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Posted by speckx 1/15/2026

Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage(www.culpium.com)
773 points | 479 commentspage 3
radium3d 1/16/2026|
This all is just spotlighting the weakness of NVIDIA, AMD, Apple, Microsoft, etc. They all avoided manufacturing in-house for so long and now they're fighting for fab time. Intel on the other hand is interesting...
bigyabai 1/16/2026||
Intel still hasn't proven that they've got the whole EUVL thing figured out. The best Intel chips you can buy right now use TSMC chiplets on the die.
signatoremo 1/16/2026||
Incorrect. The best Intel chip you can get is Panther Lake which is made on Intel 18A node, available globally at the end of this month. Intel has already used EUV machines in Intel 7 and Intel 3 nodes, for the last few years.

https://newsroom.intel.com/client-computing/ces-2026-intel-c...

bogdan 1/16/2026||
> available globally at the end of this month

So it's not available yet then?

philipallstar 1/16/2026||
It's a trade-off. If it's worked for this long, it was probably a good idea.
api 1/15/2026||
How much new capacity is under construction? Seems like it should be a lot, but other than Arizona and Ohio and a few other places I'm not reading about a ton of cutting-edge node fab construction happening.
qwertox 1/15/2026||
How about they take a break and focus on their software for the next 2 years?
sib 1/15/2026||
One would think (hope / pray?) that a $4T company could walk and chew gum at the same time. But, apparently not.
bflesch 1/15/2026||
Software quality is just canary in the coal mine that the company culture has changed and they will continue to enshittify their products.
tonyedgecombe 1/15/2026||
Are you suggesting their semiconductor engineers should down tools and start fixing bugs in macOS?
JanSolo 1/15/2026||
I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.
bob1029 1/15/2026||
Semiconductor manufacturing is not an incremental step for Apple. It's an entirely new kind of vertical. They do not have the resources to do this. If they could they would have by now.
boredatoms 1/15/2026|||
They could buy global foundaries and pour in a pile of cash, 5 years later they’d have something useful

Or they could buy out Intel and sell off their cpu design division

bgnn 1/15/2026|||
In that case they would have just burnt cash for 5 years and didn't have anything to show for it.
alt227 1/15/2026|||
If it was that simple, they would have done it.
zvqcMMV6Zcr 1/15/2026||||
Designing CPUs also wasn't their core business and they did it anyway. Apple probably won't care that much about price hikes but if they ever feel TSMC can't guarantee steady supply then all bets are off.

I wonder what will happen in future when we get closer to the physical "wall". Will it allow other fabs to catch up or the opposite will happen, and even small improvements will be values by customers?

JKCalhoun 1/15/2026|||
How do they not have the resources? Certainly they have the cash resources.

At this point it would be corporate suicide if they were not outlining a strategy to own their own fab(s).

bob1029 1/15/2026||
> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plans to spend a record of up to $56 billion this year to feed the world’s insatiable appetite for chips, as it grapples with pressure to build more factories outside Taiwan, especially in the U.S. [0]

Apple has less cash available than TSMC plans to burn this year. TSMC is not spending 50 billion dollars just because it's fun to do so. This is how much it takes just to keep the wheels on the already existing bus. Starting from zero is a non-starter. It just cannot happen anymore. So, no one in their right mind would sell Apple their leading edge foundry at a discount either.

There was a time when companies like Apple could have done this. That time was 15+ years ago. It's way too late now.

[0]: https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/tsmc-ends-2025-with-a-...

cmgbhm 1/15/2026|||
Apple has very much been wanted absolute flexibility to adopt major technology changes so much they’ve tried hard to not be the sole customer of a supplier and deal with political ramifications (source: Apple in China/Patrick McGee)
xnx 1/15/2026||
$20 billion for a new fab is a lot of money, even to Apple.
DetroitThrow 1/15/2026|||
Closer to $40b for a new fab for an established company to do it all correctly. It's a much more major investment to open a fab without ever doing it before, then continually use the brain power/institutional knowledge you've built up to stay near the forefront of fab tech, and then basically have weird incentives to build a foundry for only your products rather than the world at large.

You're setting yourself up for making a huge part of your future revenue stream being set aside for ongoing chipfab capex and research engineering. And that's a huge gamble, since getting this all setup is not guaranteed to succeed.

