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Posted by bigwheels 10 hours ago

The Brand Age(paulgraham.com)
227 points | 202 commentspage 5
shoman3003 8 hours ago|
finally, a new essay. and coincidently, its about something i have been thinking about all week.
ls-a 3 hours ago||
pg no longer in his golden age
crowcroft 8 hours ago||
In almost every category meaningful differentiation is a myth. It sounds nice to tell yourself you've got it and talk about moats or whatever, but it misses the point.

What people usually mean when they talk about differentiation is distinctiveness [1]. Design isn't a differentiator for these watches it's about being distinctive. At the end of the day when telling the time is commoditized, and expensive watches are just a status symbol it's all you've got.

[1] - https://marketingscience.info/news-and-insights/differentiat...

another_twist 4 hours ago||
GPT doing a great job summarizing and providing a counter:

what's they key thesis here and the argument ?

*Key thesis:* When technology eliminates meaningful performance differences between products, industries shift from competing on *engineering and function* to competing on *brand and status*. The Swiss watch industry after the quartz crisis is a clear example: mechanical watches stopped being valuable tools and became *luxury symbols whose value comes mainly from branding, scarcity, and signaling wealth*.

*In one sentence:* The essay argues that when technology makes functional differences between products disappear, industries shift from engineering competition to branding competition, and the modern luxury watch market illustrates how that transformation works.

---

If you want, I can also explain *why this essay is controversial among economists and designers*—there are a few big assumptions in the argument.

And the counter A few places the argument is debatable (even if it’s persuasive as a narrative):

It treats “brand” and “engineering” as mostly opposed. In practice, luxury buyers often do pay for engineering (finishing, durability, serviceability, movement architecture), and those technical choices can reinforce brand rather than fight it. The tension is real, but not always zero-sum.

It downplays other drivers of the Swiss recovery. The rebound isn’t only “they discovered brand.” Things like Swatch’s role in recapitalizing distribution/production, industry consolidation, improvements in manufacturing, and globalization of luxury demand can explain a lot of the late-1980s revenue surge alongside marketing.

The “artificial scarcity = managed asset bubble” framing is provocative but contestable. Scarcity can be interpreted as: capacity constraints, quality control, long-term brand stewardship, or channel strategy—not necessarily “bubble management.” It may function bubble-like in resale markets, but that doesn’t prove intent or fragility in the way financial bubbles work.

Some claims are asserted more than demonstrated. Examples: Rolex “abandoned research” after ~1960; “only three survived as independents”; “most brands are owned by six holding companies”; “they rebuy hundreds per year.” These might be true in broad strokes, but the essay uses them as load-bearing supports without showing evidence in-text (beyond a couple notes).

The design-history claims are simplified. Watch size and shape trends aren’t only branding; they’re also driven by changing tastes, ergonomics, manufacturing norms, sport/tool styling, and shifting notions of masculinity. “Big = cheap historically” is directionally true in some eras, but not a universal law.

The gender section is especially shaky. “Women never really went for mechanical watches” and the steam-engine analogy read like overgeneralizations—there are strong counterexamples (and cultural variation) that complicate that story.

zahlman 3 hours ago|
Please don't post like this. We could trivially get this take ourselves if we cared for it. It would be obvious that this is ChatGPT even without a disclaimer, and the analysis is exactly as formulaic and facile as you'd expect. (How could it reasonably conclude that pg's just-written essay is "controversial among economists and designers", let alone why? It's not making social media rounds; it was just published today; search engine results are mostly unrelated stuff and certainly aren't pointing to discussion...).
gaigalas 7 hours ago||
Chinese models are indeed cheaper!
itisit 8 hours ago||
> That turns out to be a profitable business though.

He does not disappoint. Also, not buying the watch industry parable.

bogardon 8 hours ago||
Is it just me or are an increasing number of (high profile) people in the tech industry into luxury watches these days?
kridsdale1 8 hours ago||
Gotta do something with those RSUs.

I asked Claude to psychoanalyze why I got obsessed with them and it said I’m likely striving for something tangible that appeals to my engineer mindset that isn’t now obsolete in the age of AI. It’s my career’s existentialism.

Herring 8 hours ago||
That sounds overly edgy. Tangibility has value, like buttons making a comeback in cars.
observationist 8 hours ago|||
Status games are evergreen, and a lot of conspicuous consumption has fallen out of fashion. They've gotta flaunt their wealth and position somehow, and lambos are just too crypto-bro and gauche.

