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Posted by colesantiago 1 day ago

Life After Work(www.mechanize.work)
34 points | 89 comments
larsiusprime 1 day ago|
If all labor is automated and nobody can earn anything selling their own anymore, all that’s left are the other two factors of production: capital and land.

Land is scarce and cant be produced, so whoever already owns it will benefit after the change.

Capital can be produced, but what produces it? Labor. Even worse, capital depreciates over time so just owning some now doesn’t guarantee you an income in the post labor future.

In a fully automated world where human labor is truly of zero value it seems the main returns in the long run are to those who can gate keep valuable land, natural resources, and other fundamentally scarce assets.

Jupe 1 day ago||
Which is already happening. This is why stock buy-backs, IPO-less/private companies and private equity rule the future. This "wealth" will NOT come from government subsidies or UBI. It will stay where it is, with enough income doled out to the masses to keep the supply/demand economy chugging along.
android521 1 day ago|||
Well , if that’s the case , it would be much easier to tax the land owners. Can have exponentially bigger tax so the more land they own, the more tax they have to pay until they can’t afford to own the land. They can’t run as they can’t bring the land with them . Socialism might work in that world
scoofy 1 day ago|||
You don't even have to tax the monetary value of the land. You can require a percentage of the land, itself, over time. If we're really moving to a post labor world -- which I sincerely doubt -- I think the concept of private property is going to have to be narrowed only to things that have a limited lifespan.
larsiusprime 1 day ago||||
> Socialism might work in that world

Technically, what you've just described is Georgism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism

The real question is, in a truly post-labor future, how do workers have enough leverage to negotiate for any particular change in the economic system?

kubb 1 day ago||
Violence. Unfortunately.
HeyImAlex 1 day ago||
In the times of the French Revolution that was enough, but I think technology is obsoleting us there too. If evil oligarch can make a bunker and ten million $100 kill bots, I don’t think the people are rising up unless existence is worse than death, and even then they might not win.
mackeye 1 day ago|||
colonial revolutions tended to be fought by those for whom death was preferable to existence. i don't disagree that, in this age, the chance of success is slimmer, and will continue to shrink as such --- there's probably some critical mass of capital fortification which is unpenetrable without worker leverage
kubb 1 day ago|||
Back to feudalism, huh?
Gud 1 day ago||
No, survival of the fittest. In this case, the people whose ancestors were better at hogging resources.
kubb 1 day ago||
Survival of the shittiest?
ryandrake 1 day ago||
Most of human history has been Survival of the Shittiest.
some_furry 1 day ago||||
> Well , if that’s the case , it would be much easier to tax the land owners.

No, the land owners have bought and paid for every politician. Not gonna happen.

DeusExMachina 1 day ago|||
Socialism "might" always work in an immaginary world that does not take into account the reality of the human condition.

One of the many flaws of such immaginary worlds is thinking that people will be content to live in a system where they have no creative outlet left and nothing they do will have any ultimate meaning.

People in those conditions might burn down the system for the mere excitement of novelty. Even experimental rat utopias quickly degenerate.

bparsons 1 day ago||
There are a lot of functioning socialist states. You don't have to imagine them. They are happier, healthier and have better infrastructure than the United States.
wenc 1 day ago||
Which ones?

If you’re thinking Scandinavian countries they are mixed economies. Most successful economies today are mixed economies.

xboxnolifes 1 day ago|||
When people want to introduce Scandinavian-like social programs to the US, it's "socialism doesn't work". When people point out that they work in the Scandinavian countries it's "Those aren't actually socialism".
DeusExMachina 1 day ago||
When people want to claim that socialism works, they point at countries that aren't socialist.

Socialism is very well defined and it's made nebulous only to claim virtues it doesn't have.

Scandinavian countries aren't socialist. They themselves say they are not socialist and a simple google search for "are scandinavian countries socialist?" will show you that the consensus is that they are not.

bparsons 1 day ago|||
All economies are mixed, save for North Korea, which is command economy communism.

On the sliding scale of welfare state socialism, Finland and Norway have the greatest degree of public investment. Angola would be on the other side of that spectrum, with almost no public services or redistributive programs offered.

dangus 1 day ago|||
The article asserts that as wealth has increased, so has spending on social programs.

I think what isn’t said here is that there was a lot of blood involved in getting weekends and 8 hour workdays. Labor strikes used to be violent, and social programs are pitchfork insurance for the global elite.

If the owners of capital control all means of production, all automated, they will control literal robot armies - we already see this developing with drones and the like.

