Top
Best
New

Posted by c249709 3 days ago

The Fed says this is a cube of $1M. They're off by half a million(calvin.sh)
1453 points | 546 commentspage 5
moralestapia 3 days ago|
Hey, this is great.

>It’s stupidly simple: upload an image, click to drop a dot, and it tells you how many you’ve placed. That’s it. But somehow, nothing like it existed.

A small related story.

I once was an intern on a bioscience laboratory that was working with maize. My very intern-y job was to count the number of white spots on the leaves of like ... thousands of plants.

Improvement # 1 (not by me but a colleage), we scanned the plants, on a regular flatbed scanner, they were small enough to fit in.

Improvement # 2 (this one was me), the plan was to automatically count all the spots with CV but it wasn't really working that well; it was back in 2012 and the algos were not that good, they still missed some and we needed to be as accurate as possible. I ended up doing a web app very similar to the one in the article, you just loaded an image and start tagging stuff and at the end it gave you a count for each type of spot you tagged ...

... then we spent weeks scanning and tagging plants full-time :'(.

JadeNB 3 days ago||
Why in the world would you use KaTeX to write a number that is just being used as a number, not part of a mathematical formula? But, if you must, at least use some tricks to make the spacing work correctly: since TeX treats `,` as `mathpunct`, you need to use something like `\$1{,}000{,}000` (or change its catcode) to get something that renders as a plain old non-KaTeXed "$1,000,000" would.
c249709 3 days ago|
thanks for the tip! I just wanted all the numbers to look the same
JadeNB 3 days ago||
Oh, that makes sense! I was so caught up on the article beginning that way that it didn't occur to me that there'd be formulas later on, and it makes sense to want the numbers to appear the same in and out of formulas. Thank you for fixing the spacing, and nice article!
citizenpaul 3 days ago||
Meanwhile I'm in a debate about the effectiveness/competence of government workers on another post.

I realize the fed is not technically a government agency.

fires10 3 days ago|
I do not understand the claim the Fed is not a government agency?
darkstar999 3 days ago|||
> Although an instrument of the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve System considers itself "an independent central bank because its monetary policy decisions do not have to be approved by the president or by anyone else in the executive or legislative branches of government, it does not receive funding appropriated by Congress, and the terms of the members of the board of governors span multiple presidential and congressional terms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve

burnt-resistor 3 days ago||||
They're an IA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_agencies_of_the_Un...

The for-profit ones (Amtrak, USPS, etc.) are called SOEs.

The loan-related ones (Freddie Mae) are called GSEs.

chrisweekly 3 days ago||
IA - Independent Agency
scrozier 3 days ago||
Thank you. While abbreviations are handy for those in the know, it's so helpful for general readers if one takes a moment to spell things out.
Dilettante_ 3 days ago||
Respectfully, there's a Wikipedia link.
scrozier 3 days ago||
Absolutely. And thank you for that.
citizenpaul 3 days ago||||
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve

Although an instrument of the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve System considers itself "an independent central bank because its monetary policy decisions do not have to be approved by the president or by anyone else in the executive or legislative branches of government, it does not receive funding appropriated by Congress, and the terms of the members of the board of governors span multiple presidential and congressional terms."[11]

whatevertrevor 3 days ago|||
The Federal Reserve is an independent bank. An important detail the current US administration does not like.
stephen_g 3 days ago||
It's "independent" of the Government in the way that Congress could just legislate them to not be independent anymore tomorrow if they felt like it...
erk__ 3 days ago||
At the complete other end there is this art piece which should contain a total of $84,000 in Danish kroner and euros, but contains a grand total of $0:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jens-haaning-take-the-money-and...

tonymet 3 days ago||
counting things are a huge intellectual blind spot. For some reason, when people hear a figure, they accept it as gospel.

sums, averages, population, budgets, spending, rates.

Counting things is time consuming and error prone. Ask a casino. You can have 3 people count something and come to a different figure off by a few percent.

Seriously if someone says there's $1m in there, who is going to second guess? Thankfully this guy did.

IAmBroom 3 days ago||
> Ask a casino. You can have 3 people count something and come to a different figure off by a few percent.

That seems a wildly unlikely idea: Despite having three people checking sums, their daily profits have a few percent unknown variability in them.

Banks of old would famously make their tellers stay late to track down rather trivial discrepencies, probably as a deterrent to carelessness.

Cite?

tonymet 3 days ago||
why do you think businesses willingly pay visa 3-5%? *and get paid a month in arears ? * and take on more tax liability
jjk166 3 days ago||
Because they were spending more money on having their personnel tracking down these mistakes. /s

The real reason is that payment processors like visa have a large network which is both technically challenging to maintain and has a massive barrier to entry to replicate. There are competitors but these are typically for niche applications, some of which are operated by banks, but beating visa and mastercard at their own game is no small task.

tonymet 3 days ago||
You're not considering cash losses.

In other words these businesses know that paying visa and getting paid late is worth it because they are losing well more than 5% to losses (bad accounting & theft)

carefulfungi 2 days ago|||
Tell me you've never worked as a cashier ...

NRF reports that total retail shrinkage in 2021 was 1.44% - from all sources.

