Think you mean crypto currency here?
> used by a generation of investors
How short is a generation for investors? Aren't we near 20 year highs as far as US bond rates?
I guess the point is that this is more about the Yen than about US bonds?
That had the effect that their banks took huge amounts of government loans and used it to buy foreign assets. As returns are higher in countries with higher interest rates, and lots of assets are practically safe, like government bonds, that is close to free money for them, and a very cheap loan to the receiving country.
But last year their central bank made the interest rate positive. And investors are acting on the expected way, selling the foreign assets and paying off their government. The article is claiming that this is the cause of the recent turbulence in the investment markets.
The issue was the terms. There was a lot of logic inversion that someone who's much more familiar with the terms could probably follow, especially when trying to understand how an investment in Microsoft was loosing value when the investment was from a loan in yen.
Likewise, the end of the article uses a lot of abbreviations, especially when referring to Australian currency, which I just don't understand at all.
Those abbreviations are mostly for foreign exchange derivatives. That is, contracts that don't involve trading currency, but have terms that depend on the price of those currencies.
Derivatives are quick to react to anything, so if you are looking for some kind of trigger signal, you will find it there first. But they are also quick to react to nothing, so even if you find a trigger signal there are still some good odds that nothing happened.
One one relevant index there that isn't a forex derivative is VIX. Well, it's supposed to measure how much the S&P500 will go down in the future, but I have no idea what actually goes in it. If you want to look into it, I think the place to start is this:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/vix-intro/
(Oh, and the article makes a great deal of VIX being low, but on the time we took to read and discuss it, it's already quite high.)
I'm aware of an "AI bubble" and the over-concentration on the "Magnificent 7".
What else is obvious to people and why is the timeframe (next 4 years) so obvious?
That's the obvious part. The consequences of that are anyone's guess, as is the timeframe. But it's not a sustainable situation, so something is bound to happen to change it eventually.
People have been claiming the end is near since forever; economists have been saying for months now that stocks should already be falling, but they are going up. And also, it feels good to be part of the in-group that just knows more than everyone else. Just ask a prepper: they will be equally convinced.
So in summary, even if we’re headed for another crisis, unless you’re only a few years from pension, you’ll just sit this one out calmly, just like all crises before. Unless the global economy breaks down for good (in which case you’ve got other things to worry about), your ETF will recover. Don’t let the fear mongers get into your head.
"support my thesis and ignore alternative explanations and contrary evidence on whether there's even a there, there" AI-research slop.
Is this true?
Absolutely.
And guys like Tim Poole got famous off Occupy, then parlayed that fame into building an audience for themselves.
The libertarians at OWS never went away, they just found new causes.
I was at the HUMONGOUS rally that Obama held in Portland in 2008.
The epicenter of OWS was based a few blocks away, years later, and reflected the optimism of 2008 hardening into frustration over Wall Street excess.
Tea party was the clear predecessor to the maga movement, with its nucleation point being simple racist backlash against obama and trump being personally & directly involved in stoking that racism. In retrospect it obviously laid the groundwork for trump's movement, and I can't see any direct link from occupy to tea party other than perhaps some individuals like tunney.
The tea party was a right wing populist movement and maga is an extreme right populist movement that emerges a handful of years later, with astounding overlap in membership, and you don't think they're connected? ok.
Trump told people "you're OK".
It is what people need to hear