Good article. Now would anyone tell me how do I short AI?

I like to reduce things to absurdity to put them into perspective.

The hype of AI is to sell illusion to naive people.

It is like create a hammer that nails by itself... like cars that choose the path by itself.

So stop thinking AI is intelligent... it is merely an advanced tool that demands skill and creativity like any other. Its output is limited to the hability of its user.

The worry should be the amount of resources used to vanity (hammers into the newborn hands) or the nails in the wrong place (viral fake content targeted to unaware people).

Like in Industrial Revolution people got reduced to screw tighteners, mind will be reduced to bad prompters expecting wonders and producing bad content or the same. A step back in civilization except for the money makers and thinkers until AI revolution gives birth to its Karl Marx.

It's often overlooked that bubbles like this actually validate themselves. It's not like the demand, revenue, or profits are fake or made up.

Investment mechanically _causes_ profits, and if you're as big as big tech is then some of that profit will be yours. In the end stupid investment will end badly, but until it actually plays out it can very much be rational for _everyone_ involved; Even if none of them are lying about anything.

Bubbles probably don't even have to hurt after the fact if the government is willing to support demand when things go south. The real cost is in the things we could have done instead. At least GPUs are genuinely useful (especially with the end of Moore's law), Energy investment is never a bad thing in the end, and those assets have very long useful lives.

Remember a few years ago when people were asking what will big tech do with all that cash they were hoarding? Well this is the answer. It might be a bubble it might burst but they went all in and it's hard to disagree with their thinking.

My new thing with articles like these: just search for the word "water".

I think that what is really behind the AI bubble is the same thing behind most money, power, and influence: land and resources. The AI future that is promised, whether to you and me or to the billionaires, requires the same thing: lots of energy, lots of land, and lots of water. Datacenters that outburn cities to keep the data churning are big, expensive, and have to be built somewhere. The deals made to develop this kind of property are political — they affect cities and states more than just about any other business run within their borders.

Independently on the hypotesys/conspiracy that the big investors and big tech don't actually believe in AI, the measurable outcome the OP is making remains the same: very few people will end up owning a big chunk of the natural resources, and it will not matter if they will be used to power AI or for anything else.

Perhaps govrenments should add clauses on the contracts they make to avoid this big power imbalance from happening.

Interesting perspective

I was reading this piece until "As a designer" no need to read further.

Very good article. With regards to the guy being a designer, he is IMHO still correct with regards to layouts. Currently LLMs ares till pretty clueless about layouts. Also SWE is much more then coding. Even in the coding area there is much more room for improvement. The idea that you would not need Software Engineers soon, is brain dead.