Posted by JumpCrisscross 8/30/2025
Also farmers can’t sell anything because retaliation has destroyed international demand (I’d say decimated but it’s way worse than reduction by a tenth)
If you threatened me with death if I didn't cut off my feet, I wouldn't consider that "reduction by 10%" even if mathematically it might be.
That said, I had sweet breads recently. And a cat being a deer sounds strange in English now, but deer is still the word for animal in other Germanic languages today, even if it faded in English, so it doesn’t sound completely archaic.
Not true. At least not yet.
Q2 agricultural exports were roughly flat to Q1 [1].
“Overall, export sales of this fall’s (U.S.) soybean crop are down 81% from the five-year average,” Brasher reported.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2025/08/20/soybean-farme...When it comes to soy, America has enormous leverage and China already accepted they're negotiating from a position of weakness.
…Basse says soybean importers aren’t just snubbing U.S. soybeans. They are specifically being told by the Chinese government to not buy U.S. beans.
“So, if you’re a Chinese importer or a Chinese crusher, you’ve been told by the government not to buy U.S. soybeans until they tell you to. This is how China works. Today the Chinese have a stronghold on buying United States soybeans, even though our prices are nearly $1 a bushel cheaper than what they’re buying in Brazil. This is the pressure that I believe the Chinese government is trying to apply on the Trump administration during a trade negotiation,”…
https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/soybeans/8-soybeans-thats-r...You either have to find a way to consume what is already in the pipeline or go without. Governments are very sensitive to the food security implications because there isn’t much slack politically to “go without”.
The american public asked for it loud and clear for it last november. We should respect that.
36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what.
And we are now about half a year into his term and I see some complaining, but not one single person seriously opposing him and his politics. If the things he does were really that unpopular, he would not be able to do them. To me it seems like he has the full support of the american public.
The question is whether and how much these policies are supported, and the popular vote is obviously relevant in this regard.
> 36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what
That's not really true, for all you know those voters didn't support either outcome. You would expect a "loud and clear" victory not to leave one third of people unconvinced enough to avoid voting altogether.
> but not one single person seriously opposing him and his politics
Almost four hundred lawsuits have been filed against his administration, thousands of public protest events are happening, and the tariffs themselves were just ruled illegal. What does "serious" opposition look like to you? In any case, this is certainly not what "full support" looks like.
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/projects-series/trials-of-the-t...
https://time.com/7312601/anti-trump-administration-protests-...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgj7jxkq58o
> If the things he does were really that unpopular, he would not be able to do them.
What is the logic behind this?
They are supported by the election. The american puplic accepted the result. Popular vote is not relevant for Trump.
> That's not really true, for all you know those voters didn't support either outcome. You would expect a "loud and clear" victory not to leave one third of people unconvinced enough to avoid voting altogether.
Maybe they had different reasons, but unfortunately thats not how not casting a vote works in a democracy. If you do not vote, you support the winner, no matter your intentions.
> Almost four hundred lawsuits have been filed against his administration
Trump has every branch of the government in his hand, law does not matter to him. Besides, he is a convicted criminal already. A few more lost lawsuits don't matter.
> Thousands of public protest events are happening
And millions of americans are not attending. Feels more like a vocal minority to me than a real movement.
> the tariffs themselves were just ruled illegal
I have not followed closely, but someday it gets to the supreme court and they will say "the president can do whatever he want", like they have said in the past.
> What does "serious" opposition look like to you?
Something that prevents Trump from executing his plans. Something that prevents Trump from just doing whatever he wants.
> time.com: "...thousands of protesters attended demonstrations on Independence Day..."
Thousands? Thats a fraction of a fraction of the american population. I am sorry, but I fail to see how that supports your point.
I will have to admit I am a little jaded when it comes to the US, but you must forgive me: when the US threatens your country with war, a lot of nuance goes out of the window. If an american clusterbomb kills me and my family tomorrow, I won't care that it has been ruled illegal by some lower court (Trump won't either).
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/climate/trump-internation...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/us/politics/trump-modi-in...
