Posted by _tk_ 6 days ago
They aren't really using VR headsets, right? The FPV goggles I know are just a screen showing the camera image without any virtual reality.
Also it's not like the pilot has to be exposed.
There are dedicated devices for this - much lighter, external battery (same as the drones use), etc. I use a Skyzone 04X.
Seems to be a unique case that worked especially well for (higher end I'm sure) FPV drones. Getting artillery in on shipping containers would have a higher likelihood of detection. Similarly, the ability to 'guide' in the drones with munitions seemed to allow for greater flexibility during the attack and its effectiveness.
I imagine eventually these cheap FPV's will be augmented with low-cost GPU's allowing for running smallish models and self-guided autonomy. This would seem the next evolution where a commander deploys them in bulk and overwhelms the enemy in a way that can't be jammed like radio-communication. Similarly, horrifying when you consider their eventual use in terrorism scenarios...
Most likely it's the first major deployment of their semi autonomous drone tech, driven "declaratively". They've shown that stuff recently, they probably used it before showing it.
I suspect reality is a combination--think RTS game. You give orders to your units but you don't babysit them.
Autonomous control, likely from a base station nearby, or one of their new carrier drones, and remote command.
I disagree with this premise. I suspect that 20 to 30% success rate is not at all bad, but rather excellent. Compare to artillery with shells costing a few thousand each on the low end, to $100k+ for more advanced rounds, with 100s or 1000s fired per casualty.
I guess they must be working for Ukraine, or it wouldn't be buying them. But how well they scale against a competent opponent is less clear.
There was a video of a soldier wading through massive amounts of fiber near the front line. Just imagine that for each drone attack there will be 10-50km of fiber dropped on the landscape. It will not rot and stay there until someone cleans it up.
(If wishes were horses I'd rather Russia hadn't invaded a sovereign country in the first place, but we are where we are)
The fiber-optic drones have small warheads/payloads. They are used to hunt the enemy's EW transmitters. Once the jammers have been suppressed, then the radio-controlled drones with bigger payloads go to work and do the bulk of the damage.
Early on: Drones in war!
Then: Ahh EW makes them useless!
Then: Fiber optics defeat EW!
Then: But you can follow the cable!
Then: But you can try to respool the cable with a power drill!
Every week it seems is a new move.
Next Next up: Decoys.
So then why isn't the West providing them with optical fiber?
These are not inherently valid arguments regarding the effectiveness of drones as a new weapons platform - but with the current state of the technology and with the decisions on the battlefield
It’s early days, the technology will improve and the tactics will be standardized with time and drones will prove to be a dangerously effective tool - which has the additional scary bonus of being cheap and easy to mass produce and deploy
Mortar shells (80mm class) are cheaper, but mortars need to be compared to drone-dropped munitions, not artillery shells - because mortars' range is way shorter than that of an FPV drone and is comparable to the artillery - a good FPV drone - although not the $500 one - can cover about the median artillery firing range of this war (16km).
Drones bring about more casualties and are used wider exactly because they are more cost-efficient.
Sure, maybe. Or maybe it will be like Musk announcing what Teslas will be capable of in 6 months. We don't know, and the author doesn't pretend that they do. Don't forget that drones have been used in this war for years, and the vast majority of the drone industry has already pivoted to the military because it's easier to make money there. So it's not exactly "brand new technology".
But my point is that the author just says "from what I've seen, here is how it looks". And it seems like it has value.
3 years of usage is brand new. Neither Ukraine nor Russia have been designing and producing purpose-built FPV drones since the beginning (I assume things are well underway now). It's a bunch of consumer shit thrown together, which makes it kind of incredible that they work as well as they do.
An equivalent would be something like taping an assault rifle to a small Cessna and dominating with that. And then you saying that "maybe the technology will not improve".
Usage, sure. But the technology is not. Those drones are flying smartphones. We have already had mass-produced consumer drones for more than a decade. We don't use them because they are new, we use them because they are cheap and accessible.
I am not sure what you call "consumer shit" here. They go for cheap FPV drones precisely because they are cheap. But the autopilot running in them can fly a Cessna. We can make them fly longer (they will be bigger), we can use better radios, we can add thermal cameras and bigger payloads. We can add GPUs and AI capabilities. All that we have, but then it doesn't cost 500$ anymore.
> An equivalent would be something like taping an assault rifle to a small Cessna and dominating with that.
Or maybe you see an assault rifle and say "Look at this rifle; it's only the beginning! In a couple years it will have wings and it will drop heavy bombs before returning to base, because it will be reusable". And I'm saying: we already have fighter jets; they are just more expensive.
From where I stand, you're calling "consumer shit thrown together" something you apparently don't really know, and then you make predictions from it.
You seem to think that this ragtag level of warfare between Russia and Ukraine is somehow indicative of what the limit of NATO-level militaries is. I'd say "we'll see", but hopefully we never have to find out.
There was a part before the "or" :-). I did not predict anything, I said "maybe, maybe not". And you told me it was "bad reasoning".
My point was that the article says that drones have a ton of limitations in 2025, and many comments here say "yeah but that's because it's just the beginning". Drone manufacturers have been looking at the military for longer than 3 years, because that's easy money. Saying that "this is just consumer shit thrown together" sounds like you haven't really followed the drone industry in the last 15 years.
Sometimes the problem is not time or money.
The derisive way of putting the alternative (Musk's proven trash announcements) indicates that you were arguing a certain side. It definitely wasn't neutral.
> And you told me it was "bad reasoning".
