Posted by prawn 4/4/2025
Huge income taxes on low wages and limited wealth tax is not exactly enticing compared to welfare or moving overseas.
Well, not quite that simplistic. And WWI was also pretty brutal for both Britain's situation and outlook.
IIR, Adam Smith was very clear about the differences between healthy, virtuous capitalism, and the evils of maximize-how-much-the-self-serving-rich-can-squeeze-out-of-the-little-people feudalism.
I agree it's concerning that major speeches like this are so hard to find.
Sucked the life out of the middle and lower classes. A progressively weakening economy.
Then Brexit delivered the KO punch.
It's not difficult.
You're welcome.
Young, ambitious people in London are doing fantastic in their jobs and bring so much energy into their careers but are increasingly getting nowhere in their personal lives without help from bank of mum and dad. For many I know, it's driving increased rates of burnout and most are simply checking out of the country for the likes of Dubai/Singapore et al. because they see no desirable alternative.
Those that continue to grind on in London have to choose one of the tradeoffs between getting a home within an hour of their work, getting married or starting a family. To do any of these means drastically cutting back your expenditure, and as a result local independents/ pubs etc start to close down and get replaced by your clone town shops. Planning, gentrification and other reasons also contribute to all of this, but it means grassroots in the country are just getting stamped out and it makes it hard to ever really imagine a 'garage startup' in a cheap part of town being a realistic image.
The problem is though, that because a vast majority of the jobs, institutions and national infrastructure revolves around London, it's hard for any other cities to rise up to provide an alternative. So you get graduates who are ambitious flocking to the city, which attracts their friends and their friends friends. This overflowing workforce attracts more companies, more industries more investment. It creates an unbreakable cycle.
Ultimately the only constraint that faces any city growing like this is physical space. Once that runs out you get all of the negative externalities which are driving productivity. Dislocation of community, 1hr+ commutes wasting 10hrs a week of your most productive populations time, price spikes, increased crime, loss of identity, community and culture, the commercialisation and financialisation of everything and the feeling of everything is at breaking point everyday.
It's a troublesome place to be in. Your creatives and engineers don't have the physical space to tinker with things or to mend stuff, and to hire the space is extremely cost prohibitive. So they end up getting jobs in design agencies or investment banks. They aren't really dealing with physical things anymore and you start to lose sparks of innovation or inspiration. Everyone gets stuck in these bubbles and it impacts the rest of the country.
It's a massive shame, because a good life can be found elsewhere in the UK. Those I know in Manchester earn a combined income of £70-80k, own a 4 bed semi-detached (£350k) in an increasingly popular part of the city. They have a garden and a garage where they tinker with ideas. They learned how to use tools whilst renovating their property. They know their neighbours. They get to the national parks and swim in waterfalls within an hour of their home. Their friends live in adjacent streets and mend cars, join local community groups, share an allotment etc. I'm sort of rambling, but what I'm trying to say is the lack of pressure and the space to breathe is giving them access to experiences and opportunities that a London 5 year qualified grad earning 100k living in a 2 bed high rise flat couldn't even fathom (yet would benefit immensely from). In fact they probably pay £££ to do some basic household tasks in a controlled environment, but it's packaged up as a boozy [insert skill like painting] social event.
What actually needs to happen?
- We need to get our most energetic, creative and inspired people into some of the emerging areas across the UK regions. We need to de-stigmatise 'not moving to London does not mean you're a failure'. We need to drive cultural change through stories, film, music etc to help people imagine what a life elsewhere might feel like. To give them the confidence to revitalise areas in the UK. This will make the move more desirable.
- We need to fundamentally get more jobs and opportunities into our second cities. This will make the move more financially viable.
- To get more jobs into cities, we need to boost populations within 30-45 minutes of the CBD so companies can actually hire for the roles they need. To do that you need to invest in intra-city transport (trams/metros, cycle lanes, bus systems). You could also lean into hybrid more, build HS2 in full, so people can live in the North and go to the office in London twice a week within 1hr 30. You also need to regenerate old mill land thats derelict in the inner city areas, build easy to rent affordable flats so people can move to a city easier and get their bearings before buying. Make it more feasible.
We basically need to realise that the country is nearly 70m people, and to rely on/ only invest in just 8m in the London region to pick up the weight is always going to end badly. I truly believe London is now overheated, and the Richard Florida theory of agglomeration effects is probably now getting diminishing returns.
Tom Forth gets closer to the structural reasons in here: https://tomforth.co.uk/whynorthenglandispoor/
The best way to get young ambitious people to give a shit about the UK again is to make them feel like they have a stake in society. That's becoming more impossible everyday in London due to house prices (the traditional route). Get them into our next cities, founding start ups with less risk (lower costs) or joining local grad schemes with fresh energy, combined with investment into transport, get those cities productivity up and I promise Britain will turn a corner in a decade.
