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Posted by zlatkov 17 hours ago

OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation(techcrunch.com)
https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/

https://x.com/sama/status/2027386252555919386

https://xcancel.com/sama/status/2027386252555919386

463 points | 504 commentspage 7
EdNutting 16 hours ago||
Circular-breathing causes the air to heat up, causing expansion. This is how a balloon can expand even when someone is breathing air from inside it.

s/breathing/investment/g s/balloon/bubble/g s/air/money/g

layer8 16 hours ago|
I performed the suggested substitution. What is the heating up of money in that analogy?
EdNutting 16 hours ago||
Sarcastically, it's "the vibes intensifying".

(Vibes ~ Vibrations ~ Heat)

Tbf it's a reasonable question... I think it's a little tricky to pin down the equivalent of "kinetic energy" in purely economic terms, though you might look at the rate of flow of money as some analogy for the speed/energy of particles (speed of individual dollars changing hands). In that sense, the more frequent and larger these deals get, the hotter the market is. This is not a novel analogy.

MarcLore 7 hours ago||
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aplomb1026 8 hours ago||
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IhateAI_2 17 hours ago||
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paxys 16 hours ago||
Two economists were walking down the street when they spotted a giant dog turd on the ground.

One of them wanted to have some fun, so said to the other - "I'll give you $100 if you take a big bite of that turd".

His colleague figured $100 was a good chunk of cash, so did the deed. Feeling thoroughly humiliated, he pocketed the $100 and they carried on.

Further down the street they came upon another turd.

The angry economist now wanted revenge so made the same proposal back to his colleague, who also agreed and took a bite of the turd, earning back his $100.

Later one of them said to the other "you know, I can't help but feel we both ate shit for no reason."

His collegue replied "what do you mean? We raised the national GDP by $200."

whatever1 16 hours ago||
The number is irrelevant. The fact is that work was done and was repaid with work.

Money was just the means of the transaction.

well_ackshually 14 hours ago||
work good even if work literally eating shit

surely that behavior leads to a good society and doesn't encourage nefarious behaviors

howardYouGood 13 hours ago||
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bwfan123 16 hours ago|||
> We raised the national GDP by $200.

Seeing this phenomenon, a silicon valley entrepreneur get an idea with the following sales pitch:

"Turd-bars that will make you the fittest version of yourself , answer all your deepest questions, and take you to the promised land (mars)."

Surprisingly, the turd-bars sell well, and GDP rockets up. Meanwhile VCs with fomo are funding its competitor: the shit-sandwich.

oersted 16 hours ago||
I did upvote, it's witty, but it's a bit of a misrepresentation of how the economy works.

In practice, people don't tend to pay people to eat shit without gain. You are paying people to help you. Money gaslights everyone into helping each other, the most selfish people become the most selfless.

Of course, real capitalism is much more complex and much uglier than this fantasy. When certain people end up with long-term control of large piles of money, the whole thing gets distorted. They get to make lots of money on interest without doing anything, and making other people eat more shit for scraps. That's the "capital" part of capitalism.

But the toy world-model that this joke is making fun of, is actually the one core positive aspect of capitalism and brings all the prosperity we have: tricking people into helping each other.

disqard 14 hours ago|||
> the most selfish people become the most selfless

You reminded me of this Stewart Brand quote:

> Computers suppress our animal presence. When you communicate through a computer, you communicate like an angel.

paxys 14 hours ago|||
I scratch your back for a $10M IOU.

You scratch my back for a $10M IOU.

The debts cancel out.

How is the economic gain calculated?

chirau 16 hours ago||
If OpenAI is Pied Piper, who is Russ Hanneman in all this?
bigfishrunning 10 hours ago||
I would vote for Once-CEO-Then-not-then-CEO-Again Hypeman Sam Altman
metalliqaz 10 hours ago||
I like to point out that he was fired for egregious dishonesty.
phist_mcgee 10 hours ago||
Jensen Huang? He put GPUs on the internet!
ai_fry_ur_brain 17 hours ago||
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gigatexal 18 hours ago||
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dang 12 hours ago||
"Don't be curmudgeonly. Thoughtful criticism is fine, but please don't be rigidly or generically negative."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

lnsru 18 hours ago||
It’s not craze. It’s technology shift. Bitcoin and 3D printing were craze. It’s like a move from analog photography to digital. I am telling you this as a very conservative person. Even for me it’s helpful.
rob74 17 hours ago|||
3D printing is helpful too. The infrastructure created during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s was also helpful. The UK is still profiting from the railway infrastructure created during the railway craze of the 1840s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania). The question is just how much of the valuation of AI companies is because they are useful and how much is speculation...
boelboel 17 hours ago||||
3D printing has a CAGR of 18-25%, not exactly 'were craze'
mikkupikku 18 hours ago||||
> 3D printing were craze

