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Posted by enraged_camel 15 hours ago

Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions(twitter.com)
https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3mg...

834 points | 563 commentspage 4
GenerWork 14 hours ago|
There's still the hangover from free Covid money. I think the number one reason that it feels worse is that there's a LOT more people in the industry now than back in 2020. Much more competition than before.
zthrowaway 14 hours ago||
Yup. Amazon doubled their workforce through the pandemic. I think a lot of tech companies are still cutting fat from those days.
kypro 11 hours ago||
Those of us who have been in the industry for 15-20 years we remember a time when tech was just a job.

In the mid 2010s, then most notably in late 2020 - 2021, you had people who had no interest in tech entering the industry because they saw it as an easy career to make decent money in.

It got pretty bad in the late 2010s, but it become almost comical in 2021 with people who took a two-week coding bootcamps suddenly landing 6 figure jobs. Some of these people were even working at multiple companies at the same time.

The optimist in me hopes this all shakes out with those people who had no interest in tech moving on to other things. These types of people were not only bad employees, they were also bad for the industry, and in my opinion responsible for culture shift from tech being a place dominating by "nerds" and "geeks" in the 90/00s to the modern "tech-bro" stereotype.

The realist in me though will continue to warn people the tech job they're working at today is likely their last. Between tech industry growth slowing, the excessive over production of tech talent and AI + SASS automating a lot of traditional software development work it's going to be exponentially harder to remain employed in tech in the coming years.

So much so you might as well find a relatively worse paid job if it means you don't have periods of months of unemployment every year.

gozucito 8 hours ago||
>In the mid 2010s, then most notably in late 2020 - 2021, you had people who had no interest in tech entering the industry because they saw it as an easy career to make decent money in.

I remember it was even earlier than that, in the 90s when Bill Gates became the richest man in the world.

You're right about 6 month bootcamps leading to jobs in 2021 though! A true gold rush.

arun6582 2 hours ago||
whats the point of posting this on HN? is this linkedin i came to HN so i can avoid posts on linkedin.
agentultra 10 hours ago||
Good to know it’s not just me. Sheesh. Are there signs that it’ll bounce back again?

I’ve been looking for work for nearly seven months. I can write low level systems code in C and C++ to web applications in Python and compilers in Haskell. I have tons of industry experience.

Yet most places I apply to ghost me or follow up a month later that the position has been filled.

Companies that have been lying off people claim they are seeing record profits.

It seems like we went from a relatively stable growth to just chaos.

whimsicalism 14 hours ago||
the 2020 ‘recession’ wasn’t really bad for tech employment at all
CrossVR 14 hours ago||
In fact in sectors like the game industry the pandemic resulted in a massive hiring boom. The layoffs only materialized after the pandemic was well and truly over.
johnnyanmac 13 hours ago||
Yeah, pandemic was good overall. Next generation of consoles looming, sales overall were up since people were forced inside, there were finally some loosening of dev kit practices to accommodate for the lack of offices to go into (I never would have imagined in 2015 having a dev kit in my home 5 years later) .Pretty much the only art medium to benefit from the times while cinema collapsed, Streaming services were running a defecit war where no one won except Netflix, and music stalled for a bit.

But as per usual, the bust hit just as hard as the boom. Multiple high profile failures in games and initiatives as a whole, Microsoft and Apple decided to stop bleeding money with their respective subscription deals, mobile gaming (from the advent of Genshin Imapct and co) became less an easy cash grab and more a 2nd wing of AAA development, investments dried up overnight for indies (unless 'AI').

And the headcount, of course: https://variety.com/2026/gaming/news/one-third-video-game-wo...

francisofascii 14 hours ago|||
I think 2001 and 2002 were worse than 2000. I was lucky to find a job in 2002 after graduating. There were hiring freezes and layoffs everywhere.
locusofself 14 hours ago||
on a personal level I was hired (by Microsoft, my first and only "big tech" job) in April 2020 and I am still working here... all these companies "over-hired" during the pandemic, and the term "covid hire" is even a thing..
zdragnar 14 hours ago|||
I remember interviewing someone who got hired by Facebook, sat around for a few weeks for a team to open up while they went through onboarding / Junior training, then was let go.

COVID did weird things to the industry, that's for sure.

jarjoura 13 hours ago|||
Before Musk made it cool to mass layoff, there was a genuine belief inside of Facebook/Meta that great engineers were extremely hard to find or hold onto and if they weren't on the payroll at Meta, they would go somewhere else.

There was always a "clock" for junior engineers to prove they could handle the high pressure and high intensity work, and as long as they were meeting the bar, they were safe.

They called on-boarding, "Bootcamp", and was for every engineer, junior to staff, to learn the process and tooling. Engineers were supposed to be empowered to take on whatever task they wanted, without pre-existing team boundaries if it meant they were able to prove their contributions genuinely improved the product in meaningful ways. So, come in, learn the culture, learn the tooling, meet others, and then at some point, pick your home team. Your home team was flexible, and you were able to spend weeks deciding, and even if you selected one, you could always change, no pressure. Happy engineers were seen as the secret sauce of the company's success.

I remember that summer, vividly. They told the folks in Bootcamp, pick your home team by the end of the week, or you will be stuck in Bootcamp purgatory. At the same time they removed head count from teams, ours went down to a single one. A new-grad, who had literally just arrived that Monday, picked our team on Tuesday, and then had to watch as most of their fellow Bootcamp mates got left behind.

