Posted by Bender 5 hours ago
Then they compare that numerator to Tesla’s own “minor collision” benchmark — which is not police-reported fender benders; it’s a telemetry-triggered “collision event” keyed to airbag deployment or delta-V ≥ 8 km/h. Different definitions. Completely bogus ratio.
Any comparison to police-reported crashes is hilariously stupid for obvious reasons.
On top of that, the denominator is hand-waved ("~800k paid miles extrapolated"), which is extra sketchy because SGO crashes can happen during non-paid repositioning/parking while "paid miles" excludes those segments. And we’re talking 14 events in one geofenced, early rollout in Austin so your confidence interval is doing backflips. If you want a real claim vs humans, do matched Austin exposure, same reportable-crash criteria, severity stratification, and show uncertainty bands.
But what you get instead is clickbait so stop falling for this shit please HN.
Though maybe the safety drivers are good enough for the major stuff, and the software is just bad enough at low speed and low distance collisions where the drivers don't notice as easily that the car is doing something wrong before it happens.
We are still a long, long, long way off for someone to feel comfortable jumping in a FSD cab on a rainy night in in New York.
There's no real discussion to be had on any of this. Just people coming in to confirm their biases.
As for me, I'm happy to make and take bets on Tesla beating Waymo. I've heard all these arguments a million times. Bet some money
Heard this for a decade now, but I’m sure this year will be different!
I would also love to see every car brand have full autonomous driving. It seems like you think you must be in one camp or another, and that one has to "beat" the other - but that's not true. Both can be successful - wouldn't that be a great world?
[1] https://www.fastcompany.com/91491273/waymo-vehicle-hit-a-chi....
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/22/musk-tesla-robotaxis-us-expa...
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the company’s robotaxis will be “widespread” in the U.S. by the end of 2026.