Posted by ceejayoz 16 hours ago
Second: LLMs spit out what is crammed into them. Nuclear weapons dominated international politics and wargames/simulations and war college navel-gazing for what, 75-80 years or so? Political papers. Fictional works. Society has a TON of popular media about nuclear war.
Why is anyone surprised that LLM responses are very influenced by nukes?
maybe intelligence isn't the only thing
One crucial difference is that they recommended that as the lesser of two evils, arguing it would be better to make the first strike before the USSR had a huge arsenal to strike back than to wait for an inevitable more devastating war.
So far, it seems they were wrong in thinking a nuclear war with the USSR was inevitable.
You can be certified genius in many areas but to assume that intelligence extends to all areas would be folly.
Game theory obvious? Maybe. Geopolitically? Human-wise? Doubtful.
I’m generally very suspicious of anything / anyone that recommended killing millions as the best option.
The answer cannot be posted or discussed in earnest on the 'open' internet, but I think the answer is making itself more obvious every day.
For thousands of years, the culture with the upper hand in technology has always wiped out everyone else. So when US had the bomb and USSR didn't, there was a short window to take over the world. Even more than the US did.
Maybe the US conspiracy theory people wouldn't mind a 'one world government' if that government was actually the US.
And unipolar worlds seem to be more peaceful than fragmented worlds. Fragmented worlds get WW1.
The US also didn’t understand how much work had to be done to get their weapon onto an aircraft, etc - so the worst case scenario always turns out to be too bad to consider rationally (MAD)
Well we know he was wrong as his entire premise was based on war being inevitable - all the logic flows from that one wrong assumption.
Also trying to take out supposed capabilities before they are built - doesn't mean the Russia people are suddenly freed from communism. ( cf Iran ). Also there is a premise that it's somehow a one off event. When in reality you'd have to constantly monitor and potentially constantly strike ( cf Iran ).
Eastern Europe bore the brunt of the war's damage and was left for 50 year under the oppressive boot of the stupidest ideology the world has ever known. And poorly executed to boot.
1)Seems like if the ais knew it was a game, then theyd go nuklear because why not. If they did NOT know it was a game... well have you ever tried to use an ai to do ANYTHING antsocial? They refuse all day long!
2) seems like a fun thing to set up on your own. Id do it like a tabletop game with a computer DM to decide the outcomes ofveach turn. Maybe a human in the loop to make sure the numbers made sense.
If anyone might know about terminology, scenarios, examples, technologies, projects that help with learning about this kind of stuff (or what I might be really getting at), would super appreciate anything towards anything I might want to look into and learn more from - sans LLM fishing.
Professor Kenneth Payne's research is in political psychology and strategic studies