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Posted by todsacerdoti 3 days ago

The new calculus of AI-based coding(blog.joemag.dev)
196 points | 213 commentspage 3
Madmallard 2 days ago|
Correct TDD involves solving all the hard problems in the process. What gain does AI give you then?
deterministic 17 hours ago||
90% of the code I commit is code generated. No AI required.
whiterook6 2 days ago||
This reads like "Hey, we're not vibe coding, but when we do, we're careful!" with hints of "AI coding changes the costs associated with writing code, designing features, and refactoring" sprinkles in to stand out.
moron4hire 2 days ago||
If you are producing real results at 10x then you should be able to show that you are a year ahead of schedule in 5 weeks.

Waiting to see anyone show even a month ahead of schedule after 6 months.

ned_roberts 2 days ago||
Looking at the “metrics” they shared, going from committing just about zero code over the last two years to more than zero in the past two months may be a 10x improvement. I haven’t seen any evidence more experienced developers see anywhere near that speedup.
chotmat 2 days ago||
The "metrics" is hilarious. The "before AI" graph looks like those meme about FAANG engineers who sit around and basically do nothing.
aitchnyu 2 days ago|||
In 2015, I promoted React as lightweight and bug-free, no plumbing 25 paths and callbacks between events, APIs, DOM for a page using jQuery. No late nights and angry clients like other projects. Everything went neatly for two weeks, till the induced demand of features brought us to the old late nights and angry clients baseline. For many, LLMs are yet another "you are now 10x better" blessing like Moore's law, SQL over binary files, Python over C, NPM/Pip over header files, React over jQuery etc.
moron4hire 2 days ago||
Imagine you worked as a framer and someone released a new kind of pneumatic nail gun that fired a random scattering of nails into all the boards and ”all” you had to do was remove all the "wrong" ones. 100x framing productivity, right?
__MatrixMan__ 2 days ago|||
I've never worked anywhere that knew where they were going well enough that it was even possible to be a month ahead of schedule. By the time a month has elapsed the plan is entirely different.

AI can't keep up because its context window is full of yesteryear's wrong ideas about what next month will look like.

moron4hire 2 days ago||
Yeah, this is the main problem. Writing of code just isn't the bottle neck. It's the discovery of the business case that is the hard part. And if you don't know what it is, you can't prompt your way out of it.

We've been having a go around with corporate leadership at my company about "AI is going to solve our problems". Dude, you don't even know what our problems are. How are you going to prompt the AI to analyze a 300 page PDF on budget policy when you can't even tell me how you read a 300 page PDF with your eyes to analyze the budget policy.

I'm tempted to give them what they want: just a chatter box they can ask, "analyze this budget policy for me", just so I can see the looks on their faces when it spits out five poorly written paragraphs full of niceties that talk its way around ever doing any analysis.

I don't know, maybe I'm too much of a perfectionist. Maybe I'm the problem because I value getting the right answer rather than just spitting out reams of text nobody is ever going to read anyway. Maybe it's better to send the client a bill and hope they are using their own AIs to evaluate the work rather than reading it themselves? Who would ever think we were intentionally engaging in Fraud, Waste, and Abuse if it was the AI that did it?

int_19h 2 days ago|||
> I'm tempted to give them what they want: just a chatter box they can ask, "analyze this budget policy for me", just so I can see the looks on their faces when it spits out five poorly written paragraphs full of niceties that talk its way around ever doing any analysis.

Ah, but they'll love it.

> I don't know, maybe I'm too much of a perfectionist. Maybe I'm the problem because I value getting the right answer rather than just spitting out reams of text nobody is ever going to read anyway. Maybe it's better to send the client a bill and hope they are using their own AIs to evaluate the work rather than reading it themselves? Who would ever think we were intentionally engaging in Fraud, Waste, and Abuse if it was the AI that did it?