On https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis... you can see that mainstream solar panels have returned to their all-time low price of €0.100 per peak watt from November, while low-cost solar panels have fallen to a new all-time low of €0.055 per peak watt, an all-time low first achieved last month, and a 21% decline from a year ago. The "mainstream" category price is down 17% from a year ago. This is driving down the prices of complementary products and enabling new low-cost installation methods that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Because it's so astoundingly cheap, last year China installed 277 GW(p) of solar power generation capacity: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65064. This compares to a total electrical generation capacity in the US of 1189 GW, albeit with a higher capacity factor: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-.... This year the projection is that China will have installed another 380 GW of solar capacity, giving it more solar electrical generation capacity than the US has total electrical generation capacity from all sources: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/07/10/china-on-track-to-dep...
Consequently we're seeing reports that, for Chinese AI startups, energy is a "solved problem", while US companies worry they'll be unable to get enough energy to compete: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell....
This is one of the most historically important things happening in the world today, but it's surprisingly little known even among people who are otherwise well informed.
Even if Trump could strong-arm other rich countries into imposing US-style prohibitive tariffs on Chinese solar panels, he certainly won't strong-arm China, so the cat is out of the bag; that would just make those countries economically uncompetitive with Chinese products produced with superabundant solar energy. And panels are already being mass-produced overseas with Chinese technology at prices fossil fuels can't compete with.
"Solar is cheaper than fossil" does not look at the whole picture, it completely ignores that solar is not scalable quickly enough to meet rising energy demands. It also is a dark laugh towards consumers, who do not see prices lowering, but exponentially rising, ironically while the so-called cheap power sources are being rolled out.
For coal, the "started construction" number there isn't the same metric as began operation. You want to look for "commissioned" and you get 30 GW. From https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/when-coal-wont-ste...
> Note: In 2024, 66.7 GW of new coal power capacity was permitted, a decline from previous years but still above the subdued pace seen earlier in the year. New and revived coal power proposals totaled 68.9 GW, down from 117 GW in 2023 and 146 GW in 2022, indicating a potential slowdown in project initiation. Meanwhile, construction started on 94.5 GW of new coal capacity — the highest since 2015 — suggesting continued momentum in project development. However, the pace of new coal plants entering operation has been more moderate, with 30.5 GW commissioned so far in 2024, down from 49.8 GW last year but in line with 2021 and 2022 levels.
China is well positioned to do solar + storage, but a lot of that coal is probably (a) for base load, (b) for steel production and (c) to keep the coal miners in business. From the same write up:
> In 2024, more than 75% of newly approved coal power capacity was backed by coal mining companies or energy groups with coal mining operations, artificially driving up coal demand even when market fundamentals do not justify it.
> Hey n00bs: the up‑and‑to‑the‑right charts people fling around about China’s coal tell you almost nothing you think they do. Here's what actually matters:
> 1/ China’s electricity supply exploded over the last decade (versus stagnant for US)
> 2/ new growth is now being met mostly by clean power, coal is at all time low % of total
> 3/ grid delivery got a lot better (bigger and more efficient)
> 4/ China’s power‑sector emissions look like they peaked or are peaking, like 5 years ahead of its official deadline
> So if you reply with “BUT COAL PLANTS!!1!” without talking about utilization, per‑capita numbers, or the grid, you’re, uh, auditioning for the quote‑tweet (thx ChatGPT for this insult).
> More details below for those who have more than half a brain cell available: ...
Coal plant approvals in China last year ended up even lower than the 66.7 GW number you give, only 62.24 GW: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat... That's for all of 02024, not (as you said) the first half.
Contrary to your assertion, that is the peak ("(p)") or nameplate capacity of the coal plants in question. However, coal plants do have a higher capacity factor than solar plants, which may have been what you were trying to say. In the US, which has the best data available, coal plants are operated with an average capacity factor of 42% (much lower than historical averages around 75%) while PV is down at 23%: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183680/us-average-capaci... but I think that in China the gap is wider. From memory, I think I worked out that China's average solar capacity factor has been around 10%, while coal is nearly 50%.
So 62GW(p) of coal capacity built would be about 30GW 'permanently available'. Moreover, However, not all of those regulatorily approved projects will actually come to fruition. You can see from boulos's numbers that only about half of approved plants ever get built. So 62GW approved is more like an average of 15GW actually produced—for the few short years before the plants are shut down.