It's also a sales tactic - a watch can be a schelling point if you're looking to network with someone who's into it.

kridsdale1 8 hours ago||
Watches were understated in the 70s and turned more to gold in the 80s and a super proliferation of diversity in the 90s. 90s also had machismo Schwarzenegger sized cases for steroid men.

2000s brought Hiphop bling culture to them which embraced maximalism with size further increasing and 85 diamonds and rubies being something worthy of showing.

2010s austerity led to a retreat all the way to 1940s style trench and dress watches, cases back to 38mm.

Post Covid, boldness is having a comeback. See the newest Planet Ocean. We are seeing bling and ostentatious gold again on celebrities this year.

mrexcess 8 hours ago||
Anecdotally, in the trenches, I'm seeing a proliferation of Casio F-91w and AE-1200s. Maybe a counter response, lol.
7777777phil 9 hours ago||
Nike is a useful test case (1) here. Brand was the whole competitive moat for them and once athletic gear commoditized, then management spent five years cutting the things that sustain it: athlete relationships, premium positioning, product development. Each cut looked (somewhat) rational on its own but none of them were, taken together.

(1) https://philippdubach.com/posts/nikes-crisis-and-the-economi...

EDIT: Nevermind comments are apparently just a pg meta discussion..

fragmede 8 hours ago||
The question is, in this new software world order, how much do brands matter vs what they've done vs network effects. I could have Claude code shit out a Facebook or Twitter clone, or an Uber clone, and have none of the baggage of Cambridge Analytica, being owned by Elon Musk, or Travis kalanick of Greyball and S. Fowler legacy. An Uber driver-turned-dev could easily stand up a competitor and give way more money to the drivers simply by not having the overhead that Uber has with lawyers and executive salaries in this age of ChatGPT. Drivers will go to where there's riders and money, and riders will go to where there's drivers and cheaper rides. (and no drivers.) If someone needs an app idea to work on, it's the incumbents, without the suck. Facebook without "People just submitted it. I don't know why. They 'trust me'. Dumb fucks."

Because looking at Truth Social and Gab, people do adopt brands as part of their identity; and Uber but for drivers, or Facebook, without the spying, are trivial to make the software side of things on now. The fact that we haven't seen a dozen Uber competitors spring up is a testament to the fact that branding is a helluva moat. It's impossible to put a dollar value on it, but ChatGPT has no moat, except that it's Chat-fucking-GPT. The original chatbot and no matter how good Claude gets, it'll never be the original.

lionkor 8 hours ago|||
Also those vibe coded competitors will not make it. Feel free to try though
JumpCrisscross 8 hours ago||
> those vibe coded competitors will not make it

Some of them will. And I suspect the set of markets in which they do will only increase—traditional SWE is probably dying, hard as that is to accept. But the fundamentals of engineering and business are nowhere close to going away. And those are the actually-hard parts of business.

zahlman 3 hours ago||||
> I could have Claude code shit out a... clone, and have none of the baggage...

Social media is different because of the network effects. Taking hold requires being there to catch refugees when something else collapses, and being sensitive to the fact of that collapse. It seems like quite a bit of luck is often required.

But you could also, you know, actually try to differentiate yourself. Figure out actual things that you'd want those sites to do differently, and have an opinion on which different approach to take.

And I especially wouldn't try with Twitter, because there are already at least two major competitors, and the people who have fled to them, in broad terms, seem to have done so based more on internal social strife than on any technical dissatisfaction. (Despite all the seemingly obvious technical issues to complain about!)

JumpCrisscross 8 hours ago||||
> I could have Claude code shit out a Facebook or Twitter clone, or an Uber clone

No, you couldn’t. At best you’d turn out a video game simulating Uber. The idea that all of the business is in its software seems to be one Silicon Valley perennially unlearns.

fragmede 7 hours ago|||
As long as we agree that code generation is capable of creating a video game simulating Uber, we're on the same page. The fact that there's more to a business than a flashy bit of software is exactly my point! The idea that Silicon Valley is one dude who doesn't get it is as old as the valley itself.
alephnerd 8 hours ago|||
I've found the newer generation of founders understand that. The issue is they don't use HN anymore.

I've noticed a significant tone and demographic shift on the site over the past 2-3 years with more Western Europeans and Midwesterners and fewer Bay Area+NYC users, and fewer decisionmakers or decisionmaking adjacent people using the site.

And the deeply technical types who used HN largely shifted to lobste.rs.