There was a definite split between my friends from south of Birmingham and those north of Birmingham though. The default for those from south of Birmingham seemed to be to move to London whereas for everyone else it was much more 'acceptable' to move to Leeds, Manchester, Nottingham post-University, even >10 years ago.
We already know how to do it all as a country - autonomous light rail, placemaking/ regeneration, connectivity, governance etc - we just have failed to ever do any of it more than once.
I've noticed similar trends re: where people move vs where they're from. A lot of my generation (currently 28-40yo range) were brought up with a 'it's grim up north' mentality and it still persists today. I'm hoping the next generations that make their first visits to alternate cities in the future don't feel the same thanks to the massive improvements seen over the past 10 years.
I still like living here more than other countries I've lived in - friendly people, lovely countryside, NHS. But I must admit housing is, and always has been, an issue.
Councils expanded the number of SEND pupils eligible for free school transport, increasing spending from £9m to £20m - how is that being poor? It’s an improvement in quality of life…? Ok, it might be a waste of money (or might not be) but it’s not a cut is it.
Being poor is like your country sends 10 athletes to the Olympics and they all get eliminated in the heats. No Western nation is actually poor. All Western nations are roughly the same, there’s nothing notable about the UK other than it is towards the richer end and is a cultural superpower.
Because the money is sucked out of the council coffers and they then can't provide a lot of the basics. It's not an improvement in quality for people who are, for instance, not SEND pupils. The point being that more and more expenses like this appear each year and then the budget is gone when it comes to looking after the library, fixing potholes etc, Small every day things that make the country look and feel like it's functioning are ignored until everywhere just feels a bit grim and broken.
I hope this will just be the first step.
I'd say he does bring pretty convincing arguments to the table and his logic does make sense.
if you take all the wealth and give it one group of people who don't put it back into the circulation but rather just invest it, it makes sense that there's no resources left for anyone else and "everyone" else is comparatively poor.
That's a typically successful but dangerous social media recipe.
There is "investment" that doesn't cause more activity, like having a second home for speculation purposes that you keep empty. But in general, investment leads to more production, and ends up creating employment.
Call it biased, but I'm also a priori skeptical of any public intellectual that points to their one pet theory as the cause of society's ills.
https://birchlermuesli.substack.com/p/copy-garys-badeconomic...
Managed to get on Question Time because he's very good at telling people what they want to hear.
First, there are a lot hooligans, drunks and layabouts. In recent years, add in lots of illegal migrants. Many people on social welfare, living in social housing, with either no ability or no desire to better their lot.
Then you have the NHS. Anecdote: one friend with severe back pain from a herniated disk waited a year for surgery. When she was put off again - make due with hot baths - she went out of the country and paid for it privately. That is not first-world health care.
The infrastructure feels like it's crumbling. I particularly remember the rail system, because I commuted weekly by train. They claimed something like a 95% punctuality rate ("excluding conditions not in their control"). In the course of one year, my train arrived on-time exactly once. Not very much is under their control.
Being a DIY type, I was appalled at the building standards. First anecdote: Visiting a friend whose bathroom has just been professionally renovated. They had another electrical plug installed, so the electrician just strung a loose wire across the wall. Then the painter painted over it - not behind it, just over it - so if it shifted you saw the old color.
Second anecdote: the apartment we lived in was in an old building, and water was added later. To get the water pipe into the apartment, they had just bashed a hole in the brick wall above the front door. When we lived there, decades after this had been done, it was still exactly that: a pipe going through a hole bashed in the wall. Oh, and the wallpaper was installed upside-down.
All this grousing shouldn't be taken the wrong way. Britain is a great place to visit, and I enjoyed temporarily living there. But for the average Brit or Scot? By Western standards, Britain is poor.
Yup. It's no understatement to say a good tradesperson is extremely difficult to find. They all charge the inflated going rate regardless of their skill level, as people are desperate. They often get pretty shiry/nasty if you demand things or want to check their work - to keep you afraid and to accept their very subpar work.
Materials are shockingly terrible across the board too
I've been putting off renovations because I've had so, so many bad experiences with tradespeople in the past.
It looks like (just like everywhere else in the world) the rich become waaaayy richer and the rest are taxed/inflated to death. It's not that a house that 'was priced' at GBO 200k is 20 years ago is worth GBP 1.5m. It's not that a house that is 20 years older than before has turned to gold and its value has grown. It is the constant devaluation of the GBP. Brexit simply accelerated an already bad situation. I still wait for Boris Johnson and his team to show us the GBP 350m per week to be redirected to the NHS.
I think that "you will own nothing and be happy" is happening in the UK already with below 35 to never own property (unless inherit it) and by then they have to sell it to have a 'modern' lifestyle.