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Posted by Aloisius 4 days ago

US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates(apnews.com)
359 points | 163 commentspage 2
dr-detroit 4 days ago|
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throwaway2087 4 days ago||
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NaOH 4 days ago||
As a new account, it'd probably be best to familiarize yourself with the site guidelines. For example,

>Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.

>Omit internet tropes.

>Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

throwaway5752 4 days ago|||
While I think this is borderline in terms of following guidelines, it is much more concerning that the comment accurately quoted the source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/trump-effect-hig...

nickff: I agree it was borderline. My sentiment was closer to suggesting we look past tone to how shocking the content is. The human brain tries to normalize things, but a statement like this would have been unprecedented before 2016. People would have resigned or been fired, it would have been a scandal.

nickff 4 days ago||
I think the comment you replied to was criticizing the "/rofl". These shallow reaction/dismissal comments really are turning this site into the hell-hole that Reddit already is.
affinepplan 4 days ago||
Leavitt's statement doesn't deserve further scrutiny beyond shallow dismissal.
NaOH 4 days ago|||
>The most important principle on HN, though, is to make thoughtful comments. Thoughtful in both senses: civil and substantial.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html

nickff 4 days ago|||
The top-level comment added nothing to the conversation that this site is supposed to be about. We are supposed to assume that commenters read thee article, and if they did, a LOL, ROFL, or WTF doesn't move the conversation forward.
tzs 4 days ago|||
The quote in the top-level comment from the White House is not in the article [1], so I'm having trouble understanding your point.

[1] right now. It is possible it was in an earlier version of the article.

op00to 4 days ago|||
This whole thread adds nothing to the conversation.

Downvote as you choose and move on. Maybe I ought to take my own advice.

IncreasePosts 4 days ago||||
Realistically, it's not a new user, since they're making a throwaway. It's someone on the site that just didn't want this post associated with their main account.
micromacrofoot 4 days ago|||
Are we considering propaganda work now?
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 4 days ago||
> especially

The problem with shallow dismissals in general is that it is a low bar for a comment. The problem with shallow dismissals in the context of someone else's work is that it's invalidating something which should be celebrated. They're both problems for different reasons. A comment explaining why one thinks the quote is ridiculous is more substantive than simply laughing at it.

mindslight 4 days ago||
> A comment explaining why one thinks the quote is ridiculous is more substantive than simply laughing at it.

The problem is if you do the work of analyzing the overt liars' statements, people will then pick on that for being too inflammatory. Never mind the downvotes from the true believers that are still gulping down the Kool-aid.

micromacrofoot 4 days ago||
the paradox of tolerance, basically

if you treat all this information as equally deserving of respect, then you spend all your time with a flood of intentional nonsense

mindslight 3 days ago||
I think it's a different dynamic, but leads to many of the same conclusions. Crucially, needing to reintroduce longer running identities/nyms/authorities of speakers such that they can build up trust rather than discussion being a structureless deluge.

I remember back in the age of dinosaurs, when HN made it a point of turning usernames lighter grey so comments would stand on their own. It made sense at the time for all of us coming up on the early Internet where humans were scarce and if someone was speaking you could assume not just that they were doing so in good faith (modulo mental illness), but that they were somewhere between higher intelligence and a bona fide leader in their field. This is laughably naive today, even more so with the rise of LLM slop.

Of course the major immediate problem here is the propagandists have set up shop in one of the key authorities of our society, and are still fueled by a crowd that still thinks they're supporting some kind of "independent thinking" revolution rather than totalitarian Party-allegiance-first regime akin to the Soviet Union, to a larger degree than "the woke" ever was. Navarro's bizzarro-universe economics and "anti-woke" applied to research/academics are basically our modern Lysenkoism. Same shit, different time period.

chrisco255 4 days ago|||
This GDP print is mostly statistical fluke from excessive imports ahead of tariffs, way too early to be dancing on graves.
piker 4 days ago|||
None of those are negated by a lower GDP number to be fair.
mdorazio 4 days ago|||
The current White House press statements are often bullshit, but most of the above statement is at least directionally true. Unemployment is still at historically low levels and has been flat for a year. US Real Average Hourly Earnings are up, and the latest CPI data shows a 12-month inflation rate of 2.4% (not seasonally adjusted).
einrealist 4 days ago|||
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nh23423fefe 4 days ago||
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vaadu 4 days ago||
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gcommer 4 days ago||
The article never claims tariffs going into effect caused the Q1 issues.
mcphage 4 days ago||
What news source you do think is not a propaganda outlet?
coombos 4 days ago||
NPR. Al Jazeera. Reuters. BBC.

But I already know you’re going to shit on those. People like you who ask that question aren’t asking in good faith.

xracy 4 days ago||
This is needlessly combative. They were asking a different person this question...

But a better question might be. "Why is apnews an unreliable source for this information."

