Is it a bubble? - Hacker News

Posted by saigrandhi 12/10/2025

Is it a bubble?(www.oaktreecapital.com)

336 points | 569 commentspage 7

languagehacker 12/10/2025|

Impressive that you have have that many assets under management and still not show a clear understanding of an industry you're prognosticating on. The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace. The recommendation that you take a moderate investment position and not overdo it could be shared without as much needless thinking out loud, and doesn't bring anything new to the conversation. Kind of like every other AI offering out there, if you think about it -- participating in something you don't understand because of FOMO.

derf_ 12/10/2025||

> The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace.

There is literally a section that begins, "What will be the useful life of AI assets?" In bold.

languagehacker 12/10/2025||

Sure, but an informed opinion would mention that not only do these chips become obsolete quickly, but the ones that will survive long enough to become obsolete are likely to have a very fast and high failure rate.

empath75 12/10/2025||

> The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace.

I am not sure why that is interesting. Nobody thinks of these chips as long term assets that they are investing in. Cloud providers have always amortized their computers over ~5 years. It would be very surprising if AI companies were doing much different -- maybe even a shorter time line.

moomoo11 12/11/2025|

Man some you guys are lame. Seriously.

Remember 2019-2021 when y’all were sure the fed would be dissolved and the dollar would crash and everyone would be poor if they didn’t have a bored ape and 80% bitcoin portfolio?

Relax.

AI is a tool. Just ride the wave. It’s gonna crash some people out. It’s entertaining watching them. You’re not being crashed out, right? Ride the wave dawg.

satvikpendem 12/11/2025|

> Remember 2019-2021 when y’all were sure the fed would be dissolved and the dollar would crash and everyone would be poor if they didn’t have a bored ape and 80% bitcoin portfolio?

I don't know which "y'all" you're talking about because it's certainly not the HN crowd, who is famously anti-cryptocurrency in general. Perhaps you're thinking of the bros on Twitter back then.

moomoo11 12/11/2025|||

Nope. Here. About half the posts would be about crypto, and the comments were the same split arguing about it.

It was doomer AF on one end, and optimistic AF on the other end.

So, it reminds me of the same FOMO many spread here.

emptyfile 12/11/2025|||

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