Posted by meetpateltech 2 days ago
That logical fallacy of, “I spent a week teaching myself this topic and now I’m ready to talk about it like an expert.”
Spare me. Sam has been talking about ChatGPT already being AGI for ages, meanwhile still peddling this duplicitous talk about how AGI is coming despite it apparently already being here. Can we act like grownups and treat this like a normal tool? No, no we cannot, for Sam is a hype merchant.
The promise of AGI is that you could prompt the LLM "Prove that the Riemann Hypothesis is either true or false" and the LLM would generate a valid mathematical proof. However, if you throw it into ChatGPT what you actually get is "Nobody else has solved this proof yet and I can't either."
And that's the issue. These LLMs aren't capable of reason, only regurgitation. And they aren't moving towards reason.
Until LLMs got popular, we would have called that reasoning skills. Not surpassing humans but better than many humans within a small context.
I don't mean that I have a higher opinion about LLM intelligence than you do, but perhaps I have a lower opinion on what human intelligence is. How many do much more than regurgitate, tweak? Science has taken hundreds of years to develop.
The real question is: When do knowledge workers loose their jobs. That is close enough for "AGI" in its consequences for society, Riemann hypothesis or not.
> OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity.
So, can you (and everyone you know) be replaced at work by a subscription yet? If not, it's not AGI I guess.
OpenAI self-evaluated to $500B;
Microsoft commitment for $250B of services, a.k.a still 50% of that value is somewhat locked;
AGI still undefined;
Some more kicking of the can toward the future when it comes to payments;
Both have more freedom to do research and offer services;
Overall, lots of magic money talk with pinkie promise in the future and somewhat higher possibility of new products and open weights models.
That basically means in perpetuity, no? Are there any signs we are anywhere near AGI (or even that transformers would be capable of it)?
Wait, they are not making any profit but already losing billions even before any of these "investments" ?
So OpenAI will declare AGI as soon as ChatGPT is a better AI lawyer than any Microsoft could hire.
In general I feel like OAI is clown town to work at these days, so they probably don’t want anyone except leadership to take the heat for ~anything
Lol, even Apple has authors listed https://www.apple.com/newsroom/