It’s entirely possible that the global elite succeeds in fighting off the underclass and their reality looks a lot more like Elysium where the owners of capital do not have to worry about the angry masses reaching them.

ryandrake 1 day ago||
Every time I say we are headed towards an Elysium-like world, it gets downvoted pretty quickly. Yet all signs are pointed to that trajectory! The rich are getting richer, they live in essentially their own world already--they're buying islands and building fortresses. They are more and more just selling to each other because the rest of us are essentially irrelevant to commerce. It's reasonable to assume we are moving towards a society where a mere 1-10M or so people live walled-off somewhere in luxury (not necessarily a space station) while the remaining 8B people are economically irrelevant, scraping by in the periphery.
myth_drannon 1 day ago||
That's why the tech billionaires buy islands. It's easier to protect the land in the coming conflicts.
cool_man_bob 1 day ago|||
Notice they’re building castles too. Look deeper you can even find insane sounding manifestos describing feudal style martial-loyalty oaths.
emchammer 1 day ago|||
Reference for techno-neo-feudal loyalty oath please?
archagon 1 day ago||||
Feudal lords, at least, had the wisdom to build their castles in the middle of their protected fiefdoms. In times of social upheaval, a doomsday bunker just becomes a particularly juicy oyster to shuck.
myth_drannon 1 day ago|||
And the lords of the land fly their jets while asking the subjects to reduce their climate footprint.
optimalsolver 1 day ago||||
How will they protect themselves from their own security forces?
ryandrake 1 day ago|||
They're hoping AI and robotics will be capable of handling security by that time.
xboxnolifes 1 day ago||||
Treat them well enough, and they become the new middle class. Not rich, but not poor enough to revolt.
myth_drannon 1 day ago|||
Ah, that's the billion-dollar question. In most of the revolutions, the army, not the citizenry, was the one who went against the ruler. For example that's why Putin kept his army weakened and ineffective and had Wagner force(which still tried to revolt).
mopsi 1 day ago|||
How many divisions does Zuck have?
4MOAisgoodenuf 1 day ago||
The linked hiring page has a junior react/python position listed at $250k/yr

The rest of the piece makes a lot more sense given the context that the author is temporarily divorced from the broader economy

stared 1 day ago||
> This mechanical revolution had a profound impact on child labor. Whereas children working was previously seen as an unfortunate necessity, the new wealth created from automation turned it into an excess. Families who no longer depended on their children’s wages stopped sending them to work. In response, society reoriented its perception of childhood, from a period of economic activity to one devoted to education and play. Mass public schooling was established, and child labor was widely outlawed.

No, that’s not how it worked.

Children were made to work in mines and factories to the point of exhaustion - so much so that, by adulthood, many were in poor health.

Prussia outlawed child labor and introduced public schools not because of Enlightenment ideas about human rights or education, but to train soldiers.

This idealization is not just a small historical omission; it’s the root cause of many core issues in the current education system. We take the current school system for granted - "either this or a lack of education" - but many features (e.g., teaching by age cohorts; the teacher as superior; everything organized in inflexible blocks of time; students expected to sit and stand on command, etc.) are not universal and are likely not optimal for growth. They were, however, very good for training infantry and factory workers - over 100 years ago.

samweb3 6 hours ago||
Is it telling that I used chatgpt to summarize this as 5 bullets for me?

Automation will collapse wages but raise living standards: As AI and robotics replace all labor, human wages will fall—but productivity and wealth will soar, leading to better health, abundance, and comfort.

Historical parallel—child labor’s decline: Just as industrial automation freed children from farm work and shifted society toward education, future automation will free adults from economic necessity, redefining “work.”

AI as the new labor force: Trillions of digital workers could multiply global GDP many times over, making each human comparably wealthy—like Qatari citizens supported by a huge migrant workforce.

Redistribution will likely spread prosperity: Past trends and political realities suggest wealth from full automation will be broadly, though unequally, shared through asset ownership and social programs.

Post-scarcity future: Humanity may enjoy radical technologies—mind uploading, fusion power, genome control, and disease reversal—ushering in an era of leisure, health, and creativity beyond today’s imagination.

indigodaddy 1 day ago||
"With trillions of digital workers and robots entering the economy, a tenfold increase in GDP represents a very conservative estimate of how much full automation could increase economic output. If this modest increase were reflected proportionally in US tax revenues, we could resolve all current Social Security funding shortfalls, lower the retirement age to 18, and increase the average payout to over $150,000 per adult per year."