People wondered what would happen to them for weeks, and then, just like that, the massive layoff sent them all home. It was shitty because from where I sat, it was basically a slot machine. Anyone of the folks in Bootcamp were just as capable, but we had one seat, and someone just asked for it first.

locusofself 14 hours ago|||
I seem to hear often that Meta is perhaps the most egregious offender of "hire to fire". Seems really wasteful. But man, they pay their employees a lot.
johnnyanmac 13 hours ago|||
Overhiring implies that MSFT's headcount went down over this time. But that doesn't seem to be the case. They still hire a lot, just not in North America.
jrsj 11 hours ago||
If things continue to get worse I really worry how many people might give up on life entirely. A lot of people in this industry don’t have a whole lot else going on for them, myself included.

I grinded my 20s away trying to have a successful career and if that just gets pulled out from under me I’ve got absolutely nothing.

kilroy123 10 hours ago||
I know a very senior engineer who took their life the day after Trump was elected. He was unemployed for a while.

While I think a lot more was going on with him than being unemployed, I'm convinced AI hitting the scene had a bit to do with it. They were an older dev 50+.

colesantiago 11 hours ago||
And AI will just shut out people just starting their careers

Too bad I guess.

ph4rsikal 7 hours ago||
Tech jobs are up, just not in the US. I know personally 2 people who got hired without an interview to fill two open roles.

https://muneebdev.com/software-development-job-market-india-...

koito17 6 hours ago||
I wonder how the figures look for countries outside of the United States.

For what its worth, I ended up getting a tech job in Japan instead. Ironically, the requirements at U.S. startups are much higher, and U.S. startups fit the stereotype of Japanese work culture more than Japanese companies nowadays.

saxenaabhi 1 hour ago|
I did this search a month ago on Linkedin. Show number of jobs if you search for "Software Engineer".

    US: 77,000
    European Economic Area: 58,000
    India: 51,000
    China: 48,000(probably undercounted)
    UK: 9,000
    Canada: 7,000
    Brazil: 6,000
    Mexico: 4,000
    Aus & NZ: 2,000
    Eastern Africa: 300
    Western Africa: 500
    Southern Africa: 600
    Northern Africa: 1,000

    Within europe:
    Nordics: 3,000
    Germany: 15,000
    France: 8,000
    Italy: 3,000
    Poland: 5,000
    Romania: 2,000
overgard 13 hours ago||
I know people will say AI, but I don't think it's that. The whole "everyone should learn to code" bullshit of the last 15 years or so has created a lot of developers that frankly aren't very good, and then you mix in the massive overhiring of the pandemic, and what you're seeing is a hard correction. CEOs love to use "productivity improvements from AI" as a smokescreen and investor catnip but the research shows it's not having the effects claimed.
tracerbulletx 13 hours ago|
Blaming the employees is BS. A pretty large % of the people losing their jobs are also high performing excellent people. I feel like anyone who worked at one of these companies doing lay offs knows this.
overgard 13 hours ago|||
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that the people that got laid off were the ones that deserved it. Obviously politics, situational factors (wanting people back in the office), etc are a huge part (I myself am recently laid off and I don't think I deserved it!) What I was trying to drive at is developers have lost a lot of leverage and negotiation because there are too many people fighting for too few roles. Also I can't help but wonder if people have lost trust in developers because of the dilution of talent.

That being said, I don't think it's unfair to point out that creating a massive influx of new developers without jobs that provided good mentorship (most jobs are awful at mentoring junior developers) is going to have huge consequences that we're now dealing with. I think the "learn to code" thing was a massive mistake. Encourage the people that want to, sure, but don't try to pull people in that are only marginally interested in a paycheck.

stanleykm 13 hours ago||||
The layoffs are not necessarily executed in a way that takes performance into account, but that doesn’t mean that the industry overall doesn’t have too many people for the amount of work that needs to be done.
tracerbulletx 13 hours ago|||
Its only the part about casting any aspersions at the people laid off for being low performance that bothers me because I know so many incredible people for whom they absolutely did not deserve it and its not fair to assume anything about their value or quality of their work specifically.
bayarearefugee 13 hours ago||||
> that doesn’t mean that the industry overall doesn’t have too many people for the amount of work that needs to be done.

Not that I disagree with you here, but it is hard to square this with people who are also saying not to worry about AI displacement because there's limitless demand for software.

bluefirebrand 11 hours ago||
> it is hard to square this with people who are also saying not to worry about AI displacement because there's limitless demand for software.

Well, that's easy to square: the idea that there is limitless demand for software is nonsense. Pure fiction

johnnyanmac 13 hours ago|||
Depends on the industry and product, as usual. On an large level, I do not think there's "too many engineers and not enough problems to be solved". Companies are simply hunkering down for a recession we can't say out loud.
bluecheese452 8 hours ago|||
Also wtf were we supposed to do? I graduated during the great recession. No one was hiring. Everyone from the president on down told us to learn to code. So we did.
Oras 14 hours ago||
Tech hiring is bad, for sure, but the the graph does not make a clear picture.

What is software publishers category? As it seems it’s picking up while Computer system design is the largest negative impact.

I would appreciate if there was a better chart explaining sort of roles and locations that had the largest impact

manoDev 4 hours ago|
I believe it would be interesting to compare to graduates / etc. in the same timeframe.
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