General distrust of a news outlet doesn't mean that the given article is false. I've seen some questionable shit from the BBC, though I generally trust them.

joering2 4 days ago|
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viraptor 4 days ago||
How does this story match up with https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43590072 where you post after the tariff announcement (April 4th):

> Noone in their right mind will start building factories in USA because of temporary tariffs that all might go away with an executive order and a stroke of a pen comes January 2029.

(I checked because the story just smells weird...)

louthy 4 days ago|||
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stevenwoo 4 days ago||
I think a key thing is he often states multiple sides of an issue depending upon the audience and even people who I’ve seen interviewed who heard both say they just disregard the parts they disagree with - it’s a level of cognitive dissonance approaching double think in 1984, IMHO.
bcrosby95 4 days ago|||
> I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs. I was very much wrong.

Even if you assumed that, you started at step 1 and didn't think past that.

Let's assume China pays the tariff. Is China going to eat that? They will probably pass it onto the seller.

OK now what? Let's say before the tariffs, their total unit cost is $5, and they sell it to you for $10 (I'm just making stuff up here).

Tariffs were 145% at some point. So China pays $14.50. China passes it onto the seller, now the total unit cost is $19.50. They lost $9.50.

Are they in the business to lose money with every sale? No.

However, that presents a problem. The tariff they paid? It's higher than the price they sold it to you. That will remain the same regardless of the price you have to pay. Even if they charged you $1mil, they could not make a profit, because the tariff would be $1.45mil.

So, yeah, you were very much wrong. The idea is not only unrealistic, it is mathematically impossible if the goal is to actually make money when tariffs are 100% or more.

kccoder 4 days ago||
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unsnap_biceps 4 days ago|||
Even if China paid the tariffs, how did you expect it to work? The manufacturers would just eat the entire fee and give you stuff for under cost?
MangoCoffee 4 days ago|||
Chinese manufacturers will split the fee with buyers when the tariff rate is modest and doesn't eat too much into their profit.
spiderfarmer 4 days ago||
The rate isn’t modest so the straw already broke the camel’s back.
mindslight 4 days ago||||
Yes, because we're supposed to believe that China having a surplus of manufactured goods constitutes a liability, and our need for manufactured goods constitutes a strength. So with our good strong healthy mentally competent leader, China will soon be paying us to take their products. Noted experts like Ron Vara have explained this in depth. </s>
Herring 4 days ago||||
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grg0 4 days ago|||
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mikestew 4 days ago|||
I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs.

“Man on the street” doesn’t know how tariffs work (or at least believes the bullshit), and I’m not surprised. But I’m truly surprised that someone running a business fell for this, especially given the person saying it.

rsynnott 4 days ago||
This was somewhat common with Brexit; small business owners promoting Brexit, then suffering or going out of business when it actually happened. It's even less excusable in this case, though; the reasons that a hard-but-not-no-deal Brexit (which is what the final result was) are bad for businesses, and particularly small businesses, are often at least somewhat subtle and non-obvious (to the extent that _new_ problems which economists hadn't really predicted are still being discovered), whereas it's hard to imagine something simpler than "making stuff more expensive to buy is bad for people who buy stuff".
eightman 4 days ago|||
> I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs. I was very much wrong.

How do you run a business that relies on imports and not know how tariffs work?

spacechild1 4 days ago|||
> I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs

You have been importing parts from China, yet you didn't know how tariffs work? I have a hard time believing this.

sephamorr 4 days ago|||
So you employed 45 employees to do assembly work but bought each of 2000 parts one at a time so the processing fees were meaningful? Surely if the revenue supports that staffing, you should import by the pallet or container?
danielodievich 4 days ago|||
>I assumed, like President said

Like all the other sibling comments, just... sigh.

I did not assume any such thing.

My current home remodeling project with new siding and windows and so on, I've had to pay ~$2K extra in tariffs on just the materials for my soffits (planks of Canadian cedar). Boils my blood in anger.

forty 4 days ago|||
Since there was a lot of confusion in some people/president heads about VAT: this is more or less the equivalent of Sales Tax that you can have in the US. The rate is different depending on which country you are in (in France the main rate for most products is 20%).

If you are traveling or sell in Europe: in Europe, it is generally expected (or even mandatory) that customers are displayed the price all taxes included.

youngtaff 4 days ago|||
In the UK retailers that sell to consumers must include VAT in the listed price

Companies selling to other companies normally use an ex VAT price and then VAT is added on top

rsynnott 4 days ago|||
> in Europe, it is generally expected (or even mandatory) that customers are displayed the price all taxes included.

It's mandatory to include VAT in displayed consumer prices, yeah. In some countries there are _other_ point of sale fees which may not have to be displayed, though; in particular deposit return fees for cans and bottles often aren't displayed.

SrslyJosh 4 days ago|||
> I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs.

Why would they pay a tax that's levied by the US government? In both the most literal sense, and in the sense of keeping their prices the same.

spiderfarmer 4 days ago||
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rsynnott 4 days ago|||
> I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs. I was very much wrong.