We're already doing all the same stuff, except today it's not the AI that's doing that, it's people. One overworked and stressed person somewhere makes for a poorly designed, buggy library, and then millions of other overworked and stressed people spend most of their time at work finding out how to cobble dozens of such poorly designed and buggy pieces of code together into something that kinda sorta works.

This is why the top management is so bullshit on AI. It's because it's a perfect fit for a model that they have already established.

__MatrixMan__ 2 days ago|||
I've got my own gripes about leadership, but I'm finding that even when its a goal I've set for myself, watching an AI fail at it represents a refinement of what I thought I wanted: I'm not much better than they are.

That, or its a discovery of why what I wanted is impossible and it's back to the drawing board.

It's nice to not be throwing away code that I'd otherwise have been a perfectionist about (and still thrown away).

journal 2 days ago||
when copilot auto-completes 10 lines with 99% accuracy with a press of tab, does that not save you time typing those lines?
Macha 2 days ago|||
Sure, but probably your pre-copilot IDE was autocompleting 7-8 of those lines anyway, just by playing type tetris, and typing the code out was never the slow part?
what 2 days ago||
These are the kind of people that create two letter aliases to avoid typing “git pull” or whatever. Congrats, very efficient, saving 10 seconds per day.

So, yeah, they probably think typing is a huge bottle neck and it’s a huge time saver.

kasey_junk 2 days ago|||
Do you level the same criticism at people who write blogs expressing their enthusiasm for vi keyboard movements or emacs lisp incantations? How about shell improvements and language server based refactor tools?

How about learning to touch type? Clearly code manipulation is not the hard part of writing software so all the people finding efficiency improvements in that tooling and skill set would be better served doing something else with their time? I find it instructive that the evergreen dismissal of one persons enthusiasm as unimportant rarely says what exactly they should be investing in instead.

nake89 2 days ago|||
I don't have that alias myself. But it seems like reasonable alias to have.
moron4hire 2 days ago||||
Why would that save me a significant amount of time versus writing the code myself means I don't have to spend a bunch of time analyzing it to figure it what it does?
rescripting 2 days ago||||
What if I told you the hard part is not the typing.
kellyjprice 2 days ago|||
Is typing 10 lines of code your bottleneck?
r0x0r007 2 days ago||
"For me, roughly 80% of the code I commit these days is written by the AI agent" Therefore, it is not commited by you, but by you in the name of AI agent and the holy slop. What to say, I hope that 100x productivity is worth it and you are making tons of money. If this stuff becomes mainstream, I suggest open source developers stop doing the grind part, stop writing and maintaining cool libraries and just leave all to the productivity guys, let's see how far they get. Maybe I've seen too many 1000x hacker news..
visarga 2 days ago||
Just need the feedback to follow suit to be 100x as effective. Tests, docs and rapid loops of guidance with human in the loop. Split your tasks, find the structure that works.
ChadNauseam 2 days ago||
I think it's fine. For example, "I" made this library https://github.com/anchpop/weblocks . It might be more accurate to say that I directed AI to make it, because I didn't write a line of code myself. (And I looked at the code and it is truly terrible.) But I tested that it works, and it does, and it solves my problem perfectly. Yes, it is slop, but this is a leaf node in the abstraction graph, and no one needs to look at it again now that it it written
shakna 2 days ago|||
Most code, though, is not write once and ignore. So it does matter if its crap, because every piece of software is only as good as its least dependency.

Fine for just you. Not fine for others, not fine for business, not fine the moment you star count starts moving.

cadamsdotcom 2 days ago||
"We have real mock versions of all our dependencies!"

Congratulations, you invented end-to-end testing.

"We have yellow flags when the build breaks!"

Congratulations! You invented backpressure.

Every team has different needs and path dependencies, so settles on a different interpretation of CI/CD and software eng process. Productizing anything in this space is going to be an uphill battle to yank away teams' hard-earned processes.

