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Posted by hnburnsy 5 days ago

NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models(www.noaa.gov)
158 points | 99 commentspage 2
DaveZale 3 days ago|
how about working with Weather Underground to validate predicted weather at ground level? Here in Southern CO would be a perfect place to try this. Weather Underground has thousands of volunteer backyard weather stations, including mine.

I understand that aviation safety is certainly a primary concern for NWS/NOAA but ground level forecasts are also very important for public safety.

gvkhna 3 days ago||
Working on AI driven weather predictions to make money on prediction markets. The accuracy of WeatherNext 2 is astounding.

It may be a fools errand but makes for an extremely interesting research project. http://climatesight.app if you’re interested in climate markets.

cl42 3 days ago|
Have you considered launching your own weather prediction market instead?

Parametric insurance, energy traders, etc could be good markets.

gvkhna 3 days ago||
No I haven’t but I think the lack of liquidity as a chicken and egg is a huge barrier to entry in these markets specifically. They are small right now but there are climate derivatives on the Chicago mercantile exchange so this isn’t a new concept I think.

Could you tell me more? https://discord.gg/HPpN42SKQ

jasonmarks_ 3 days ago||
These look like staging MVP releases with a full rollout planned for the future. They are only including a few parameters at every 6 hours which is barely interesting to anyone with their feet on the ground.
Incipient 3 days ago||
How well do these predict extremes/outliers? Given that I expect these are more "ML" type models, these are somewhat limited to interpolation, rather than extrapolation?
lisp2240 3 days ago||
All these years later and we still don’t have the minute-accurate forecasts that Dark Sky had before Apple shut it down. Living in the future sucks.
vitorgrs 3 days ago||
If you mean minute-accurate forecast for the next 4-6 years... That's called Nowcasting, and yes, it exists. Bing Weather have it, ACCU Weather as well. Rain viewer too. I believe Google already implemented on Pixel Weather at least.

IMO the best of these are Bing Weather and Rain Viewer, both provide rich maps showing where the rain it's going and all too. And how much.

axismundi 2 days ago|||
Did you mean 4-6 hours?
vitorgrs 2 days ago||
Yes! Sorry... hahahahaha I wish we were able to predict 6 years!
lisp2240 3 days ago|||
No.
Terretta 2 days ago|||
Apple purports to still have this, but it is indeed less reliable than Dark Sky.

However, the author of Carrot for iOS implemented his own flavor of this* and it's remarkably decent.

* According to Gruber interview around the same time Carrot introduced an entire Broadway musical about the conflict between the Carrot AI and her Maker (the dev). Which, while made with AI, is rather more listenable than the typical weather app.

NetMageSCW 2 days ago|||
Apple definitely broke something when they incorporated Dark Sky into their weather ecosystem and it isn’t nearly as good in my locality.
Tempest1981 3 days ago||
My friend's kids would ride their bikes to school in the morning, and on rainy days, check Dark Sky to find the driest time window. It was usually quite accurate.
cramcgrab 3 days ago||
Apparently it seems to be impossible with these files and the best AI right now to answer the simple question, will it rain in midtown Manhattan tomorrow?
defrost 3 days ago|
Take an umbrella if you're concerned.

What is possible is to know with near certainty the rough tonnage of water that will fall across a wide area grain region in an upcoming week.

Useful for the reliable production of grain (timing seeding, harvesting, spraying, etc) in the millions of tonnes.

luc_ 3 days ago||
I wonder if the new models consider land use change and emissions from aggressive datacenter development and model training...
matt3210 3 days ago||
Does ai mean LLM here or just normal software?
gazabbqparty 3 days ago||
[flagged]
CalChris 3 days ago|
Neil Jacobs, Ph.D

This makes me skeptical that it isn’t just politicized Trumpian nonsense.