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Posted by yowzadave 3 days ago

American science to soon face its largest brain drain in history(bigthink.com)
133 points | 118 commentspage 2
bgwalter 3 days ago|
[flagged]
tomhow 3 days ago||
Please don't post inflammatory comments like this on HN. Please make an effort to observe the guidelines, especially these ones:

Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.

Eschew flamebait.

Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

apical_dendrite 3 days ago|||
> How many of those were hired due to diversity programs?

This is an incredibly obnoxious and uninformed comment. NASA does not hire incompetent people because of "diversity".

> The parallel with Hitler really does not apply. The US won't be sending scientists working on nuclear weapons, stealth aircraft or profitable endeavors like GPUs.

Also an uninformed comment. The physicists that came to the US and UK and then worked on weapons programs were not for the most part working on weapons programs in Germany. They were just able to transfer those skills into the Manhattan Project, radar, or other programs.

the_snooze 3 days ago|||
It's also a very shortsighted view. R&D isn't just a bunch of eggheads grinding out a cleary-defined end like, say, nuclear weapons and making it happen. It's thousands of unseen shots on goal, most of which miss, but you get a handful of high-leverage innovations out of it.

What this pullback in US scientific funding does is reduce the number of those shots on goal. It undoes what the US prioritized from World War II onwards: that scientific innovation is foremost a strategic asset, not strictly a moneymaking venture. You saw that on display with the recent B-2 sorties over Iran: those could not have happened if not for highly specialized researchers slowly contributing to that body of work over decades.

bgwalter 3 days ago|||
?
apical_dendrite 3 days ago||
I don't even know what you mean by "let those kind of people go". If they can't get funding, they won't become scientists in the first place. If they lose funding, the US can't just prevent them from moving overseas. It's (still) a free country! And a large proportion of them are foreign-born anyway.

Geoff Hinton couldn't get a job doing AI research in his native UK, so he moved to the US, where there were a lot more opportunities. At that time, neural networks weren't seen as particularly promising. Decades later, it paid off big. That's the kind of thing that will happen less and less (or work in reverse, with US researchers taking jobs overseas) since there will be far fewer funding opportunities.

sxcurry 3 days ago||
[flagged]
tomhow 3 days ago||
> Please take a deep breath and think next time before you post such an ignorant statement.

You can't comment like this on HN, no matter what you're replying to. We've had to ask you before to avoid personal swipes in comments, going back many years. Please take a moment to remind yourself of the guidelines and make an effort to observe them in future.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

mensetmanusman 3 days ago||
This is good for the world. Hyper concentration of talent reduces diversity.
tyre 3 days ago||
Counterpoint: concentration of talent is incredibly valuable for humankind.
behringer 3 days ago||
They're concentrating in China. It's just that the US won't be that location of talent.
mensetmanusman 3 days ago||
Good, China needs talent not wasted on optimizing a police state.
hayst4ck 3 days ago|||
The economic concept of economies of scale dictates that the more researchers there are in one location, the more efficiently they are likely able to research.
mensetmanusman 3 days ago||
It also destabilizes areas with brain drain resulting in economic destruction and mass migration (one of the factors destroying Europe).
burnt-resistor 3 days ago||
Diversity of what (identity or thought), who, and/or where?

Silicon Valley, the population of ordinary people residing there, 10 years ago (2015), heaved diversity. In corporate employment, it took decades to break through gender and race ceilings in industry to various degrees, but it largely happened, mostly, for better or worse.

Bringing together people, capital, opportunity, and academia creates a vibrant ecosystem that mutually reinforces further gains in a "virtuous" cycle. What doesn't create much is having only a few people spread out without a support system. It takes encouraging a mix of many open minded people within a smaller physical or digital proximity in order to get the w00w00 effect. That can't really happen when people are told they're not welcome.

gertlex 3 days ago|||
> Silicon Valley, the population of ordinary people residing there, 10 years ago (2015), heaved diversity. In corporate employment, it took decades to break through gender and race ceilings in industry to various degrees, but it largely happened, mostly, for better or worse.