Productizing process is hard but it's been done before! When paired with a LOT of spruiking it can really progress the field. It's how we got the first CI/CD tools (eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CruiseControl) and testing libraries (eg. pytest)

So I wish you luck!

Madmallard 2 days ago||
Lots of reasonable criticisms being down-voted here. Are we being AstroTurfed? Is HN falling victim to the AI hype train money too now?
nl 2 days ago|
I'm downvoting most of the criticisms because in general they can be summarized as "all AI is slop". In my experience that simply isn't true.

This article attempted to outline a fairly reasonable approach to using AI tooling, and the criticisms hardly seem related to it at all.

tcherasaro 2 days ago||
Another day, and another smart person finally discovers the benefits of leveraging AI to write code.
Madmallard 2 days ago|
first the Microsoft guy touting agents

now AWS guy doing it !

"My team is no different—we are producing code at 10x of typical high-velocity team. That's not hyperbole - we've actually collected and analyzed the metrics."

Rofl

"The Cost-Benefit Rebalance"

In here he basically just talks about setting up mock dependencies and introducing intermittent failures into them. Mock dependencies have been around for decades, nothing new here.

It sounds like this test system you set up is as time consuming as solving the actual problems you're trying to solve, so what time are you saving?

"Driving Fast Requires Tighter Feedback Loop"

Yes if you're code-vomiting with agents and your test infrastructure isn't rock solid things will fall apart fast, that's obvious. But setting up a rock solid test infrastructure for your system involves basically solving most of the hard problems in the first place. So again, what? What value are you gaining here?

"The communication bottleneck"

Amazon was doing this when I worked there 12 years ago. We all sat in the same room.

"The gains are real - our team's 10x throughput increase isn't theoretical, it's measurable."

Show the data and proof. Doubt.

Yeah I don't know. This reads like complete nonsense honestly.

Paraphrasing: "AI will give us huge gains, and we're already seeing it. But our pipelines and testing will need to be way stronger to withstand the massive increase in velocity!"

Velocity to do what? What are you guys even doing?

Amazon is firing 30,000 people by the way.

lispisok 2 days ago||
We're back to using LOC as a productivity metric because LLMs are best at cranking out thousands of LOC really fast. Personal experience I had a colleague use Claude Code top create a PR consisting of a dozen files and thousands of line of code for something that could have been done in a couple hundred LOC in a single file.
yahoozoo 2 days ago|||
I had a coworker use Copilot to implement tab indexing through a Material UI DataGrid. The code was a few hundred lines. I showed them a way to do it in literally one line passed in the slot properties.
shurane 15 hours ago||
Man hearing that depresses me. Some people really overcomplicate things.
CharlesW 2 days ago|||
> We're back to using LOC as a productivity metric because LLMs are best at cranking out thousands of LOC really fast.

Can you point me to anyone who knows what they're talking about declaring that LOC is the best productivity metric for AI-assisted software development?

chipsrafferty 2 days ago||
Are you implying that the author of this article doesn't know what they are talking about? Because they basically declared it in the article we just read.

Can you point me to where the author of this article gives any proof to the claim of 10x increased productivity other than the screenshot of their git commits, which shows more squares in recent weeks? I know git commits could be net deleting code rather than adding code, but that's still using LOC, or number of commits as a proxy to it, as a metric.

CharlesW 2 days ago||
> I know git commits could be net deleting code rather than adding code…

Yes, I'm also reading that the author believes commit velocity is one reflection of the productivity increases they're seeing, but I assume they're not a moron and has access to many other signals they're not sharing with us. Probably stuff like: https://www.amazon.science/blog/measuring-the-effectiveness-...

p1necone 2 days ago|||
"Our testing needs to be better to handle all this increased velocity" reads to me like a euphemistic way of saying "we've 10x'ed the amount of broken garbage we're producing".
blibble 2 days ago||
if you've ever had a friend that you knew before, then they went to work at amazon, it's like watching someone get indoctrinated into a cult

and this guy didn't survive there for a decade by challenging it

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