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Posted by Amorymeltzer 1/1/2026

2025 Letter(danwang.co)
398 points | 323 commentspage 4
thomasjudge 1/3/2026|
"..for all of Trump’s ills, I see him as a sign of the underlying dynamism of the US. Who else would have elected so whimsical a leader to this high office?"

"Whimsical"

NooneAtAll3 1/2/2026||
> For tragedies too widely experienced in modern times to be censored — the Cultural Revolution, the one-child policy, Zero Covid ...

this part has me confused

can someone explain to me why Zero Covid - the most successful program that minimized Covid deaths - is a tragedy?

imo it was better than whatever clusterfuck was happening pretty much everywhere else

jjcc 1/2/2026||
There are two parts of the Zero Covid policy which actually is a continuous one :

1.At the beginning of the pandemic. It was successful in terms of reducing the death count of population but at the cost of freedom that also widely criticized in Western countries.

2.Because of the early success, the government continued the policy even it was not necessary till close to the end of the Covid. This is one of the biggest policy failure in recent Chinese history. It caused resentment and was exploited by anti-government parties, even partially caused the illegal emigrant wave to the States through south border during 2023, which was reported on mainstream media. Finally it ended due to protests.

Dan Wang's observation about China in his book is mostly accurate, except this part that he has some twisted view on CPP, which is not his fault but CPP's fault.

deaux 1/2/2026||
> Dan Wang's observation about China in his book is mostly accurate, except this part that he has some twisted view on CPP, which is not his fault but CPP's fault.

Give us your take, we're listening. Curious to hear.

whoevercares 1/2/2026|||
Zero-COVID was an absolute disaster. It involved severe human rights violations and caused immense social and economic damage, including unnecessary displacement, homelessness, and even deaths. The number is lower sure, but China had the capacity to do much better
NooneAtAll3 1/2/2026||
again, how is it a disaster if nobody else managed to do better?

and it's kinda stupid to say "even deaths" on the background of Italy, India and even million dead in the US

deaux 1/2/2026|||
China's statistics on COVID deaths are entirely unreliable. In reality, in all likelihood China was the least successful in its region of East-Asia, less successful than Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Note that I'm not including the large-scale suffering caused by the way it was executed besides deaths - if you include that, it's beyond any doubt they did worse than the countries mentioned above, and it's not even close.

maxglute 1/2/2026||
Most successful if you pick the reasonable excess death estimate, i.e. not PRC official stats that only counts respiratory failure, or mainstream western excess death estimate extrapolated from applying obese murican fatality rates. TLDR typical using east asian health profile, PRC excess death rate per 100k like 40-80% lower than JP/SRK/TW, ~20-60 per 100k vs ~100-150. It's not even close. TBH would have been a sweep if PRC actually went full authoritarian and mandated full vax dose, but TFW even PRC respects body autonomy more than west. PRC chose body autonomy over freedom of movement and just so happens to be very good at maintaining freedom of movement, i.e. 3 years of normal life in exchange for like 4-8 weeks of lockdown, with plurality of cities barely experiencing any. Unless one insists PRC aktually has 40% obesity rate or Chinese aren't east Asian, then it's beyond doubt PRC did best globally, while top performers in east asia not even in PRC league.
whoevercares 1/2/2026|||
many people especially those with chronic illnesses died because Zero-COVID blocked access to basic medical care and food. Those deaths were policy-driven and avoidable.
jjcc 1/2/2026||
You watch too much anti government media and mixed narratives with solid facts. You need to read both sides of stories
lostmsu 1/2/2026||
Stories maybe not. Trustworthy data is the only thing that could possibly resolve this question.
maxglute 1/2/2026||
Because fundamentally Dan is a western libtard at heart, not many Chinese immigrant kids join Royal Canadian Army Cadet.

The reality is zero covid is the greatest epidemiology response in human history that insulated against ridiculous covid R value variants, when most countries didn't have system capacity for even basic lock downs and simply forced to gamble on vaccines. And when zero covid became unsustainable because R-value rose, it took CCP like weeks to end it, again unprecedently fast response time. Meanwhile new variants less deadly, PRC vaccines 90% as effective after 2 dose, parity effective after 3 dose and openning up resulted in significantly less deaths as % of population (using western excess death numbers not PRC gov numbers).