What's the meaning of "heaved diversity" here?

I think I agree with the rest of your comment, about the concentration of varied talent being important.

supportengineer 3 days ago|||
Are you arguing that prior to 2015 there was no diversity in Silicon Valley?
andsoitis 3 days ago|
> Many of the most valuable scientific organizations in the world, including NOAA, NASA, the NSF, the CDC, the EPA, and the FDA,

I don’t dismiss the premise of the article and I think it is a shame how these organizations are being impacted, but I don’t know that these are the best exemplars of cutting edge science being shut down that will lead to America’s downfall from its scientific perch.

rainsford 3 days ago||
Why do you believe those aren't good examples of cutting edge science funding? I get the stereotype that government organizations of all types are just stodgy bureaucrats stuck a few decades in the past, but the reality at least in the US in the year 2025 is that truly cutting edge science is not obviously being funded at any significant scale anywhere but government.

The world of privately funded research organizations like Bell Labs is long gone, with companies being barely able to look past the next quarter never mind being willing to invest in long term research that may not pay off for a few decades, if it pays off at all. And by definition most cutting edge science has that kind of financial time horizon. If there was an obvious, short term path to directly benefiting those conducting it, it's probably not very cutting edge at all and closer to engineering than actual scientific research. Not that there is anything wrong with that, we need engineering investment too. But it's not a replacement for science research.

I think a lot of people who scoff at the idea of government being on the cutting edge of science research don't understand how that research is being conducted. Sure, some of it is done by actual government employees, but especially for organizations like the NSF, the bulk of the research is being done by organizations and individuals outside of government who are simply given a check to look into things that might not immediately pay off or which have major societal benefit but no real path to commercial payoff.

dotnet00 3 days ago|||
To be fair, there are still many well funded private research labs, they just focus on "sexy" easy-to-market science like quantum computing, photonics, deep learning, robotics etc.
whatshisface 3 days ago||
That's engineering. Science involves laws and facts about the natural world that are not yet known.
dotnet00 3 days ago||
There's a lot of overlap between science and engineering, a lot of the things being affected by the cuts would be engineering by your definition.

E.g. designing scientific instruments. The fundamental physics and chemistry can be well understood, and yet you need a strong overlap of scientists and engineers to produce and run something that actually collects useful data, especially at the cutting edge, where new things actively need to be discovered and built to achieve the desired capability. Another growing one is using AI to drive scientific discovery (e.g. sifting through the terabytes of data being generated everyday and identifying things of potential interest), it isn't strictly an engineering problem, as the entire point is that you don't fully know what you are/are not looking for.

There's a reason most of the things I mentioned also hire plenty of physicists.

whatshisface 3 days ago||
Scientific research groups hire engineers to engineer, and industry teams hire scientists to serve as specialized engineers, but there is next to no scientific research in the industrial sector.
bakuninsbart 1 day ago||
That is so narrow a definition of scientific research it excludes many major contributions to our base of knowledge. The primary difference between engineering and science is the intention - Scientists want to understand how things work by using the scientific method, engineers want to make stuff that works, but this still often includes iterating over designs by using empirical data.

If a team of engineers find a cool new algorithm to make computer vision easier, we learnt something new about the world in the process. On the flip-side, you actually have plenty of research in fields you would consider science, eg. physics, that do not use the scientific method at all, but instead deduce possibilities based on mathematical modelling.

andsoitis 3 days ago|||
> Why do you believe those aren't good examples of cutting edge science funding?

They are, but the article asserts, without evidence, that the US, like Nazi Germany, has passed a threshold where it is going to lose its preeminence in scientific research.

searine 3 days ago|||
> but I don’t know that these are the best exemplars of cutting edge science

Then you simply aren't familiar with their work. These (plus NIH, DOE, DOD etc.) are the engines of a large portion of the world's science.

The engine is starved and it is going to destroy American industry.

baby_souffle 3 days ago|||
> Then you simply aren't familiar with their work. These (and NIH) are the engines of a large portion of the world's science.

