Posted by perihelions 4/18/2025
Honest question; why does everyone seem to assume the Trump administration will only be another 4 years? Is it hard to imagine him getting a 3rd term, or 4th or 5th?
The reason I ask is because I’m genuinely puzzled by this, not trying to make a political statement. I can’t imagine any incentive for trump to relinquish power so I’d assume he’ll attempt to hold onto it as he did at the end of his last term. Why does no one else acknowledge this nonzero probability? It seems everyone is taking for granted it’s only another 4 years and that makes me wonder if I’m crazy or if everyone else is just saying that because they haven’t thought it through.
https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/
Not saying he won't try to circumvent it (definitely wouldn't be shocked) but if anything would trigger meaningful civil conflict, this would be it. (in my opinion)
Sure, he tried to get Georgia to alter their vote totals so he would be the winner. And when that failed he got states to submit a second slate of electors with him as the victor. But in both those instances somebody didn't yield to him (Kemp, Pence). I have no doubt in 2028 he'll try to obtain a third term; it's just I think there'll be little gain for elected officials to let him.
Brian Kemp is still the Government of Georgia. There's not much reason to expect him to do something different in 4 years. There's also a very large growing backlash to Trump so I don't expect people like DeSantis to stick with him.
Most nations appear to have their own brand of populist hard-right political leaders at the moment and I've cautioned people that unless they know a lot about where they are moving to, they are likely to just be exchanging one scary regime for another and taking on outsider immigrant status in that new society.
I'm genuinely curious about this, no sarcasm of cynicism here.