JKCalhoun 1/15/2026||
Is that true? I guess what I mean is, is it $40B if you are trying to replicate the scale of a TSMC fab? Or could you do it for considerably less if the fab is initially designed to the needs of single customer (Apple)?
DetroitThrow 1/15/2026||
Closer to $40B for some of the latest fabs from TSMC you're seeing, yes. While there could be huge simplification in SoC and packaging processes if it was focused on a single product, Apple's needs will likely still be about having cutting edge processors, so it would still be pretty high even if they were to just buy TSMC.
HardCodedBias 1/15/2026||||
If it were only 20B then Apple would jump at the chance.

As would almost innumerable others.

JKCalhoun 1/15/2026||
Well, if the future of your company depends on a fab, twice $20B is cheap.
LunaSea 1/16/2026|||
Apple has around $55B in cash, much more in stocks.
engineer_22 1/15/2026||
I find that my cell phone which is 4 generations old and my desktop computer which is 2 generations old are totally adequate for everything I need to do, and I do not need faster processing
Lio 1/15/2026||
I used to think that.

I really don't care about most new phone features and for my laptop the M1 Max is still a really decent chip.

I do want to run local LLM agents though and I think a Mac Studio with an M5 Ultra (when it comes out) is probably how I'm going to do that. I need more RAM.

I bet I'm not the only one looking at that kind of setup now that was previously happy with what they had..

tim-tday 1/15/2026||
Apple has made some good progress on memory sharing over thunderbolt. If they could get that ironed out you maybe could run a good LLM on a cluster of Mac minis. Again you cannot today but people are working on it. One guy might have gotten it to work but it’s not ready for prime time yet.
bigyabai 1/15/2026||
> Apple has made some good progress on memory sharing over thunderbolt

The only reason that Thunderbolt exists is to expose DMA over an artificial PCI channel. I'd hope they've made progress on it, Thunderbolt has only been around for fourteen years after all.

tim-tday 1/15/2026|||
But do you use any ai services like chat gpt, Claude, Gemini? If so you’re offloading your compute from a local stack to a high performance nvidia gpu stack operated by one of the big five. It’s not that you aren’t using new hardware, it’s that you shifted the load from local to centralized.

I’m not saying this is bad or anything, it’s just another iteration of the centralized vs decentralized pendulum swing that has been happening in tech since the beginning (mainframes with dumb terminals, desktops, the cloud, mobile) etc.

Apple might experience a slowdown in hardware sales because of it. Nvidia might experience a sales boom because of it. The future could very well bring a swing back. Imagine you could run a stack of Mac minis that replaced your monthly Claude code bill. Might pay for itself in 6mo (this doesn’t exist yet but it theoretically could happen)

kouteiheika 1/15/2026||
> Imagine you could run a stack of Mac minis that replaced your monthly Claude code bill. Might pay for itself in 6mo (this doesn’t exist yet but it theoretically could happen)

You don't have to imagine. You can, today, with a few (major) caveats: you'll only match Claude from roughly ~6 months ago (open-weight models roughly lag behind the frontier by ~half a year), and you'd need to buy a couple of RTX 6000 Pros (each one is ~$10k).

Technically you could also do this with Macs (due to their unified RAM), but the speed won't be great so it'd be unusable.

raw_anon_1111 1/15/2026|||
We have data, people are buying phones in aggregate about every 2.5 - 3 years. Especially in the US where almost no one pays for a phone outright
sib 1/15/2026|||
Wonderful!

I wish I were in that situation, but I find myself able to use lots more compute than I have. And it seems like many others feel the same.

ai-x 1/15/2026||
You are anecdote, not data.

Data is saying demand >>>>> supply.

engineer_22 1/17/2026||
I'm not anecdote, I'm man.
sylware 1/15/2026||
It seems PC(mostly dx11/12)+console gaming is niche compared to mobile gaming (mostly on android which support linux/wayland/vulkan)
alexpham14 1/16/2026||
Ironic, everything will eventually end in some kind of compromise that benefits everyone. That’s how the giant techs have always played.
dcchambers 1/15/2026||
The real loser in all of this is consumers. Pricing on software and hardware is going to continue to rise and rise.
Ylpertnodi 1/16/2026|
Yes, but renting a cloud pc will be initially very cheap for consumers - that's got to be good for consum...governments.
chao- 1/15/2026||
I look forward to Intel announcing that Apple is the major customer they hinted at having for their 14A process.
wewewedxfgdf 1/15/2026|
I thought this got sorted out with giant piles of cash several years ago, didn't it?
hu3 1/15/2026|
someone has a larger pile of cash now
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