Karrot_Kream (another longtime HN user) identified this shift as well [0]

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=Karrot_Kream

fragmede 7 hours ago||
I agree. Where did they go? Blind? Private Slack/discords?
Karrot_Kream 6 hours ago|||
The Bay Area/NYC and founder adjacent folks I know are mostly on group chats and messaging apps. Fundamentally the signal on this site is too low to be of use in those conversations. It's difficult to discuss decisionmaking in a forum full of random Fortune 100 employee deep in a torrid company hierarchy complaining about what their management hierarchy wants them to do.

There's also a tension between the increasing "community building" happening on HN and the Bay Area/NYC crowd. A lot of them have an extant community largely based on in-person relationships. The more HN builds its own community, the more you alienate this set of people. In other words, Slashdotification is happening more and more to HN where a set of very online tech people who don't really make decisions generate most of the chatter on this site.

alephnerd 7 hours ago|||
The younger generation of founders meets in-person and uses iMessage and Instagram. The older generation meets in-person and uses iMessage, Signal, or WhatsApp.

The reality is, most people are in-person now and conversations that were happening on HN because of the pandemic are now being done offline.

Blind is toxic, but at least the users are cynically realistic.

kridsdale1 8 hours ago|||
(I look over to the Coca-Cola Classic on my table that I picked because my taste buds prefer the classic brand)
stackghost 8 hours ago||
Your taste buds prefer the flavor, not the brand. If they changed their name to "Caramel Diet Fanta" but kept the recipe identical, you'd still enjoy the taste.

The New Coke brand failed because people didn't like the taste, not the other way around.

nicole_express 7 hours ago|||
New Coke is a very interesting counterpoint to the brand focus, but on the other hand, they did at the time make a very big push of it being "New" Coke. Hard to tell what would've happened if they had just swapped out the formula.

I drink Diet Coke, which is basically the same formula that became New Coke with chemical sludge instead of sugar, and it tastes pretty good to my tongue to the point where I drink it over Coke Zero, the one closer to "the real thing".

organsnyder 8 hours ago|||
Every time I drink a Coke (or any other soft drink), the brand's baggage (good and bad) is present. Unless you're doing a blind taste test, it's impossible to avoid that.
stackghost 8 hours ago||
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nimchimpsky 7 hours ago||
[dead]
busterarm 9 hours ago|
I can't respond to tzury's comment because it's already flagged and dead but I honestly don't think that's quite fair on this board.

The very same people who would be flagging that comment wouldn't bat an eye at saying they won't read or support anything by folks like DHH, or a hundred other prominent tech figures who have committed some ideological-wrong.

It's just a similarly heavy-handed reaction from the other side of the divide.

I don't find anything wrong or downvotable about people voicing perfectly valid criticisms about pg, his opinions, who he associates with and signal-boosts...unless these standards you all want to apply wrt cancellation are "for thee and not for me".

mikestew 8 hours ago||
The very same people who would be flagging that comment wouldn't bat an eye at saying they won't read or support anything by folks like…

First off, you might be right for some small number of cases, but I’d flag any and all rants such as this, regardless of the target. Off-topic, and doesn’t contribute to the conversation.

Second, for those as you describe, when they go off on an off-topic rant about DHH, someone else will conveniently flag it.

busterarm 7 hours ago||
There is not a single discussion on this board about DHH that doesn't get overrun with posts about what people think about the guy, regardless of the posts' topic.
tomhow 8 hours ago|||
> The very same people who would be flagging that comment wouldn't bat an eye at saying they won't read or support anything by folks like DHH

You have no way of knowing that. The guidelines against off-topic controversy and generic tangents apply, no matter who the author.

fragmede 9 hours ago|||
You've got enough karma to click [vouch] on the comment if you think it shouldn't be dead. It's a bit of a rant, and while there are good points, they're lost in an emotional diatribe and, I mean, I feel for them, but I can also see why it was marked dead.
busterarm 7 hours ago||
I did click vouch, but I also still stick by what I said because I see all sorts of personal, emotional crusades against various tech figures reposted, signal-boosted, amplified, etc. on this board. I'm not saying that you're wrong, I'm just asking people to pause and think about what the comments would look like if this were in response to some other characters...
renewiltord 8 hours ago||
People like being repetitive on this board. Read Google in title and say “I never use Google because killing Reader”. It’s not like LLM. It is worse. Like hashmap. Deterministic same answer. That’s fine for them. But I have no interest in starting everything with a litany, land acknowledgement, and whatever other modern preface required.

We acknowledge this message board is the rightful unceded home of the startup enthusiast people. We affirm their right to it and recognize their sovereignty.

See, you enjoy me bringing pet subject into discussion with nebulous relation? You want always to see it? Good. I will do so. No downvote it unfair.

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