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Posted by somerandomness 10 hours ago

Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI(twitter.com)
85 points | 61 commentspage 2
aleksiy123 6 hours ago|
Out of curiosity, is it possible to see everyone's bets and positions in real time?

Or is the info only available later?

I'm guessing that bots predicting insiders and copying positions is already a thing.

SamPatt 6 hours ago|
You can see when they buy or sell a position. It's on the blockchain so it's all public. And yes, copying positions is called copy-trading and it's extremely popular.

Orders aren't public though. Only the actual trades. This is important because by the time the trade is known by others very often the edge is gone. Especially if you have other people watching the same trader and they all try to copy the trade at the same time.

swingboy 4 hours ago||
If it takes so long for the actual trades to show up then why is copy-trading popular?
0x3f 3 hours ago||
Not all strategies are low-latency, so you can copy trade someone with a buy and hold approach. For example someone you think is an insider or whale who might influence the outcome.
nodesocket 3 hours ago|
There is 100% insider-trading and manipulation of prediction markets. It's absurd some of the markets that are created. The most glaring example was this years super bowl halftime show. They had markets on songs Bad Bunny would sing, which song he would sing first, etc. You're telling me the thousands of people who had access to practices and information would not wager on this?
0x3f 3 hours ago|
You can just stand near the stadium during practice and glean this info. I believe people did exactly that.