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Posted by walterbell 1 day ago

Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers(www.tomshardware.com)
140 points | 122 commentspage 2
dist-epoch 1 day ago|
> OpenAI's Stargate project to consume up to 40% of global DRAM output

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/openais-star...

> South Korean SK Hynix has exhausted all of its chip production for next year and plans to significantly increase investment, anticipating a prolonged "super cycle" of chips, spurred by the boom of artificial intelligence, it said on Wednesday after reporting a record quarterly profit.

https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/korean-chip-race-sk-hynix-has...

> Adata chairman says AI datacenters are gobbling up hard drives, SSDs, and DRAM alike — insatiable upstream demand could soon lead to consumer shortages

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/big-tech/adata-ch...

HPsquared 1 day ago||
Has the death of Moore's Law been officially announced yet?
jandrese 1 day ago||
Gordan Moore died two years ago so I'm not sure who would be the official for declaring it dead.

But there have been plenty of articles over the last decade saying that it was done around 2015 or so.

renewiltord 1 day ago||
Moore’s Law has nothing to do with price.
forinti 1 day ago|||
It does but indirectly. Less power and more integration mean things get cheaper to build and run.
charcircuit 1 day ago|||
>"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year."

I would say that a claim about component cost has something to do with price.

flamesofphx 1 day ago||
I wonder if they old movie lawn mower man is going to become a reference for AI... They might need a dam...
bluedino 1 day ago||
Maybe I can push for some HBM systems now
Thev00d00 1 day ago||
Prime time to build an AM4 system!
embedding-shape 1 day ago|
And here I'm sitting with my AM4 system, debating if to go AM5, sTR5, sTRX4 or what when it's time for the next upgrade.
forinti 1 day ago||
I'm still happy with my AM3.
embedding-shape 1 day ago||
In the end I just need more available PCIe lanes (so I can chuck more disks in there) and ideally PCIe Gen 5, otherwise I don't have much reason to upgrade.
Arch-TK 1 day ago||
Server DRAM? More like all DRAM.
sleepyguy 1 day ago||
Manufacturers learned a valuable lesson a few years ago: overproduction leads to lower prices. Samsung was the first to address this issue by scaling back, and other manufacturers soon followed suit (collusion, cough cough). The past couple of years have been extremely profitable for the entire industry, and they’re not about to increase production and risk hurting their profits.

I suspect they would rather face shortages then satisfy market demand.

KurSix 15 hours ago||
Yeah, it's easy to jump to the collusion theory, especially with this industry's, let's say, history. But honestly, I think it's less of an evil conspiracy and more just good old-fashioned fear mixed with inertia. These guys remember getting burned hard by oversupply cycles where they were left with mountains of useless chips. Nobody's gonna drop tens of billions on a new fab that could become a pumpkin in three years if the AI hype train just slows down a little

And on top of that fear, you have the pure technical reality: you can't just flip a switch and start pumping out wildly complex HBM instead of mass-market DDR5. That's like trying to retool a Toyota factory to build Bugattis overnight. So you get this perfect storm: a massive, near-vertical demand spike hits an industry that's both terrified of risk and physically incapable of moving fast. So yeah, they're absolutely milking the situation for all it's worth. But it's happening less because they're master villains and more because they're both scared and incredibly slow

tehjoker 1 day ago|||
lower prices are ok if they are selling more units, the question is whether the price point * units is Pareto optimal

overproduction means unsold units which is very bad, you pay a cost for every unsold unit

underproduction means internal processes are strained, customers are angry, but a higher price per a unit... can you increase the price by more than you are underproducing?

bob1029 1 day ago||
If we want to engage with game theory here, I would argue that overproduction is a much safer bet than underproduction from the perspective of Samsung, et. al. Underproduction brings additional caveats that manifest as existential risks. For example, encouraging your customers to move to entirely different technologies or paradigms that completely obviate the need for your product in the first place. If you leave a big, expensive constraint in place for long enough, people will eventually find paths around it.

I think the Nintendo ecosystem has been a pretty good example of where intentional underproduction can backfire. Another example might be that migration to SSD was likely accelerated by (forced) underproduction of spinning disks in 2011. We use SSDs for a lot of things that traditional magnetic media would be better at simply because the supply has been so overpowering for so long.

You can train your customers to stick with you by bathing them in product availability. Overproduction can be a good thing. Inventory can be a good thing. We've allowed a certain management class to terrorize us into believing this stuff is always bad.

tehjoker 8 hours ago|||
Very good points. Though a "crisis of overproduction" can be an incipient spin into recession.
9rx 1 day ago||
> I suspect they would rather face shortages then satisfy market demand.

Doubtful. A shortage is normally a scary prospect for a vendor. It means that buyers want to pay more, but something is getting in the way of the seller accepting that higher price. Satisfying market demand is the only way to maximize profitability.

Why do you think companies would prefer to make less profit here?

chronciger 1 day ago||
> Why do you think companies would prefer to make less profit here?

Because if you make too much profit, you get regulated by government.

9rx 1 day ago||
It's not the 1980s anymore. If you make too much profit nowadays you pull a John Deere and start crying to government that your customers aren't profitable enough (because you siphoned off all of their profit) and need a bailout so that they can pay even more for your product in the future.
brador 1 day ago||
Regular Monopoly/Duopoly like the storage market or Nepopoly like the GPU market?

Either way, without competition expect it to increase further.

markerz 1 day ago|
It's intense market demand by people with lots of money against products that have a very long supply chain. Even with multiple sellers competing, this kind of demand is insane, and the buyers pockets run deep.

The other way I look at this is that these companies have been collecting an insane amount of wealth and value over the last 2-3 decades, are finally in a situation where they feel threatened, and are willing to spend to survive. They have previously never felt this existential threat before. It's basically bidding wars on houses in San Francisco, but with all the wealthiest companies in the world.

yread 1 day ago|
To be fair, RAM was way too cheap. I got 128GB for a laptop for 300eur. That's ridiculous. Now it's much more reasonable 720 eur (and sold out)
johnisgood 1 day ago||
May you please help me out financially then, friend? ;P Willing to work for it, too!
ionelaipatioaei 1 day ago|||
I cannot express in words how much I hate this mentality.
confirmmesenpai 1 day ago||
it's ridiculous only if you compare it with Apple RAM prices