... Wait, why did you assume that? Like, you looked at, in one corner, essentially every economist in the world, and on the other corner ol' Minihands, with his background in failing to sell steak and run casinos, and thought "yeah, this guy's probably right"?

I'm genuinely kind of fascinated; was this a kind of active "expertise is bad, people who don't know anything are more likely to be right about things than experts in those things" thing?

> and even with 24% VAT (local tax) it is way cheaper to produce your merch and then send it to USA

If you are paying VAT on product which you are then exporting to the US, then you need to urgently talk to an accountant. You should likely not be paying this, and depending on the country you may have a limited window to reclaim such overpayment.

tonyedgecombe 4 days ago|||
>even with 24% VAT

If you are buying your finished goods from Europe you shouldn't be paying VAT.

danans 4 days ago|||
> The only inconvenience is the package takes about 10 days of delivery, no other differences. My company located in Texas is letting go the final employees at the end of this month, some 45 emps.

That's sad for those employees in Texas, but relatedly, why were you manufacturing in Texas before? Was it just quick delivery or were labor rates lower in Texas?

Based on your description, your product sounds like it requires highly skilled assembly labor.

How much would labor rates have to fall in Texas for you to move manufacturing back despite the tariffs?

platevoltage 4 days ago|||
You should really assume by default that whatever that guy says, the opposite is true. Don't give any money to anyone claiming to be a Nigerian Prince.
AshleyGrant 4 days ago|||
> I assumed, like President said, that it will be China, not me, who pays the tariffs. I was very much wrong.

Folks were screaming it from the rooftops for months prior to the election. So many folks, yourself included, refused to accept reality and now we all suffer the pain.

I would say "Maybe folks will learn!" But I know they won't. US voters as a bloc seem to have an incredibly short memory. They'll forget about all of this pain and stupidity within moments of Trump leaving office.

grg0 4 days ago||
Bonhoeffer's theory of stupidty is relevant here: https://www.onthewing.org/user/Bonhoeffer%20-%20Theory%20of%...
sorcerer-mar 4 days ago|||
This is amazing, thank you for sharing!

> The fact that the stupid person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent. In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with a person, but with slogans, catchwords and the like, that have taken possession of him. He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being.

I spend a lot of time (too much, apparently) chatting with MAGA folks and this is a stunningly accurate description. It really is just pre-programmed slogans. You see it now even in Congressional hearings of cabinet members, which is fucking horrifying.

grg0 3 days ago||
The guy isn't a random broccoli either, he's got some history. If you found that interesting, you might want to check out his other works.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dietrich_Bonhoeffer

reciprocity 4 days ago|||
I appreciate you posting this link.
83457 4 days ago|||
Are you saying that a $1000 box of 100 widgets imported from China has a $1700 processing fee on top of the tariff?
kotlip 4 days ago|||
Why Europe? Did you consider moving production to Mexico or Canada instead to keep your delivery time lower?
botro 4 days ago|||
Thanks for sharing your real world experience, it helps in seeing how regular folk are affected by policy decisions.

I understand from your post that you are a business person, buying product, performing value added services and selling for profit. Although I know little about business, I would guess that if one of your suppliers raised the prices on one of the inputs to your finished goods, you would likely increase the price of your product to preserve your profits and continue your business as a venture. I would guess that you would not pay the additional cost out of your own pocket.

My question is; why did you not expect the same logic to play out in the tariffs situation? That any country would pay the additional cost of doing business out of their own pocket and not pass it on to the consumer?

slaw 4 days ago|||
Why don't you move jobs to China if you assemble Chinese parts
shadowgovt 4 days ago|||
Sorry about the bad experience.

What this administration's model of tariffs completely misses is how fungible labor and manufacturing are in the world now. Business is as much about strength of information as strength of arm or strength of steel. It's hard to believe they had any professionals in the room when they came up with this "protectionist" scheme.

A good analogy a friend once gave me was that there are two ways to build a car in the US. You can tool up an industry ecosystem where you can gather (or produce) base materials and then shape and combine them into small parts, make the small parts into larger parts, do final assembly, and roll them off an assembly line. Or, you can take about as much land as you'd use for that, maybe a bit less, and grow corn. Lots of corn. Lots and lots of corn. Then you put that corn on a boat. Ten months later, that boat comes back with cars on it.

When the world is that varied a place, one country trying to jam its finger in the dkye via tariffs is a fool's errand. The economy will interpret artificial cost as damage and route around it.

walls 4 days ago|||
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abtinf 4 days ago||
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bigstrat2003 4 days ago||
It is deeply uncharitable to assume that someone is willfully ignorant. And frankly it is toxic to polite discussion to make accusations like that. Please consider extending charity to people if your goal is to have a constructive discussion rather than a quarrel.
watwut 4 days ago|||
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Herring 4 days ago|||
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