“Yes, we have a super secret model, for your eyes only, general. This one is definitely not indistinguishable from everyone else’s model and it doesn’t produce bullshit because we pinky promise. So we need $1T.”
I love LLMs, but OpenAI’s marketing tactics are shameful.
I think it’s hilarious that apparently few have learned from Theranos or WeWork.
OpenAI is in a precarious position. Anything less than AGI will make them look like a bust. They are backed into a situation where they are heavily incentivized to lie and Theranos their way out of this and hope they can actually deliver something that resembles their pie in the sky predictions.
We are at the point where GPT-5 is starting to look like the iPhone 5.
Of course the real issue being that Governments have routinely demanded that 1) Those capabilities be developed for government monopolistic use, and 2) The ones who do not lose the capability (geo political power) to defend themselves from those who do.
Using a US-Centric mindset... I'm not sure what to think about the US not developing AI hackers, AI bioweapons development, or AI powered weapons (like maybe drone swarms or something), if one presumes that China is, or Iran is, etc then whats the US to do in response?
I'm just musing here and very much open to political science informed folks who might know (or know of leads) as to what kinds of actual solutions exist to arms races. My (admittedly poor), understanding of the cold war wasn't so much that the US won, but that the Soviets ran out of steam.
Goat: Hey human, why are you creating AI?
Human: Because I can. And I can boast of my greatness. I can use it for money. I can weaponize and us it to dominate and control other humans.
Goat: Why you need all that?
Human: If I don't do it, others will do it and they will dominate me and take away all my stuff. It is not fair.
Goat: So it looks like who-owns-what issue. Did you try not owning stuff?
Nature: Shut up goat. I'm trying to do a big reset here.
Hype affects market value tho, not reality.
You may argue that the trendline of these expectations is moving in the wrong direction and should get longer with time, but that's not immediately falsifiable and you have not provided arguments to that effect.
The burden of proof lies on those with extraordinary claims. I am simply skeptical.