Posted by paulpauper 1 day ago
EDIT: I'm not sure why I'm being downvoted. I read the article and it's not clear to me. The entire article is written with the assumption that the reader knows what the author is thinking.
Also, the article is very clear - the wealth transfer is moving the money/capital controlled by a non-profit to stockholders of a for-profit company. The non-profit lost that property, the share holders gained that property. It seems like taking an implicit assumption something like "the same people are running the for-profit on the same basis they ran the non-profit so where's the theft" - feel free to make that argument but mix the claim with "I don't understand" doesn't seem like a fair approach.
I am also a somewhat harsh critic of Sam Altman (mostly around theft of IP used to train models, and around his odd obsession with gathering biometrics of people). So I'm honestly looking for answers here to understand, again, what wrongdoing is being done?
So the "theft" is the wealthy stealing the benefits of AGI from the people. I think.
Edit: downvoting why? Sama fanboys? Tell me your book rec then.
This situation is arguably better than an alternative where Google or another big tech monopoly had also monopolized LLMs (which seems like the most likely winner otherwise, however they may have also never voluntarily ventured in to publicly releasing LLM tools because of the copyright issues and risk of cannibalizing their existing ad business.) Feels like this story isn't finished and writing a book is premature.
> or when Altman said that if OpenAI succeeded at building AGI, it might “capture the light cone of all future value in the universe.” That, he said, “is for sure not okay for one group of investors to have.”
He really is the king of exaggeration.
If i understood correctly the author does admit that continuing openai as a nonprofit is unrealistic, and the current balance of power could be much worse, but what disgusts me is the dishonest messaging they started off with.
Lookup Worldcoin for instance.
- Multimodality (browser use, video): To compete here, they need to take on Google, which owns the two biggest platforms and can easily integrate AI into them (Chrome and YouTube).
- Pricing: Chinese companies are catching up fast. It feels like a new Chinese AI company appears every day, slowly creeping up the SOTA benchmarks (and now they have multimodality, too).
- Coding and productivity tools: Anthropic is now king, with both the most popular coding tool and model for coding.
- Social: Meta is a behemoth here, but it's surprising how far they've fallen (where is Llama at?). This is OpenAI's most likely path to success with Sora, but history tells us AI content trends tend to fade quickly (remember the "AI Presidents" wave?).
OpenAI knows that if AGI arrives, it won't be through them. Otherwise, why would they be pushing for an IPO so soon?
It makes sense to cash out while we're still in "the bubble." Big Tech profits are at an all-time high, and there's speculation about a crash late next year.
If they want to cash out, now is the time.
Google on multimodality: has been truly impressive over the last six months and has the deep advantages of Chrome, YouTube, and being the default web indexer, but it's entirely plausible they flub the landing on deep product integration.
Chinese companies and pricing: facts, and it's telling to me that OpenAI seems to have abandoned their rhetorical campaign from earlier this year teasing that "maybe we could charge $20000 a month" https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/05/openai-reportedly-plans-to....
Coding: Anthropic has been impressive but reliability and possible throttling of Claude has users (myself included) looking for alternatives.
Social: I think OpenAI has the biggest opportunity here, as OpenAI is closest to being a consumer oriented company of the model hyperscalers and they have a gigantic user base that they can take to whatever AI-based platform category replaces social. I'm somewhat skeptical that Meta at this point has their finger on the pulse of social users, and I think Superintelligence Labs isn't well designed to capitalize on Meta's advantages in segueing from social to whatever replaces social.
an ipo is a way to seek more capital. they don't think they can achieve agi solely through private investment.
private deals are becoming bigger than public deals recently. so perhaps the IPO market is not a larger source of capital. different untapped capital, maybe, but probably not larger.
The average joe is not using them though, for the general public AI is ChatGpt.
Is there like a public list of all employees who have transitioned or something? As far as I know there have been some high profile departures.
Take image diffusion models. They’re trained on the creative works of thousands and completely eliminates the economic niche for them.