> The survey found that the average shrink rate in 2021 was 1.44%, a slight decrease from the last two years but comparable to the five-year average of 1.5%

Apparently the most recent survey was 1.66%..

https://invue.com/resource-center/blog/6-retail-shrinkage-st...

jjk166 3 days ago|||
I call bullshit on that. Show me the evidence.
tonymet 3 days ago||
it's self evident context boy
jjk166 3 days ago||
If it's self evident it should be very easy to provide evidence of its truth, so do so.
klank 3 days ago|||
People, as a group, trust numbers. Individuals, often, do not.

Pick any industry which revolves around something, I assure you there is a child-industry dedicated to providing the technology and infrastructure to count the things.

Heck, accounting, as a general purpose, applies to every profession, profession, is at its core, focused on counting things.

Hopefully this doesn't come across as argumentative. Your comment caused me to reflect on how you're right, we trust so much when it comes to numbers people tell us. But at the same time, we don't as evidenced by the vast amount of industry we dedicate to counting all that we do, whatever it is.

tonymet 3 days ago||
accounting / auditing is a good example. I review public finances. Many public agencies don't pass audits. Even those that do, wouldn't pass the smell test.

An audit just means "it looks like you are recording things" but it doesn't mean "it looks like you are spending money wisely.".

Patrons see "passed audit" and assume the agency is run well.

burningChrome 3 days ago||
Makes you wonder if all those pallets of cash we sent Iran really contained all the money we said it did. Also makes me wonder how you count money that arrives on pallets like that? Do you set up a warehouse full of money counters?
toast0 3 days ago|||
A quick look around says commercially available bill counters count around 1000 bills per minute. Low cost counters have batch sizes of around 200 bills. Larger capacity counters are available.

Assuming the process keeps a single counter running continuously, it would be 1000 minutes, not quite 17 hours of work to do a single pass counting with one counter. There's a maintenance interval though. Some of the counters will scan serial numbers, so you could probably confirm you saw 1 Million distinct serial numbers while scanning. Multiple counters in parallel would reduce the wall clock time, of course. And you might want to do multiple counts, sometimes bills stick.

You could also count the number of straps and take a random sample to count. While counting the straps, you'd probably notice any grossly miscounted straps. If any of the sampled straps are wrong, you would presumably increase the sample rate to confirm. Weighing groups of 10 straps is probably faster than counting, but I don't know how sensitive it would be (depends on how consistent weights of the strapping material is, as well as weight of circulated bills).

klank 3 days ago||
While doing work for hospitality optimization software, I had the fortune of seeing some of the cash management infrastructure at gaming trade shows.

I wish I remembered more specific details, but I at least assume similar levels of capacity for bill counting and counterfeit detection are available to nation states. Verifying the cash would be even easier and faster than you're describing.

lrivers 3 days ago||||
<Cue Borat impression>My wife</end> works at a legit, long-established, high volume retail store. Some of the time she keeps books there. They just weigh money, it’s accurate enough for them.
pjc50 3 days ago|||
Iraq, and no. Almost certainly the biggest undetected heist in history.
ahazred8ta 3 days ago||
2016: "The Obama administration is acknowledging its transfer of $1.7 billion to Iran earlier this year was made entirely in cash" -- We froze a bunch of their money in the 70s; Obama unfroze it.
absoflutely 3 days ago||
...as part of the Iran nuclear deal that Trump reversed for no reason.
elif 3 days ago||
I thought, i've seen GPT nail estimations like this, what could go wrong?

4o: that's $25.7 million

Is the idea of the exhibit that the cube is empty other than the outside edges?

Mr beast routinely has a million dollars as a prop and it's significantly smaller than this, and cubed values go up FAST

tenuousemphasis 3 days ago|
Mr Beast probably doesn't use $1 bills.
thisisauserid 3 days ago||
On the other hand, due to the provenance of the cube, the whole thing would sell for a lot more than $1 million.

Jack Binion's sister, Becky Behnen, famously sold million-dollar display of one hundred $10,000 bills in '99 for (a rumored) $4 million to the currency dealer Jay Parrino.

(Supposedly) one of those $10,000 bills was posted on eBay for $160,000.

hakfoo 2 days ago|
$10,000 notes carry a substantial premium for collectors.

I find it funny they still advertise having a display of a million dollars, but in boring modern notes. Didn't even bother to look for it even though I walked past the place like 15 times on a Vegas trip, and literally went into the building for a cheap breakfast.

The Bureau of Engraving and Printing had a similar glass box filled with uncut sheets of $10 notes when I visited in 2016.

JoeAltmaier 3 days ago||
My bank had a little class dome full of shredded money - like the ones that cover a mantle clock? Tall, under a foot. A million in hundred dollar bills is a stack four feet high. Puffy shredded bills? Either they were thousand dollar bills, or the sign was just a wild guess, and very wrong.
omoikane 3 days ago||
The dot counting tool is kind of neat, but I guess most people didn't need it because if they see a large enough pile of something, they assume it's roughly what they expected (as opposed to "does this bag of candy really contain 30 servings like it says on the package? Let me get a count!")
jrflowers 3 days ago|
A box with one and a half million dollars in it does contain a million dollars. It just also contains another half million dollars.

Like if I had a box with an apple and pear in it, I could put up a little plaque saying “There is an apple in this box” and it would be a completely accurate statement

More comments...