From what money is that "ten-fold increase in revenue" coming from if no one is working? Is this a chicken/egg problem in the beginning in order to ramp this economy up? But even it it can get ramped up, the described scenario feels like a zero-sum game no? Like we're all just playing a continuous poker game with the same players and all the same money.

nine_zeros 1 day ago|
[dead]
weego 1 day ago||
It’s natural to feel anxious as we approach the inevitable automation of all human labor

This is sell-side idealist thinking and blurred view of reality. We're not approaching it, we're not even seeing metrics to suggest that any sub-division of any business is making serious progress there at all.

Too many people are hyping something that will not happen in our lifetimes and we risk looking beyond the terrible state of large global economies, poor business practice and human exploitation on mass scales to a place we will never see. It's more fun to try and shape future possibilities for large profit that we'll probably never have to justify, than attempt to deal with current realities, and thus go against the grain of investment trends today, for an uncertain benefit.

Sol- 1 day ago||
I do like that they notice the fact that automation and plummeting wages do not automatically mean immiseration for the population. I've read so many uninformed online discussions along the lines of "If no one has jobs anymore, who will buy their products" where people do not even briefly stop to think that automated jobs will most likely also depress prices of many goods and services.

I do not know whether the outcome will be good or not, but it's good to recognize that wealth can increase even in the face of widespread automation.

TrackerFF 1 day ago||
If/when we come to the level of artificial super-intelligence that no humans need to work, said AI would surely be smart enough to replace all human tasks?

At which point, what will be the "moat" between the haves and have nots?

Ideally this sort of AI would completely flatten the inequality curve, because whatever edge you would have, the AI would equalize that for those at a disadvantage. Given that the AI is equally available for everyone.

This alone, brings me to believe that when we get there, there will be some built-in safety mechanism to preserve power for those that are powerful. Sorry if I'm being a bit too general with this discussion, but if we're going to face a scenario where AI becomes too powerful, obviously all humans will/should feel the effect.

philipkglass 1 day ago|
This alone, brings me to believe that when we get there, there will be some built-in safety mechanism to preserve power for those that are powerful.

I think that people will try yet fail to build perfect security mechanisms for controlling the spread of smart robots. If robots build robots, and smart robots are smart because of software, then trying to stop copies of smart robots is like trying to prevent copies of movies. Most people will come to have their material needs met by smart robots, and in the typical case this will be an improvement in quality of life for people on Earth.

Unfortunately, it also means that when people have deadly impulses disconnected from material deprivation, the power to kill will be greatly amplified. Tiny states and even sub-national groups could easily acquire nuclear weapons. The key technical insights are already published. It just takes engineering work and willingness to violate international norms to develop an arsenal. (International norms are not going to be enforceable by "soft" measures like sanctions if every nation can be simultaneously autarkic and prosperous, thanks to smart robots.)

WMD proliferation in turn may drive more comprehensive, paranoid global surveillance and an increasing number of preemptive attacks on facilities that could become weapons factories. Fear of military attack then drives more small states to actually seek a nuclear deterrent. An increased number of actors with nuclear weapons increases the chance that they will kill people on a large scale either deliberately or accidentally (like a "retaliatory" launch against a falsely detected incoming strike from another nation.)

dmitshur 1 day ago||
> Now consider humanity after full automation. Instead of millions of migrant workers, humanity will have trillions of digital laborers at its disposal.

One piece in the logic I don't get is this: why would (or should) the earnings done by those workers go into the pockets of humanity, who isn't doing the work, rather than into the pockets of the laborers, whether digital or not?

indigodaddy 1 day ago||
Or more likely just the companies themselves if all the labor is AI no? Seems like the society/economy will need stringently enforced policies to even begin to think about making this happen
jimbokun 1 day ago||
This is like asking why the profits of corporations aren't given to the machines in the factories.
dmitshur 1 day ago||
A difference there is no one's claiming the machines in the factories are going to reach AGI levels of intelligence within some years.
haritha-j 1 day ago|
It was logical to provide child welfare when children stopped working because parents loved kids. Similarly, most welfare systems work because economies run on labour, thus the owners of capital are motivated to appease the labourers. In a post labour world, what exactly motivates teh welfare?
mattnewton 1 day ago||
Fear of violent revolution?

Isn’t the end goal of any successful state ultimately to hold and protect a monopoly on violence, which is more “efficient” and less violent to the participants?

Jupe 1 day ago||
Consumers are needed for capitalism to work.
ryandrake 1 day ago||
But not everyone needs to be a consumer. I could see the end result of all of this wealth consolidation being that the top 1% both own everything and are the only consumers. Rich people selling things to each other.

I once worked with a founder whose side business was building and selling yachts. Why yachts? If you asked him, he'd say because yacht buyers are the ones who have money.

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