Posted by todsacerdoti 23 hours ago
In fact it will probably need to happen a few times PER org for the dust to settle. It will take several years.
I recall a time, maybe around 2013-2017, when people were talking about 4 or 5 nines. But sometime around then the goalposts shifted, and instead of trying to make things as reliable as possible, it started becoming more about seeing how unreliable they can get before anyone notices or cares. It turns out people will suffer through a lot if there's some marginal benefit--remember what personal computers were like in the 1990s before memory protection? Vibe coding is just another chapter in that user hostile epic. Convenient reliability, like this author describes, (if it can be achieved) might actually make things better? But my money isn't on that.
Compiled languages like Go and Rust are my new default for projects on the backend, typescript with strict typing on for the frontend, and I foresee the popularity growing the more LLM use grows. The moment you let an LLM loose in a Javascript/Python codebase everything goes off the rails.
We've got fossil fuels that were deposited over millions of years, a timescale we are not even properly equipped to imagine. We've been tapping that reserve for a few decades and it's caused all kinds of problems. We've painted ourselves into a corner and can't get out.
Now we've got a few decades worth of software to tap. When you use an LLM you don't create anything new, you just recycle what's already there. How long until we find ourselves in a very similar corner?
The inability of people to think ahead really astounds me. Sustainability should be at the forefront of everyone's mind, but it's barely even an afterthought. Rather, people see a tap running and just drink from it without questioning once where the water is coming from. It's a real animal brain thing. It'll get you as far as reproducing, but that's about it.
I don’t think we’ll get those exact things back but we will see more specification and design than we do today.
The collapse of civilisation is real.