The problem is that not all cutting edge science is "sexy". NOAA and NASA are doing some _really_ cool stuff with weather monitoring / climate predicting. Sexy? Arguably no. Unless the weather app on your phone is sexy.

Important? I'd argue that it's critical that we keep getting better at it.

apical_dendrite 3 days ago||
And some important work is even less sexy than that. People like Ted Cruz love to mock work on animal models, because if you don't know anything about the field it sounds ridiculous ("look at these idiots wasting money putting shrimp on a treadmill"). But finding a simpler animal model has been one of the most successful ways to understand biological systems, and we've found all sorts of useful things by looking at how animals solve problems.
andsoitis 3 days ago|||
> are the engines of a large portion of the world's science.

the article is meant to educate and inform, so inform the reader, who might know that fact, of it and some evidence to characterize the dynamic.

when you preach to the choir, you miss a chance to widen the circle of empathy.

anitil 3 days ago|||
They're also the data collection point for much down stream research which is cutting edge
stonogo 3 days ago|||
Then I have trouble believing you understand how cutting-edge research happens, because these organizations are the ones who fund it. The missing piece here is DOE Office of Science, but they're coming for that too.
throwawaymaths 3 days ago||
you ever worked with DOE office of science or anyone at the national renewable energy labs? not the brightest lightbulbs out there.
stonogo 2 days ago|||
But that's where the funding is (was). The user facilities attract researchers from all over the world, and make sure that research happens in America. Instrument development happens in partnership with the labs for the same reason. If you want research to happen in America, this is how you get that. If you want a dick-measuring contest, I guess funding these agencies isn't important.
mcphage 3 days ago|||
> not the brightest lightbulbs out there

That’s true—all the brightest bulbs are working at FAANG companies building advertising delivery services, or at Fintech companies figuring out how to gamble faster.

betaby 3 days ago||
Unironically true.
mcphage 2 days ago||
Oh, I know it's true—but it means that complaining "the brightest lightbulbs" aren't working for the government science organizations is stupid, because all the "brightest lightbulbs" are doing is making life worse for everyone else, so who the fuck cares about them?
apical_dendrite 3 days ago|||
I'm not sure why NIH is left off this list, since it's probably the most important scientific organization in the world. Between them NIH and NSF fund a huge proportion of the cutting edge science that is done in the US, either directly or by funding the training and early career work of researchers.

They fund a lot of the foundational work that doesn't get a lot of resources from the private sector. 99% of new drugs approved between 2010 and 2019 relied on NIH funding.

analog31 3 days ago||
It was probably an omission. Fill it in, and it makes sense. I believe the NIH is larger than the NSF. In addition to funding research, these agencies also fund education, both directly and indirectly.
Loughla 3 days ago||
Correct. One of the guys in my cohort in post graduate work was funded by a grant from the NIH.
analog31 3 days ago|||
And in my case, the NSF.
giantrobot 3 days ago|||
> but I don’t know that these are the best exemplars of cutting edge science being shut down that will lead to America’s downfall from its scientific perch

Most of these agencies do some foundational science but maybe more importantly they collect lots of boring data. Boring data they give out to researchers for free. They also hand out grants which might not be lottery tickets but they pay for boring stuff.

The current administration believes that if you stop measuring any problem it ceases to be a problem. No one can push back on their flood of bullshit about everything if there's no data to point to. Authoritarians despise objective reality and empirical measurement and will always strive to make it easier to push their bullshit narratives.

throwawaymaths 3 days ago||
NIST and NOAA collect boring data, the rest not really so much.
dahart 3 days ago|||
What are better exemplars?
dennis_jeeves2 3 days ago|||
>I don’t know that these are the best exemplars of cutting edge science being shut down that will lead to America’s downfall from its scientific perch.

True, most are just bloated bureaucracies serving their own self interests

ideashower 3 days ago|||
Isn't it true though that they, altogether, fund America's exemplars of cutting edge science? Like, isn't that the point?
klysm 3 days ago||
Seriously? The NSF?