More on whether useful quantum computing is “imminent”

Posted by A_D_E_P_T 12/21/2025

More on whether useful quantum computing is “imminent”(scottaaronson.blog)

152 points | 125 commentspage 2

Antibabelic 12/22/2025|

Is it possible that practical quantum computing is actually impossible and we only think it is because of our incomplete understanding of physics?

noname120 12/22/2025||

I can’t believe how the very first line of the article is a grotesque strawman. Tbh I expected better from Scott Aaronson.

lukeasrodgers 12/22/2025||

Could you elaborate as you why you think it is a grotesque strawman? It doesn’t strike me as such, even on rereading.

hiddencost 12/22/2025||

The guy who spends most of his time posting either in favor of genocide or about how he got cancelled for being a misogynist? He's an excellent scientist but not a calm person.

willmadden 12/21/2025||

We'll know when all of the old Bitcoin P2PK addresses and transacted from addresses are swept.

GrilledChips 12/22/2025|

the funny thing is that nobody will ever do that. The moment someone uses quantum computing or any other technology to crack bitcoin in a visible way, the coins they just gave to themselves become worthless because confidence collapses.

Traubenfuchs 12/22/2025|||

Well, they wouldn't go for the trillion dollar wale addresses.

They would hack random, long unused, dead addresses holding 5 figure amounts and slowly convert those to money. They would eventually start to significantly lower the value and eventually crash bitcoin if too greedy, but could get filthy rich.

pona-a 12/22/2025|||

There are some Bitcoin puzzles or old wallets that give some plausible deniability.

sallveburrpi 12/22/2025||

So summary is that useful quantum computing is definitely not imminent (as in probably happening in the next 10-20 years) - or am I misreading ?

Traubenfuchs 12/21/2025||

Cloud providers will love it when we will need to buy more compute and memory for post quantum TSL.

tgi42 12/21/2025||

I worked in this field for years and helped build one of the recognizable companies. It has been disappointing to see, once again, promising science done in earnest be taken over by grifters. We knew many years ago that it was going to take FAR fewer qubits to crack encryption than pundits (and even experts) believed.

osn9363739 12/22/2025||

This is the worst quantum computing will ever be.

ktallett 12/22/2025||

That vastly depends on if we choose to go in the right direction.

AlexandrB 12/22/2025||

You assume no civilizational collapse is in our future.

qgin 12/22/2025||

Tbh this reply works for pretty much anything anyone ever says

osn9363739 12/22/2025||

I was attempting a sarcastic jab at the whole "this is the worst AI will ever be". Yet tech (or anything really) will often hit a wall, and be about as good as it's ever going to get.

nacozarina 12/21/2025||

another late signal will be a funding spike

once someone makes a widget that extracts an RSA payload, their govt will seize, spend & scale

they will try to keep it quiet but they will start a spending spree that will be visible from space

eightysixfour 12/21/2025||

Did anyone else read the last two paragraphs as “I AM NOT ALLOWED TO TELL YOU THINGS YOU SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT” in bright flashing warning lights or is it just me?

ktallett 12/21/2025||

It is more, many companies can't do what they claim to do, or they have done it once at best and had no more consistency. I sense most companies in the quantum computing space right now are of this ilk. As someone that works in academic and private quantum computing research, repeatability and methodology are severely lacking, which always rings alarm bells. Some companies are funded off the back of one very poor quality research paper, reviewed by people who are not experts, that then leads to a company that looks professional but behind the scenes I would imagine are saying Oh shit, now we actually have to do this thing we said we could do.

svara 12/22/2025|||

He's making it sound that way, although he might plausibly deny that by claiming he just doesn't want to speculate publicly.

Either way he must have known people would read it like you did when he wrote that; so we can safely assume it's boasting at the very least.

bahmboo 12/21/2025|||

I don't think he is saying that. As I said in my other comment here I think he is just drawing a potential parallel to other historic work that was done in a private(secret) domain. The larger point is we simply don't know so it's best to act in a way that even if it hasn't been done already it certainly seems like it will be broken. Hence the move to Post-Quantum Cryptography is probably a good idea!

griffzhowl 12/21/2025||

Aaronson says:

> This is the clearest warning that I can offer in public right now about the urgency of migrating to post-quantum cryptosystems...

That has a clear implication that he knows something that he doesn't want to say publically

andrewflnr 12/22/2025|||

Very much so. But the specificity and severity of what he knows is not clear just from this. Not necessarily to the point of "bright flashing warning lights" as the top-level comment put it. Anyway, I certainly am glad that people are (as far as I can tell?) more or less on top of the post-quantum transition.

griffzhowl 12/22/2025||

Yes, it can easily just mean that he has some kind of inside information about progress that he doesn't want to divulge, but this is still far from "crypto is broken, guize"

Still, if that's true, it's an example of the very thing Scott's talking about: there are advances in the field that aren't being made public.

bahmboo 12/23/2025||||

You are right, my bad. I must have speed read that last sentence. I won't delete my comment because there was some good discussion.

machinationu 12/22/2025|||

a crypto system is expected to resist for 30 years.

it doesnt need to be imminent for people to start moving now to post-quantum.

if he thinks we are 10 years away from QC, we need to start moving now

William_BB 12/21/2025|||

Just you

belter 12/21/2025||

I ran it through ROT13, base64, reversed the bits, and then observed it....The act of decoding collapsed it into ...not imminent...

hellobluelings 12/22/2025|

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