That's certainly a take, industry loves it. Sure, all that "everybody will print widgets at home instead of going to the store" stuff was never going to happen, but 3d printing is nonetheless here to stay.

consp 17 hours ago|||
I do not long back to the days of reused boxes and ducktape as homes for my electronics. It's here to stay.
wooger 15 hours ago|||
It's a manufacturing technique that is helpful for prototyping and makes sense some types of small scale manufacturing.

But it's not magical, and not much different to injection moulding or something in concept.

Almost everything created with home level 3d printers is plastic junk you can buy for a few dollars on aliexpress (without weird rough edges).

afavour 17 hours ago||||
It can be both a craze and a technology shift. AI isn't going away, it will transform some industries. But right now it's overhyped, overfunded and due a trip back to reality.
skeeter2020 17 hours ago||||
It most definitely COULD be a craze from the perspective of scope of investment, societal impact and timing. No one surfing the crest of this wave could be described as "conservative".
qsera 18 hours ago||||
So how much are you willing to pay for it?
whynotminot 17 hours ago|||
Personally at this point my combined AI spend is the most expensive recurring monthly subscription I have, and that’s even with my company also paying for the AI tools I use at work.

If it weren’t subsidized I would pay more. Wouldn’t be happy about it but I would do it.

At this stage in the game I don’t really understand where this skepticism of the value these tools provides comes from.

beernet 17 hours ago|||
> At this stage in the game I don’t really understand where this skepticism of the value these tools provides comes from.

Fear

whynotminot 17 hours ago||
I get it. I’m scared too. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t.
qsera 17 hours ago|||
Actually it is not about this stage. It is about the sustainability of this when training data runs out and there is less and less human generated content.

An echo cannot go on forever!

whynotminot 17 hours ago||
> Actually it is not about this stage. It is about the sustainability of this when training data runs out

This is an argument from 2024. Somehow, the models have continued to improve.

If they stopped improving today they are good enough as they already are to generate profound change.

The wave front is already visible, we’re just on the shore waiting for the impact.

qsera 17 hours ago||
When training data runs out, they usefulness will diminish quickly. They will still be useful for searching documents etc, but I guess they are not good at that even now.
AnimalMuppet 17 hours ago||
When training data runs out, their usefulness will stop growing quickly. Why should their usefulness diminish?
qsera 17 hours ago||
Because they would not be up-to date with programming languages, tools, best practices etc.

May be there is some way to keep the model up-to date in less dramatic ways. But I think something gotto give..

I mean, even now the vibe coded stuff is reprehensible.

viking123 17 hours ago|||
20 bucks a month
rvz 17 hours ago||||
> It’s not craze. It’s technology shift.

It is a bubble with extreme levels of debt + funding from too many promises from companies that are in these sort of rounds.

People being consumed by the hype will also be completely consumed by the crash.

Comments like this is exactly how a 2000 and a 2008 style crash will happen.

nalekberov 17 hours ago||||
> Bitcoin and 3D printing were craze.

What bitcoin gave us essentially? Huge pump and dump schemes coordinated by big hands? Crypto investments which made 95% of investors poorer? What's left? Maybe 0.01% of it was beneficial.

lstodd 17 hours ago||
Freedom from overregulated and antiquated retail banking especially wrt cross-border transfers.

I guess it isn't that noticeable from inside US, but the rest of the world is grateful.

baal80spam 15 hours ago||
> the rest of the world is grateful.

Maybe speak for yourself? As part of the rest of the world, I am not grateful.

lstodd 13 hours ago||
And I do. Speak, that is.
baggachipz 17 hours ago|||
"This time it's different!"
pigeons 14 hours ago|
Does anyone have any ethical concerns using openai regarding money donated to the current US administration in one way or another? I will search for more accurate details about that situation. I know about several other ethical concerns with openai that people have, including copyright and other considerations regarding the work being trained on, as well as lack of action regarding users who are harmed by their usage of the product, often regarding mental health, environmental concerns, actually quite a few others, but I am interested if many people think their political donations are an issue or not.