Posted by meetpateltech 10/28/2025
By the time we get 30% global unemployment and another financial crash along the way in the next decade, only then OpenAI would have already declared "AGI".
Likely with in the 2030 - 2035 timeframe.
Spare me. Sam has been talking about ChatGPT already being AGI for ages, meanwhile still peddling this duplicitous talk about how AGI is coming despite it apparently already being here. Can we act like grownups and treat this like a normal tool? No, no we cannot, for Sam is a hype merchant.
The promise of AGI is that you could prompt the LLM "Prove that the Riemann Hypothesis is either true or false" and the LLM would generate a valid mathematical proof. However, if you throw it into ChatGPT what you actually get is "Nobody else has solved this proof yet and I can't either."
And that's the issue. These LLMs aren't capable of reason, only regurgitation. And they aren't moving towards reason.
Until LLMs got popular, we would have called that reasoning skills. Not surpassing humans but better than many humans within a small context.
I don't mean that I have a higher opinion about LLM intelligence than you do, but perhaps I have a lower opinion on what human intelligence is. How many do much more than regurgitate, tweak? Science has taken hundreds of years to develop.
The real question is: When do knowledge workers loose their jobs. That is close enough for "AGI" in its consequences for society, Riemann hypothesis or not.
> OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity.
So, can you (and everyone you know) be replaced at work by a subscription yet? If not, it's not AGI I guess.
So OpenAI could be on Google (GCP) and AWS, and possibly Claude and Gemini on Azure? that could be a good thing.
I use OpenRouter in multiple applications, the practicality of having one provider to host all possible LLMs is such a win to try and iterate without having to switch the cloud (big for enterprise who are stuck with one cloud provider)
My assumption is that they mean PaaS model hosting (so azure's ai service, bedrock, vertex), but I don't know what other product OpenAI is thinking about selling via a cloud provider unless it's training tooling or something.
That logical fallacy of, “I spent a week teaching myself this topic and now I’m ready to talk about it like an expert.”