When I tried gpt-oss and qwen using ollama on an M2 Mac the main problem was that they were extremely slow. But I did have a need for a free local model.

Let's be generous and assume you are able to get a RTX 5090 at MSRP ($2000) and ignore the rest of your hardware, then run a model that is the optimal size for the GPU. A 5090 has one of the best throughputs in AI inference for the price, which benefits the local AI cost-efficiency in our calculations. According to this reddit post it outputs Qwen2.5-Coder 32B at 30.6 tokens/s. https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1ir3rsl/inferen...

It's probably quantized, but let's again be generous and assume it's not quantized any more than models on OpenRouter. Also we assume you are able to keep this GPU busy with useful work 24/7 and ignore your electricity bill. At 30.6 tokens/s you're able to generate 993M output tokens in a year, which we can conveniently round up to a billion.

Currently the cheapest Qwen2.5-Coder 32B provider on OpenRouter that doesn't train on your input runs it at $0.06/M input and $0.15/M output tokens. So it would cost $150 to serve 1B tokens via API. Let's assume input costs are similar since providers have an incentive to price both input and output proportionately to cost, so $300 total to serve the same amount of tokens as a 5090 can produce in 1 year running constantly.

Conclusion: even with EVERY assumption in favor of the local GPU user, it still takes almost 7 years for running a local LLM to become worth it. (This doesn't take into account that API prices will most likely decrease over time, but also doesn't take into account that you can sell your GPU after the breakeven period. I think these two effects should mostly cancel out.)

In the real world in OP's case, you aren't running your model 24/7 on your MacBook; it's quantized and less accurate than the one on OpenRouter; a MacBook costs more and runs AI models a lot slower than a 5090; and you do need to pay electricity bills. If you only change one assumption and run the model only 1.5 hours a day instead of 24/7, then the breakeven period already goes up to more than 100 years instead of 7 years.

Basically, unless you absolutely NEED a laptop this expensive for other reasons, don't ever do this.

There may be other reasons to go local, but the proposed way is not cost effective.

For example, simple tasks CAN be handled by Devstral 24B or Qwen3 30B A3B, but often they fail at tool use (especially quantized versions) and you often find yourself wanting something bigger, where the speed falls a bunch. Even something like zAI GLM 4.6 (through Cerebras, as an example of a bigger cloud model) is not good enough for doing certain kinds of refactoring or writing certain kinds of scripts.

So either you use local smaller models that are hit or miss, or you need a LOT of expensive hardware locally, or you just pay for Claude Code, or OpenAI Codex, or Google Gemini, or something like that. Even Cerebras Code that gives me a lot of tokens per day isn't enough for all tasks, so you most likely will need a mix - but running stuff locally can sometimes decrease the costs.

For autocomplete, the one thing where local models would be a nearly perfect fit, there just isn't good software: Continue.dev autocomplete sucks and is buggy (Ollama), there don't seem to be good enough VSC plugins to replace Copilot (e.g. with those smart edits, when you change one thing in a file but have similar changes needed like 10, 25 and 50 lines down) and many aren't even trying - KiloCode had some vendor locked garbage with no Ollama support, Cline and RooCode aren't even trying to support autocomplete.

And not every model out there (like Qwen3) supports FIM properly, so for a bit I had to use Qwen2.5 Coder, meh. Then when you have some plugins coming out, they're all pretty new and you also don't know what supply chain risks you're dealing with. It's the one use case where they could be good, but... they just aren't.

For all of the billions going into AI, someone should have paid a team of devs to create something that is both open (any provider) and doesn't fucking suck. Ollama is cool for the ease of use. Cline/RooCode/KiloCode are cool for chat and agentic development. OpenCode is a bit hit or miss in my experience (copied lines getting pasted individually), but I appreciate the thought. The rest is lacking.

How anyone in this day and age can still recommend this is beyond me.