I'm not sure what you mean by "not scalable quickly enough to meet rising energy demands". China was indeed having a hard time scaling electrical generation quickly enough to meet rising energy demands, back when they were more heavily coal-dependent. They had a full-blown crisis in 02021 with widespread blackouts. But that's because fossil fuels aren't scalable. That's why they installed 500 GW (half a terawatt) of new electrical generation capacity last year, half of which is solar and 80% of which is renewables. As Lauri Myllyvirta says in https://xcancel.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/19603213250099530..., it's probably also why they're still building even the small amount of coal-fired generation capacity they are:
> Permitting of a massive wave of new coal plants was a knee-jerk response to early-2020s power shortages and grid challenges from rapid wind and solar growth. The coal industry marketed itself as the solution, showing its entrenched influence. Since then, better grid operation and storage have largely addressed those issues, while the coal projects approved at the time are still under construction. A huge pipeline of already permitted projects remains.
He cites https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-coal-is-los... for further information.
I don't have a good handle on consumer electricity prices in China, but from Rui Ma's figures in https://xcancel.com/ruima/status/1960397673921699955, they don't seem to be exponentially rising; the average residential rate she gives is 0.542 RMB/kWh, which is US$0.076/kWh. That was for 02019. According to https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-of-e..., in 02024, Chinese consumers were paying US$0.08/kWh for their electricity, so they basically haven't seen a price increase in five years. And they're paying less than half the average in the US, where solar deployment is so much less advanced.
By the way, my comment you were replying to cited 5 sources of reliable information. This comment, in reply to yours, cites two reliable sources, plus Statista, World Population Review, and two people on Twitter. Your comment disagreeing with mine cites zero sources, and unsurprisingly virtually every assertion in it is wrong. I corrected five factual errors in your four-sentence comment, and I suspect there are more. Don't you have any information to contribute? Do you just not care whether what you're saying is true or not? Do you think that insufficient ignorance is a big problem in the world, so you'd like to create additional ignorance?
Solar energy production is great - but the problem is not "we have too little solar", it is "we need to lower CO₂ emissions". If China keeps piling up coal power plant capacity, it is irrelevant for the main problem if they also install lots of solar.
You have the wrong evidence and conclusion.
The country could get hit by a meteor tomorrow, and nobody else would notice.
Communism has a real definition. NK is not communist. China is not communist either.
You can believe communism is evil. You can't believe communism is evil because you just attribute everything evil to communism.
That's just bad reasoning. Like, really really bad reasoning. Like, I think most small children have higher reasoning capabilities than that.
The most positive argument I have heard is that it would be a small consumption tax that is regressive. Small because the US doesn't really import that much compared to most global economies. It's just things we fixate on like cars or steel, which actually aren't that economically important anymore. Maybe strategically? I feel like people are trying to make economic sense of an emotional / populist policy.
* https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariff...
[0]: https://apnews.com/article/us-tariffs-goods-services-suspens...
>"Specifically, the requirement for duties and taxes to be prepaid on all shipments prior to their arrival in the US,"
Which is also very destructive because such instability is very bad for long-term business planning.
If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
You will never see Putin outsourcing civilian tasks to the military.
Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.
Get your priorities straight.
To quote Niemöller:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
For example, when Kentucky passed their trans sports ban in 2022, there was a grand total of one (1) transgender high school athlete in the state[0].
I mean, it's almost laughable to suggest that any of those things are even near comparable to the potential long-term impact of historically unprecedented tariffs being thoughtlessly tossed around on a whim.
[0] https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trans-athlete-bans-fischer-we...
It was largely a failure of anti tariff other candidates to capture these other 'easy wins' needed to get to the point of implementing sane economic policy.
Odds are it hasn't been updated for 20+ years
OP might not be wrong, but let's at least follow SOP for disclosing security failures (30 days pre-disclosure)
Yeah, complicated, costly and always changing regulations are great for doing business... /s
The underlying issue is complete chaos and confusion caused by this situation, not just any specific actual Tariff or not.