Top
Best
New

Posted by enraged_camel 18 hours ago

Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions(twitter.com)
https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3mg...

891 points | 593 commentspage 6
kittikitti 17 hours ago|
Although the graph lists BLS data as the source, it's hard for me to find the specific datasets that back it up. It's March 2026 and the graph indicates it would encapsulate 2025. In fact, the "Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States" indicate something different, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1T60O

I was able to find the following:

- Software Publishers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051320001

  - Regional data available only, numerous national statistics are discontinued

  - California region matches up, but places like Boston don't https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU25000005051320001

- Computing Infrastructure Providers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051800001

  - Matches up perfectly, no notes here.

- Computer Systems Design https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001

  - However, the graph in the tweet doesn't include the February data (even though it claims "recent") which shows an increase

- Web Search Portals https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051900001

  - Matches up, but February data isn't in the graph which shows an increase from January

- Streaming Services https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051620001

  - Doesn't include January or February 2026 data, doesn't match up with graph in tweet
I wasn't able to find the following: - Custom Computer Programming Services

There are numerous open questions in this analysis which I would need to be addressed before drawing any conclusions. My gut feeling would love to accept it at face value but I never trust my gut.

commandlinefan 14 hours ago||
I've had my suspicions - this seems way worse than anything I remember before. I think right now is worse than the 2000 dot-com bust, too.
dasil003 14 hours ago||
The graph does a really poor job supporting the conclusion, most obviously because it only goes back to 2016, the peak of boom times, it doesn't go anywhere near 2008 so why does the caption talk about that? Just this same graph alone going back to 1990 would be super eye-opening.

The other thing is it's showing first derivative, not absolute numbers, which is a very questionable way to derive "worst employment situation" in a field that has been on world-changing boom over the last 50 years.

stemlord 13 hours ago|
Theres a zoomed out version immediately below that tweet.

https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/2029916369056079975

dasil003 12 hours ago||
Ah, I can't see that because I'm not logged into Twitter. Doesn't quite pack the same punch does it?
shagie 11 hours ago||
https://imgur.com/a/kB9CAKF via Imgur (though you get resizing - its bigger on my screen)

The question that I have for this data though is that its showing the derivative - the change each year in hiring.

The dot com crash is clear and very visible in there. The global financial crisis is also a dip in there (I'm saving this for when people claim the number of jobs lost compared to the dot com crash).

From 2010 to 2020, there was a fairly steady linear growth of employment. There was the dip in 2020, but 2020 to 2024 had a much higher peak. My "I want to know about the data" is "is the area above +150k jobs from 2020 to 2024 greater than the area below 0 from 2024 to 2026?"

Trasmatta 17 hours ago||
Purely anecdotal, but I'm a senior engineer with about 15 years of experience and a decently impressive resume. In the past, I almost always get to at least the interviewing stage, and have frequently received multiple offers at the same time. Recruiters used to spam me constantly.

I haven't heard from a recruiter in probably 6 months. I recently put my feelers out and applied to a handful of positions I was qualified for, and got rejection letters from all of them.

Joel_Mckay 16 hours ago|
Try only including your last 2 positions, as most senior staff tend to scare insecure brogrammers. They probably still won't hire, but you will get more interviews.

There are also a lot of people posting fake jobs for feeding LLM datasets, running scams, and bidding down labor costs. =3

stokemoney 16 hours ago||
There are different types of engineers, those who don't engage with product and have soft skills will feel the burn
benbojangles 13 hours ago||
I don't really agree, i am making more money now than ever.
nphardon 17 hours ago||
Seems like my co is shedding US jobs and moving them to Taiwan, and paying up to 75% less in salary.
reenorap 13 hours ago||
2008 wasn't that bad for tech and neither was 2020. 2020 in fact lead to the highest employment craziness in the tech field ever. It's no wonder that the entire industry has indigestion from so many workers hired.
righthand 15 hours ago||
Did we ever leave the 2020 recession?
eunos 14 hours ago|
After reading many anecdotes of top school alumni struggling to even secure some interviews, I'm really curious about what opportunities available for median American freshgrads e.g. 3.0 GPA from T100-200 Unis.
More comments...