as May based on Apple's weak sales forecasts, and warehouses remain filled with tens of thousands of undelivered parts.

Next iphone are going to cost more and more, such a failure must have cost them a lot of money.

tropicalfruit 10/24/2024||
classic mistake to sell hardware without a killer app.

well i can't think of a single killer app for this or any VR headset for me.

at $3.5k there is pressure to position this as a leap forward in solutions to non existent problems.

watching films on a flight or using a virtual desktop don't excite most people.

pbmonster 10/24/2024|
> well i can't think of a single killer app for this or any VR headset for me.

For a headset the size of a pair of glasses?

* A well-designed HUD that can seamlessly integrate 95%+ of the "utility functions" (as opposed to entertainment functions) from my phone into my field of vision. Calls, messages, navigation, calendar, notes. I never want to look at my phone unless I'm bored.

* One of those "speed reader" [0] apps that will flicker a message at 600WPM at me. This should probably interface with all long-form text.

* Subtitles/translations for the people I talk to.

* An "offline dating" app that only allows you to swipe people you see

I firmly belive AR is the future of personal computing, but the hardware needs to gain an order of magnitude in capabilities.

[0] https://www.spreeder.com/app.php, but smarter (word groups, adjust displaytime for word complexity)

wkat4242 10/24/2024||
Huh they didn't even bother to sell it in countries like the Netherlands and Spain yet. Weird.
HatchedLake721 10/23/2024|
> People are going to only read the headline and interpret it as “discontinue”. Like the article says, it just means they have enough inventory until they replace it with something cheaper.
surgical_fire 10/24/2024|
This is such an odd take. Like trying to defend Apple from an accusation that was not made - The headline is a good representation of the news; production was suspended because they are sitting on too much unsold stock. Typically in-demand products with limited availability go out of stock fast and don't sit unsold.

This is why it always frustrating to read any negative news on companies like Apple or Tesla. They have some annoyingly sycophantic fanbase that always wants to downplay and misdirect any bad news.

If Microsoft made some AR glasses that sat unsold and they suspended production, no one would show up to say "actually, it is not being discontinued, nothing to see here". Nor should they.

jachee 10/24/2024||
Apple also have some weapons-grade haters out there. Who’ll take even positive news and use it to be divisive and derisive.
surgical_fire 10/24/2024||
So does Microsoft. Or Google. Or Toyota. Or any other sufficiently large company. They are put under proper scrutiny.

But those are not white-knighted by a fanbase that always feel like they need to protect the multi-billion dollar company from negativity.

Using myself as an example, there are companies I like. I happen to like Nintendo for example. I still call a failed product a failure (e.g.: Wii U), and sometimes I even dislike their successful products (I always hated N64 for that retarded controller).

Why Apple "fanbase" abandon all critical thinking is baffling.

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