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Posted by geox 18 hours ago

As AI gobbles up chips, prices for devices may rise(www.npr.org)
230 points | 346 commentspage 5
arnaudsm 8 hours ago|
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fartfeatures 7 hours ago|
This take is pure Luddite nonsense. AI "lowering labor value while boosting capital" ignores centuries of automation: productivity gains cut costs, expand markets, create new jobs, and raise real wages despite short-term disruption.

Steam engines, electricity, computers displaced workers but spawned far more opportunities through new industries and cheaper goods. Same pattern now.

The "jobless masses stuck with 1GB phones eating slop" fantasy is backwards. Compute keeps getting vastly cheaper and more capable; AI speeds that up.

"Terrible for indie creators and startups"? The opposite: AI obliterates barriers to building, shipping, and competing. Solo founders are moving faster than ever.

It's the same tired doomer script we get with every tech wave. It ages poorly.

Inityx 5 hours ago|||
> Compute keeps getting vastly cheaper and more capable; AI speeds that up.

???

sidibe 5 hours ago|||
None of the previous tech had the potential to do every economically productive thing we can do. It will spawn more opportunities, but maybe it will also fill those opportunities.
bschmidt97979 13 hours ago||
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bschmidt97979 12 hours ago||
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appreciatorBus 15 hours ago||
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dehrmann 12 hours ago||
I remember the HDD shortage after flooding in Thailand. There was a price surge for a year or so, capacity came back online, and the price slowly eased. If AI crashes, prices might quickly collapse this time. If it doesn't, it'll take time, but new capacity will come online.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

bigbadfeline 14 hours ago||
> has more demand than forecast

Nah. The demand is driven by corporations that hoard hardware in datacenters, starving the market and increasing prices in the process - otherwise known as scalping. Then they sell you back that same hardware, in the form of cloud services, for even higher prices.

More explanations here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46416934

callc 13 hours ago|||
Gosh. This sounds a lot like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday with extra steps

A bunch of problems pop up when a handful of super wealthy corporations can control markets.

appreciatorBus 13 hours ago||||
If it’s that easy to make infinite money, maybe the govt should could just do that too so we’d have enough for healthcare and other programs?
bigbadfeline 13 hours ago|||
The government can't, and doesn't, make infinite money. Govt debt can't grow to infinity either, so if revenue is not increased, unpredictable and unpleasant events will follow. However, the taxation issue is so hopelessly misrepresented and misunderstood that I'm not going to discuss it here.
appreciatorBus 5 hours ago||
That’s not what I’m saying. If the implication is that hard drives of all things are being manipulated to make unlimited amounts of money, then the government could just do the same thing and earn that money for the public instead.
squibonpig 13 hours ago|||
What? It's just a business you can only execute with lots of resources, and in a space where supply changes slowly.
hn_throwaway_99 12 hours ago||||
Wow, this is an economics-free take if I've ever heard one. And calling it scalping feels laughable.

There are multiple RAM providers. Datacenters, many competing ones, are gobbling up RAM because there is currently a huge demand. And, unlike actual ticket scalpers, datacenters perform a very valuable service beyond just reselling the RAM. After all, end users could buy up RAM and GPUs themselves and build their own systems (which is basically what everybody did as recently as the early 00s), but they'd rather rent it because it's much less risky with much less capex.

This is simply run-of-the-mill supply and demand. You might convince me there was something nefarious if there was widespread collusion or monopoly abuse, and while some of the circular dealing is worrisome, it's still a robust market with multiple suppliers and multiple competitors in the datacenter space.

bigbadfeline 11 hours ago||
> This is simply run-of-the-mill supply and demand.

That's definitely NOT run-of-the-mill demand because it comes from companies buying hardware at operating loss, which can only be recouped by scalping higher prices at the expense of a starved market.

Demand funded by circular financial agreements and off-the-book debt isn't "run-of-the-mill" by any stretch.

appreciatorBus 5 hours ago||
What happens if some clever HN programmer develops a new algorithm such that you can do training and inference with 1/10 or even 1/100 of the GPU horsepower?
kortilla 13 hours ago||||
That’s not scalping. These companies are not selling nor renting back the memory.
yoyohello13 12 hours ago||
Azure/GCP/AWS and all the AI companies are selling compute. That’s renting back hardware.
hn_throwaway_99 12 hours ago||
And in the process of doing so they're providing a hugely valuable service by building these complex systems out of lots different components, and people and companies find a lot of value in that service.

Calling this "scalping" is just economically illiterate conspiracy theorizing.

bigbadfeline 11 hours ago||
The majority of these companies have long term purchase agreements for hardware at prices far lower than the market prices today, that's front-running the hardware market, the same as scalpers buying up GPU's to restrict supply and then sell at higher prices.

> And in the process of doing so they're providing a hugely valuable service

The value is in the hardware itself, the added services aren't essential - just packaging. The GPU scalpers also sell "a hugely valuable" product, but that has nothing to do with anything, manipulating supply for a price differential is what matters.

> Calling this "scalping" is just economically illiterate conspiracy theorizing.

Scalping is not a conspiracy, it's a well known fact observed since antiquity. Conspiracy or the lack of it thereof aren't among my concerns, the economic fundamentals enabling that phenomenon are.

appreciatorBus 5 hours ago||
Is it “scalping” when HN readers demand six figure salaries for programming work?
derekdahmer 13 hours ago|||
Well that’s one interpretation.

Another way to think about it is a good that we once bought for private use where it sat around underutilized the majority of the time is instead being allocated in data centers where we rent slices of it, allowing RAM to be more efficiently allocated and used.

Yes it sucks that demand for RAM has led to scarcity and higher prices but those resources moving to data centers is a natural consequence of a shareable resource becoming expensive. It doesn’t have to be a conspiracy.

czhu12 11 hours ago||
It seems… fine? Hasn’t DRAM always been a boom and bust industry with no real inflation — in fact massive deflation — over the past 30 years?

Presumably the boom times are the main reason why investment goes into it so that years later, consumers can buy for cheap.

bilsbie 5 hours ago|
Take this to the limit and humans end up as a primitive, agrarian society and AI does its own thing with industry.