Posted by david927 11/9/2025
Ask HN: What Are You Working On? (Nov 2025)
Dreaming about a new programming language made for coding gameplay logic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45865379
And an iOS expense tracker focused for frequent travelers, and macOS photos viewer based on the filesystem instead of a monolithic opaque "library", 2 needs that I had since forever but could never get through Apple's atrocious developer documentation far enough to finish making them :')
use it to view all dashboards in one place.
[0] jacobin.org
SSH based access with HTTP port forward. Team collaboration, multiple models, git based workflow, test deployment automation, etc.
Very early stage but it now work on its own source code (Bash tool is missing): https://github.com/brainless/nocodo
I’m building a small live NFL game-prediction tracker and writing up what I learn as I go:
https://michellepellon.com/portfolio/nfl-game-predictions
# What’s under the hood today
ELO translated to the NFL with margin-of-victory adjustments, a modest home-field term, and week-to-week recency weighting.
Post-hoc calibration with isotonic regression so 70% predictions land near 0.70 empirically.
Monte Carlo to roll games forward for distributions on weekly win odds and season outcomes, plus basic reliability/Brier/log-loss tracking.
# Where I’m taking it (ensemble ideas)
Blend a few complementary signals: (1) pure ELO strength; (2) schedule-adjusted EPA/Success Rate features; (3) injury/QB continuity and rest/travel effects; (4) a small “market prior” from closing lines; (5) weather/play style pace features.
Combine via a simple stacked model (regularized logistic, isotonic on top), or a Bayesian hierarchical model that lets team effects evolve with partial pooling.
Separate models for win prob vs. expected margin, then reconcile with a consistent link so the two don’t disagree.
Emphasis on calibration over leaderboard-chasing: reliability diagrams, ECE, PIT histograms, and backtests that penalize regime drift.
# Why I’m doing it
It’s a sandbox to teach myself Monte Carlo and ELO end-to-end—data ingest → feature plumbing → simulation → calibration → eval—on a domain with immediate feedback every week.
# How this connects to my day job (healthcare ops)
I work at BlueSprig, running ~150 ABA therapy clinics. I’m exploring whether ELO-like ideas can augment ops decisions:
“Strength” ratings for clinics, care teams, or scheduling templates based on outcome deltas and throughput (margin-of-victory ≈ effect size/efficiency).
Opponent/schedule ≈ case-mix, payer mix, staffing constraints, geography.
Monte Carlo for expansion planning (new-site ramp curves), capacity/OT forecasting, and risk-adjusted outcome monitoring with calibration so probabilities mean something.
Guardrails for fairness and interpretability so ratings don’t become blunt scorecards.
# Help
If you’ve shipped calibrated ensembles in sports or have pointers on applying rating systems to multi-site healthcare operations, I’d love to trade notes or if you need someone to this and other kind of work for their dayjob email me at mgracepellon@gmail.com -- I would love to do this fulltime.