Yeah lockdown was harsh but they didn't force people to take vaccines, which frankly was a little retarded, also arguably less authoritarian.

cassepipe 1/2/2026||
> One of the startling geopolitical moves of the year was how quickly Donald Trump withdrew his ~150 percent tariffs on China. Trump folded not out of beneficence, but because Xi Jinping denied rare earth magnets to most of the world, threatening many types of manufacturing operations. And yet I’m struck by Beijing’s relative restraint.

And it makes sense they would do so. Isn't US isolationism their best ally ?

Making up a Sun Tzu quote for this occasion: "If your enemy is about to step in poop, show him how beautiful the sky is"

maxglute 1/1/2026||
>But American problems seem more fixable to me than Chinese problems

Dan still one of the sharper PRC writers, but like all analysts who moves from PRC to stateside, he used to be Canadian in China writing about China to US, now Canadian writing in US about China, Dan starts peddling Murican dynamism cope, maybe something in the water. i.e. see his his post breakneck Chinatalk interview: Humorless engineering governance can't beat very funny Trump/US governance is... certainly a take. Maybe he should do his audience a favor and elucidate why boring competent engineer government is less dynamic/resilient than lawyers other than elections can pivot fast to reduce lawyers (kek) and something something and see see pee can't pivot fast to make productive innovative libtards, since seeseepee STEM can't innovate. Because as we know fast 4 year election cycles work better than slow 5 year plans. CCP certain needs 50% more lawyers... to slow it down.

teiferer 1/1/2026||
> One way that Silicon Valley and the Communist Party resemble each other is that both are serious, self-serious, and indeed, completely humorless.

There is a commedy show literally called Silicon Valley making fun of what's going on in the valley and everybody I know in tech loves it and appreciates the humor.

skeeter2020 1/1/2026||
More accurate:

There WAS a comedy called Silicon Valley that wrapped more than 5 years ago ABOUT the valley made in Hollywood by a guy with a science background who grew up in NEW MEXICO and SAN DIEGO, featuring ACTORs, none of them actual techies from the bay area.

otterley 1/1/2026||
Right, but it’s written and produced in Hollywood, not in Silicon Valley. The Valley, so the argument goes, could not produce “Silicon Valley” the show. It provides the topic to be skewered, but it can’t skewer itself.
pallar 1/1/2026||
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decimalenough 1/1/2026|
He was born in China but his family migrated to Canada when he was 7 years old or so. Said family was also very much on the Communist shit list as former merchant/landowner types.
timzaman 1/1/2026||
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gaaz 1/1/2026||
0
Anton_Ingachev 1/1/2026||
Happy New year
nullorempty 1/1/2026|
>Lack of action due to the expectation of long timelines is one of the sins of the lawyerly society.

>But American problems seem more fixable to me than Chinese problems.

China has stayed on trajectory of improving life of its society for a long time. USA has been in decline all that time and decent accelerated after Cold War with Russia ended.

All of China's growth comes from its internal resource. Growth in the USA had been driven by exploiting other countries.

>I made clear in my book that I am drawn to pluralism as well as a broader conception of human flourishing than one that could be delivered by the Communist Party.

Pluralism had been eradicated in the western society. I can't speak freely in Canada. People get cancelled or jailed for speaking their mind in UK. US is not too far behind in that.

There is no meaningful pluralism in the West. They never make a long term plan they can follow for many years.

China has monolithic ( more so ) society with shared culture, language(s) and national identity that runs deep to the gene level. They don't don't allow foreign influence to erode it. It's much easier to make progress when people share the same long term vision and goals.

CPC is doing just fine leading the country into the future. Sure, it has a monopoly on power, but it also owns its mistakes and fixes them. Multiparty systems of the USA and the rest of the West are just two curtains on the stage, and when you draw the curtains you see the same people attending the same party.

Elected officials aim to earn as much as they can in their short stay in power. After all, they only have a few years before they get replaced, better make use of the short time you got.

