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Posted by todsacerdoti 11 hours ago

Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction(entropicthoughts.com)
350 points | 295 commentspage 5
iwontberude 8 hours ago|
Click bait for teaching options analysis
JohnnyLarue 2 hours ago||
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wetpaws 7 hours ago||
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immibis 10 hours ago||
It's easy to predict that a bubble will pop, but there's a variance in the timing of approximately half a human lifetime, and if you don't guess that correctly, you throw away yours.

Everything that can't go on forever will eventually stop. But when?

baal80spam 10 hours ago|
Well put and clearly explains why "timing the market" is never a good plan.
zvqcMMV6Zcr 10 hours ago|
Technical analysis is amazing, it is most refined form of pseudoscience.
cheald 9 hours ago||
This isn't technical analysis, this is an article on how to use the options market's price discovery mechanism to understand what the discovered price implies about the collective belief about the future price of the underlying.
stonogo 9 hours ago||
That's what "technical analysis" means in the finance world, though... so, am I missing a joke?
cheald 9 hours ago||
Technical analysis is the projection of future price data through analysis of past price data (usually for the purpose of trying to create trendlines or find "patterns"). Options pricing is quite a different beast - it encodes marketwide uncertainty about the future price of the underlying, which has little to do with the past price action of the underlying, and everything to do with all known information about the actual underlying company, including fundamentals analysis, market sentiment, future expectations and risks, etc.

To put it another way, to price an option I need a) the current price of the underlying, b) the time until option expiry, c) the strike price of the option, and d) the collective expectation of how much the underlying's price will vary over the period between now and expiry. This last piece is "volatility", and is the only piece that can't be empirically measured; instead, through price discovery on a sufficiently liquid contract, we can reparameterize the formula to empirically derive the volatility expectation which satisfies that current price (or "implied volatility"). Due to the efficient market hypothesis, we can generally treat this as a best-effort proxy for all public information about the underlying. None of this calculation requires any measurement or analysis of the underlying's past price action, patterns, etc. The options price will necessarily include TA traders' sentiments about the underlying based on their TA (or whatever else), just as it will include fundamentals traders' sentiments (and, if you're quick and savvy enough, insiders' advance knowledge!) The price fundamentally reflects market sentiment about the future, not some projection of trends from the past.

t_serpico 9 hours ago||
how so? (i'm not too familiar)