The bad reasoning is what you're basing the (let's say) doubt on. You seem to know that a lot of technological progress has happened in the military FPV drone industry, but the article and described limitations are about (again) consumer level shit thrown together, not the advanced FPV drones that exist today.
Perhaps the conclusion should be that a lot of the problems described in the article are already solved, but that Ukraine (and Russia) couldn't get their hands on enough of the more capable FPV drones due to those being too expensive or not produced in large enough quantities.
Yes, that's what I think. And I believe that's what the article says: "The FPV drones we currently use are not ideal".
Then people say "yeah but they will improve", to which I answer: "or maybe not so much". Simply because better systems already exist, are mass-produced and are more expensive.
When people say "the technology will improve", I think they're usually referring to the drones currently in use becoming much better not due to breakthroughs in technology, but by applying existing technology more effectively for military purposes. Current military drones used in Ukraine are inefficient conversions of civilian products that were never meant to operate under jamming, leave as small thermal signature as possible, etc. Original military designs, which are optimized for the battlefield rather than the local dog park, can be significantly better.
Are you sure about that? Many drone companies have been engineering for the military for years before the Ukraine invasion in 2022.
The thing is, those FPV drones are super, super, super cheap. We do have better technology, it does exist. But it is more expensive. Is it worth it then? That's the question.
Meanwhile, we have cheap FPV drones that have proven themselves in combat, but they remain toys upgraded with 3D-printed parts by tinkerers. They haven't been repackaged into proper military products and adapted for mass manufacturing.
The sweet spot between a toy and a $20k+ product from a military supplier remains largely unaddressed. It's like the early days of personal computing when some people had already assembled working machines in their garages and demonstrated their usefulness, but there were no rugged and standardized mass-market versions yet that could be ordered by the hundreds of thousands.
Aside from radio jamming, I have not seen an actual defense against a strong EMP.
To defend against an EMP wiping out your drone swarm, you would have to invest in shielding etc which would remove them from the class of small cheap drones.
Idk if anyone can speak about this, but to me this doesn't seem like a problem that these types of drones can overcome.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/world-wont-end-danger...
Thr tldr would be "temper expectations"
Mortar may be 5 times cheaper but 100x easier to destroy it and its crew.
Also half of the problems described are purely technical and can be easily solved with some budget. In Ukraine most drones are assembled by volunteers. So its not the reliability of drone that is an issue, its lack of proper assembly and QA.
These things are pretty much the same thing (a thing that can be carried by a man that accurately puts a warhead on a target) just better and more expensive.
edit: Actually the NLOS might not be man portable, but there are other smaller Spike missiles that are.
Imagine what China can pull off here in case they're in a war.
Even if they win the war, they still eventually will have lost.
Which one you think is worse?
Also, most wealthy industrialized western nations have the same fertility issues, some are only compensating by huge legal and ilegal immigration which can be causing bigger domestic economic and societal issues than being involved in a war abroad. The west and its values, as we used to know it, is also dying.
Nobody can. And it's not like they don't want to. Neither the very traditional and religious Arabic countries like Saudi Arabia (2.14, barely above replacement, and trending down), nor a country like Norway, which can afford the best social program in the world. All have fertility troubles. Urban lifestyle just does fertility in.
Yeah you can, they just don't want to because it will be at the cost of short term corporate economic growth.
>And it's not like they don't want to.
They don't want to compromise short term corporate profits. They want to have their cake and eat it too.
>nor a country like Norway, which can afford the best social program in the world
Social programs don't mean shit if nobody can afford to buy urban real estate in the big cities where the jobs are. Norway has different issues than Japan. Every country has different issues.
Really? Can you name one developed country besides Israel that has succeeded?
>Social programs don't mean shit if nobody can afford to buy urban real estate in the big cities where the jobs are
The Government Pension Fund Global (Statens pensjonsfond utland), also known as the Oil Fund (Oljefondet), was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum sector. As of June 2025, it had over US$1.9 trillion in assets.
Price of a 3 bedroom house in Oslo: $1.5M
$1.9T / $1.5M = 1.266M houses
Population of Norway is 5.6M
Do you have a better argument than housing affordability?
How would they succed when they're not doing anything to succeed?
>Do you have a better argument than housing affordability?
How many families in Oslo can easily afford a 1.5 M apartment?
Japan is stuck in the 90's with no hope for the future and they will be even less relevant then they are now within 1 generation.
Japan is absolutely not "doing strong" for the next 50 years or so and the same will happen to China. If you have no people, you have no future. As simple as that.
And how does the fact that it "will still take decades" suddenly make it OK for the country? Also if you shrink a population by 50% within decades it will completely destroy the economy (and military and culture). You can't just half the population that fast and expect things to just carry on as normal or magically recover.
I do expect the crime rate is higher than most Japanese cities - culturally it's very very different. I don't feel like it's a "pvp" situation though (from a violence perspective; rampant, unbridled capitalism +consumerism in the US gives me pvp vibes for general living) and the streets aren't full of shit.
I like LA, especially the beach and other very nice areas (obviously). I also think I'd probably prefer living in a Japanese city though so maybe you're right in the end.
Moving the slider up (MORE children) is the hard part.
At this point, the question becomes the price.
If you can afford* the Javelins and the TOW's of the world that's what you are going to use otherwise, you are stuck with FPVs.
Afford means not only fiscally, but production capacity wise as well.
Most of them would not apply when military finally catches up, starts producing war fpv drones and make good drone pilot training programs