Posted by jnord 2 days ago
The optimistic angle nobody's exploring: maybe 'eating SaaS' means we finally escape the subscription hellscape where every basic function costs $29/month. If an AI agent can stitch together free/cheap APIs instead of forcing you into Notion/Airtable/Whatever, that's not destruction—that's evolution.
With AI, that equation is now changing. I anticipate that within 5 years autonomous coding agents will be able to rapidly and cheaply clone almost any existing software, while also providing hosting, operations, and support, all for a small fraction of the cost.
This will inevitably destroy many existing businesses. In order to survive, businesses will require strong network effects (e.g. marketplaces) or extremely deep data/compute moats. There will also be many new opportunities created by the very low cost of software. What could you build if it were possible to create software 1000x faster and cheaper?"
Paul Bucheit
I think this sort of ignores the fact that S&M agentic tools exist and the cost of those services is also dramatically decreasing, so does it net out and just become a more efficient model in general?
I'm not a consultant anymore but my friend who owns a dental clinic asked me if I could build them a personalized system that checks in with the staff every week; a thing that helps analyze how they feel week to week and helps my friend update her management strategy and coaches her on how to talk with her staff / helps her figure out her staff's communication strategies and what work they prefer to do; and she'd like me to run and host it so she can't see the raw data from her staff so they'll trust it more as it's run by a third party.
She could probably figure out how to do this but she'd still rather pay me like $5k to do this than spend 100+ hours figuring this out herself. Even with AI it'd probably take me at least a couple of weeks to get it working 100% as intended, and I don't have a dentist business to run.
I think we'll see more back office SaaS, becuase the problems to solve are near infinite, and no one has time to build all these themselves.
- modest incremental gains in productivity
- society will remain mostly the same
- very few people will take advantage of the opportunities unlocked by AI
A tangent, I feel, again, unfortunately, the AI is going to divide society into people who can use the most powerful tools of AI vs those who will be only be using chatGPT at most (if at all).
I don't know why I keep worrying about these things. Is it pointless?
For software engineering, it is useless unless you're writing snippets that already exist in the LLMs corpus.
If I give something like Sonnet the docs for my JS framework, it can write code "in it" just fine. It makes the occasional mistake, but if I provide proper context and planning up front, it can knock out some fairly impressive stuff (e.g., helping me to wire up a shipping/logistics dashboard for a new ecom business).
That said, this requires me policing the chat (preferred) vs. letting an agent loose. I think the latter is just opening your wallet to model providers but shrug.
What I'm saying is that whenever you need to actually do some software design, i.e. tackle a novel problem, they are useless.