Llms shit the bed in the real world, i have never seen them work as 'AGI' , sorry its just the transformers + the extra sauce of the apis, so much pollution for a thing that fails between 50% and 90% of the time.

Here I was worried.

I think AGI already exists in multiple datacenters. Only justification for these huge moves being made for capacity that couldnt possibly be needed.

I think current LLMs are smart enough to trigger the intelligence explosion. And that we are in the early stages of that.

When someone talks about AGI and then there is a public discussion about it, it’s very analogous to a cat talking to a duck. Everyone responds with a different fantasy version of of AGI in their minds.

Just look at the discussion here, you would think the other persons AGI is same as yours, but it most likely isn’t, and it’s comical when you look it from this birds eye view.

Nobody has agreed on any definition of AGI, there are plenty of “makes sense” definitions though.

Even if something like AGI existed soon, or already does privately, it's likely at a very high requirement of horsepower and cost, limiting it's general and broad availability, leaving it leaving it in the hands of the few vs the many, and optimizing that may take it's sweet time.

No of course not. But it doesn't need to be to realize profound effects.

LLMs don't model anything but are still very useful. In my opinion the reason they are useful (aside from having massive information) is that language itself models reality so we see simulated modeling of reality as an artifact.

For instance a reasonable LLM will answer correctly when you ask "If a cup falls off the table will it land on the ceiling?". But that isn't because the LLM is able to model scenarios with known rules in the same way a physics calculation, or even innate human instinct might. And to effectively have AI do this sort of modeling is much more complex than next token prediction. Even dividing reality into discrete units may be a challenge. But without this type of thinking I don't see full AGI arising any time.

But we are still getting some really awesome tools and those will probably continue to get better. They really are powerful and a bit scary if you poke around.

Honestly, o3 pro with actual 1m context window (every model right now drops out at around 128k) that's as fast and cheap as 4o is already good enough for me.

Welly, welly, welly, welly, welly, welly, well! No fucking shit!