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Posted by ecto 13 hours ago

The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday(campedersen.com)
894 points | 514 commentspage 5
arscan 11 hours ago|

  Don't worry about the future
  Or worry, but know that worrying
  Is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing Bubble gum
  The real troubles in your life
  Are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind
  The kind that blindsides you at 4 p.m. on some idle Tuesday

    - Everybody's free (to wear sunscreen)
         Baz Luhrmann
         (or maybe Mary Schmich)
jesse__ 12 hours ago||
The meme at the top is absolute gold considering the point of the article. 10/10
wffurr 12 hours ago|
Why does one of them have the state flag of Ohio? What AI-and-Ohio-related news did I miss?
adzm 11 hours ago||
Note that the only landmass on Earth is actually Ohio as well. Turns out, it's all Ohio. And it always has been. https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/wait-its-all-ohio-always-has-...
wffurr 10 hours ago||
Thanks - I should have done an image search on the whole image. Instead, I clipped out the flag from the astronaut's shoulder and searched that, which how I found out it was the Ohio flag. I just assumed it was an AI-generated image by the author and not a common meme template.
Scarblac 10 hours ago||
https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1096,quality=8...
socialcommenter 5 hours ago||
The hyperbolic fit isn't just unhinged, it's clearly in bad faith. The metric is normalized to [0, 1], and one of the series is literally (x_1, 0) followed by (x_2, 1). That can't be deemed to converge to anything meaningful.
marifjeren 8 hours ago||
> I [...] fit a hyperbolic model to each one independently

^ That's your problem right there.

Assuming a hyperbolic model would definitely result in some exuberant predictions but that's no reason to think it's correct.

The blog post contains no justification for that model (besides well it's a "function that hits infinity"). I can model the growth of my bank account the same way but that doesn't make it so. Unfortunately.

twoodfin 7 hours ago||
Indeed. At various points you could have presumably done an identical analysis with journal articles and climate change, string theory, functional programming… terms & reached structurally the same conclusion.

The coming Singularity: When human institutions will cease being able to coherently react to monads!

azeirah 7 hours ago||
If I understand the author correctly, he chose the hyperbolic model specifically because the story of "the singularity" _requires_ a function that hits infinity.

He's looking for a model that works for the story in the media and runs with it.

Your criticism seems to be criticizing the story, not the author's attempt to take it "seriously"

marifjeren 7 hours ago||
Correct.
Curiositiy 4 hours ago||
Rosie O'Donnell will expand into "her" ultimate shape on a Tuesday? Wow.
Taniwha 7 hours ago||
I was at an alternative type computer unconference and someone has organised a talk about the singularity, it was in a secondary school classroom and as evening fell in a room full of geeks no one could figure out how to turn on the lights .... we concluded that the singularity probably wasn't going to happen
jama211 11 hours ago||
A fantastic read, even if it makes a lot of silly assumptions - this is ok because it’s self aware of it.

Who knows what the future will bring. If we can’t make the hardware we won’t make much progress, and who knows what’s going to happen to that market, just as an example.

Crazy times we live in.

regnull 11 hours ago||
Guys, yesterday I spent some time convincing an LLM model from a leading provider that 2 cards plus 2 cards is 4 cards which is one short of a flush. I think we are not too close to a singularity, as it stands.
charcircuit 10 hours ago||
Why bring that up when you could bring up AI autonomously optimizing AI training and autonomously fixing bugs in AI training and inference code. Showing that AI already is accelerating self improvement would help establish the claim that we are getting closer to the singularity.
scotty79 9 hours ago||
You convince AI manually instead of asking one AI to convince another?

That's so last week!

TooKool4This 9 hours ago|
I don’t feel like reading what is probably AI generated content. But based on looking at the model fits where hyperbolic models are extrapolating from the knee portion, having 2 data points fitting a line, fitting an exponential curve to a set of data measured in %, poor model fit in general, etc, im going to say this is not a very good prediction methodology.

Sure is a lot of words though :)

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