Posted by bigwheels 1 day ago
It does hurt, that's why all programmers now need an entrepreneurial mindset... you become if you use your skills + new AI power to build a business.
On the contrary if it was for a job in a public sector I would just let the LLM spit out some output and play stupid, since salary is very low.
I expect interviews will evolve into "build project X with an LLM while we watch" and audit of agent specs
fun stats: corelation is real, people who were good at vibe code, also had offer(s) with other companies that didn't run vibe code interviews.
Any qualified guesses?
I'm not convinced more traders on wall street will allocate capital more effectively leading to economic growth.
Will more programmers grow the economy? Or should we get real jobs ;)
We’re about a year deep into “AI is changing everything” and I don’t see 10x software quality or output.
Now don’t get me wrong I’m a big fan of AI tooling and think it does meaningfully increase value. But I’m damn tired of all the talk with literally nothing to show for it or back it up.
Anyone wondering what exactly is he actually building? What? Where?
> The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do.
I would LOVE to have jsut syntax errors produced by LLMs, "subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do." are neither subtle nor slightly sloppy, they actually are serious and harmful, and no junior devs have no experience to fix those.
> They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?"
Why just not hand write 100 loc with the help of an LLM for tests, documentation and some autocomplete instead of making it write 1000 loc and then clean it up? Also very difficult to do, 1000 lines is a lot.
> Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day.
It's a computer program running in the cloud, what exactly did he expected?
> Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance.
See above
> 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion.
mmm not sure, if you don't have domain knowledge you could have an initial stubb at the problem, what when you need to iterate over it? You don't if you don't have domain knowledge on your own
> Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels more fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part.
No it's not fun, eg LLMs produce uninteresting uis, mostly bloated with react/html
> Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually.
My bet is that sooner or later he will get back to coding by hand for periods of time to avoid that, like many others, the damage overreliance on these tools bring is serious.
> Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it.
No programming it's not "syntactic details" the practice of programming it's everything but "syntactic details", one should learn how to program not the language X or Y
> What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows a lot.
Yet no measurable econimic effects so far
> Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro).
Did people with a smartphone outperformed photographers?
They have to maintain the hype until a somewhat credible exit appears and therefore lash out with boomer memes, FOMO, and the usual insane talking points like "there are builders and coders".
>Anyone wondering what exactly is he actually building? What? Where?
this is trivially answerable. it seems like they did not do even the slightest bit of research before asking question after question to seem smart and detailed.
Quite insightful.
> "IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to manual coding. TLDR everyone has their developing flow, my current is a small few CC sessions on the left in ghostty windows/tabs and an IDE on the right for viewing the code + manual edits."
Empowering people to do 10 times as much as they could before means they hit 100 times the roadblocks. Again, in a lot of ways we've already lived in that reality for the past many years. On a task-by-task basis programming today is already a lot easier than it was 20 years ago, and we just grew our desires and the amount of controls and process we apply. Problems arise faster than solutions. Growing our velocity means we're going to hit a lot more problems.
I'm not saying you're wrong, so much as saying, it's not the whole story and the only possibility. A lot of people today are kept out of programming just because they don't want to do that much on a computer all day, for instance. That isn't going to change. There's still going to be skills involved in being better than other people at getting the computers to do what you want.
Also on a long term basis we may find that while we can produce entry-level coders that are basically just proxies to the AI by the bucketful that it may become very difficult to advance in skills beyond that, and those who are already over the hurdle of having been forced to learn the hard way may end up with a very difficult to overcome moat around their skills, especially if the AIs plateau for any period of time. I am concerned that we are pulling up the ladder in a way the ladder has never been pulled up before.
The juniors though will radically have to upskill. The standard junior dev portfolio can be replicated by claude code in like three prompts
The game has changed and I don't think all the players are ready to handle it
I personally think the barrier is going to get higher, not lower. And we will be back expected to do more.
Day after day the global quality of software and learning resources will degrade as LLM grey goo consumes every single nook and cranny of the Internet. We will soon see the first signs of pure cargo cult design patterns, conventions and schemes that LLMs made up and then regurgitated. Only people who learned before LLMs became popular will know that they are not to be followed.
People who aren't learning to program without LLMs today are getting left behind.
its opposite, now in addition to all other skills, you need skill how to handle giant codebases of viobe-coded mess using AI.