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Posted by saucymew 12 hours ago

Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?(joincolossus.com)
100 points | 122 commentspage 2
rf15 3 hours ago|
If we can create an AGI, then an an AGI can likely create more AGIs, and at that point you're trying to sell people things they can just have for free/traditional money and power are worthless now. Thus, an AGI will not be built as a commercial solution.
zkmon 4 hours ago||
A few issues:

1. The tech revolutions of the past were helped by the winds of global context. There were many factors that propelled those successful technologies on the trajectories. The article seems to ignore the contextual forces completely.

2. There were many failed tech revolutions as well. Success rate was varied from very low to very high. Again the overall context (social, political, economic, global) decides the matters, not technology itself.

3. In overall context, any success is a zero-sum game. You maybe just ignoring what you lost and highlighting your gains as success.

4. A reverse trend might pickup, against technology, globalization, liberalism, energy consumption etc

mhb 10 hours ago||
Seems like the thing to do to get rich would be to participate in services that it will take a while for AI to be able to do: nursing, plumbing, electrician, carpentry (i.e., Baumol). Also energy infrastructure.
palata 10 hours ago||
Counterpoint: those engineers who get paid millions to work on AI.
firesteelrain 10 hours ago||
There are plenty of companies making money. We are using several “AI powered” job aids that are leading to productivity gains and eliminating technical debt. We are licensing the product via subscription. Money is being made by the companies selling the products.

Example

https://specinnovations.com/blog/ai-tools-to-support-require...

Ozzie_osman 3 hours ago||
Like any gold rush, there will be gold, but there will also be folks who take huge bets and end up with a pan of dirt. And of course, there will be grifters.
nextworddev 10 hours ago||
AI by nature is kind of like a black hole of value. Necessarily, a very small fraction will capture the vast majority of value. Luckily, you can just invest wisely to hedge some of the risk of missing out.
bossyTeacher 9 hours ago||
Funny thing with people suddenly pretending we just got AI with LLMs. Arguably, AIs has been around for way longer, it just wasn't chatty. I think when people talking about AI, they are either talking about LLMs specifically or transformers. Both seem like a very reductive view of the AI field even if transformers are hottest thing around.
pevansgreenwood 10 hours ago||
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whistle650 8 hours ago|
[flagged]
Fade_Dance 8 hours ago||
>Many psychiatric medications (SSRIs, lithium, ketamine for depression) are effective, but their exact pathways and why they work for some and not others are unclear.

>General anesthesia works consistently, yet the precise molecular-level reason consciousness disappears isn’t settled science.

(this response written by... AI)

whistle650 8 hours ago||
Agreed, and I did mention medicines as examples of things that work but we don’t understand. But they weren’t “made” by us in quite the same way imo.
wsintra2022 8 hours ago||
Except.. people do know exactly how these things work. They know because they are creating them. They know because they are improving them. What nonsense to say we do not know how these things work. Engineers building Qwen for example not only know how things work but they put all the work out there for people to reproduce (if they had the means) that work.
visarga 5 hours ago|||
We know in the same sense we understand the rules in Conway's game of life - at low level - but don't understand what those rules will produce at high level (gliders, guns) except by executing and seeing. Analogous to knowing what the code looks like and not knowing if it will halt.

Knowing the low level rules, or the recursive transition rule of a system does not tell you its evolution in time.

whistle650 7 hours ago|||
Ok, so how does general anesthesia work? How does ketamine work for depression? The recipes for those are well-known.