China IMO has a much brighter outlook for the future

nradov 1/1/2026||
China has very limited internal natural resources. Much of their growth has been enabled by massive imports of raw materials including soybeans, fertilizer, fossil fuels, iron ore, copper ore, etc. Their prosperity and even their survival is heavily dependent on the post-WWII global free trade system. Ironically, China's expansionist foreign policy is one of several factors now causing that system to fray. In another decade they might find it's not so easy to import soybeans from Brazil and crude oil from Saudi Arabia and ores from Australia.

I share your concerns over effective loss of freedom of expression in western countries. In the USA at least cancel culture seems to be dying out and people no longer feel as obligated to be politically correct or self-censor. But the UK may be permanently lost.

NooneAtAll3 1/2/2026|||
> China has very limited internal natural resources.

this kinda ignores the whole "Asia unification" that is happening right about now

Russia created connection from Iran to North Korea. SCO coordinates economy of the internalities. India-Russia-China are cooperating in BRICS. China stabilized Afghanistan and builds trade routes in the Pakistan. Even US' efforts of supporting Turkey-centered Pan-Turk organizations in the Middle Asia turn un-american as Israel-Turkey tensions are on the rise

China may have resources limited. Whole Asia tho? Don't really think so

nullorempty 1/1/2026||||
They have that which matters the most - people with certain set of beliefs. That's the wealth of China, which they share generously with the West - just look at the Chinese developers and scientists that work in the West.
dpark 1/2/2026||
Are you quoting straight out of a CCP propaganda book?

America supposedly has no resources so we are exploiting other countries. Someone says China has no resources and suddenly the only resource that matters is the spirit of the Chinese people. Give me a break.

MangoToupe 1/2/2026|||
> In the USA at least cancel culture seems to be dying out and people no longer feel as obligated to be politically correct or self-censor

Americans have always been assholes and proud pedophiles. What are you referring to?

dpark 1/1/2026||
> USA has been in decline all that time and decent accelerated after Cold War with Russia ended.

Exactly when do you believe this decline started? I have some major concerns about the current trajectory of the USA, but it seems like nonsense to say that the US has been in decline since well before the Cold War ended.

> I can't speak freely in Canada

I wonder what it is that you want to say but can’t.

Comparing China positively against western nations and then griping about limits on freedom of speech in western nations seems suspect regardless.

> Elected officials aim to earn as much as they can in their short stay in power.

That’s true. Unelected officials can stay in power and accrue wealth for much longer than elected officials.

nullorempty 1/1/2026||
> Exactly when do you believe this decline started? with 'perestroyka' in the USSR which predates end of the cold war - ever since they thought they won over communist/socialist ideas and accelerated with the breakup of the USSR

>I wonder what it is that you want to say but can’t.

Nice try, this won't provoke me.

>That’s true. Unelected officials can stay in power and accrue wealth for much longer than elected officials.

Sure, sure. The systems are setup differently but you are using the same logic for both coming from the assumption that power is used to acquire personal wealth.

For some (many) power isn't about acquisition of wealth but about responsibility, taking care of a hard chore. It's a mistake to think that Xi is in power for wealth.

I often draw a parallel with being a father. You have some power, but mostly you have responsibilities.

dpark 1/1/2026||
> ever since they thought they won over communist/socialist ideas, i.e. with the breakup of the USSR

You seem to have redefined the timeframe significantly. Previously you indicated that the decline was happening even before the end of the Cold War.

I don’t believe that this is a true statement even since the fall of the USSR, though. I’d be interested in what data or metrics this claim of decline is based on.

> Nice try, this won't provoke me.

You’re so unprovoked that you didn’t even address the concern. You could have pointed at what you believed was problematic suppression of free speech (of which there are certainly some examples in western nations) without actually divulging your apparently controversial beliefs.

Bluntly, I believe your criticism here is dishonest. Pearl clutching about apparent suppression of free speech in the west while pointing to a nation that sends ethnic Muslim minorities to reeducation camps as a better system is deeply disingenuous.

> It's a mistake to think that Xi is in power for wealth.

> I often draw a parallel with being a father. You have some power, but mostly you have responsibilities.

This is a man who refused the traditional transfer of power within the CCP and had the Chinese constitution revised so that he could remain in power. This is absolutely a man who wants power and wealth.

You’re plainly biased.

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