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Posted by enraged_camel 22 hours ago

Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions(twitter.com)
https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3mg...

951 points | 631 commentspage 9
stego-tech 21 hours ago|
It's bad, yeah, especially for folks on the job market (it me). Some statistics first, from my own job search logs:

* Since I hit the pavement in late January, I've tracked 100 job applications

* Of those 100, only 7 have turned into interviews

* Of those seven interviews, 3 turned into second-round

* ~50% of all applications never receive a response

* ~20% of rejections for any reason have the role re-posted within thirty days

* For rejections stating "higher quality applications", that role re-post rate is closer to 50%, suggesting ATS systems culling too many candidates to fill the role or ghost jobs

* Despite my state requiring salary requirements be posted in the JD, only around 70% of postings included what could be considered "reasonable" estimates

* 100% of interviews have been for local employers requiring 3+ days on-site

And now, some observations not captured in the data directly:

* Employers are trying to "under-title" folks; Senior roles want to hire former Leads, and Management roles want next-rung candidates for prior-rung titles (e.g., hiring what should be a Senior Manager for an entry-level management role)

* Employers are also trying to underpay workers by a large margin, especially folks coming from Big Tech ("We don't pay {SV_FIRM} money" while offering salaries below the local 50%ile for the role in question); they're blaming a "surplus of tech talent", which may or may not be true (I lack the data to prove either way)

* The two above points are in conflict, because rent/mortgages in these areas are so steep that even with major lifestyle changes to cut costs, these wages simply aren't survivable for local areas

* "Credential Creep" is back in force: Architect certs required for mid-level engineering roles, buzzwords prioritized over outcomes and achievements, and AI ATS' rejecting qualified candidates flat-out

* College Degrees are relevant again as a means of pruning candidates; fifteen years of experience is irrelevant for a lot of Senior roles if you don't have a BS or Masters, which wasn't the case even last year

* Industry-specialization is also back, even for roles where industry specialization is generally moot or easily picked up (e.g., Corporate IT stuff)

* A significant number (~75-85%) of roles explicitly reject H1B and other visa workers; not a problem for me (Citizen), but this is the worst possible time to be job hunting on a non-LPR status.

And now, my personal experiences:

* There's a very strong attitude of "you're being entitled" when it comes down to salary negotiations, even when you show your math for essentials - and share prior compensation history reflecting the cuts you've already taken since your Big Tech salary to "rejoin the market".

* Employers generally have no clue how expensive it is to live right now, especially in major metros; one such employer who balked at my comp floor genuinely had no clue the median rent was three and a half grand per month.

* Compensation seems particularly tilted towards working couples; as in, neither alone makes enough to survive, and employers assume you have a FTE spouse to shore up finances so they can pay you less

* Employers also don't seem to know what they actually want or need. Specialist Engineer roles (e.g., Cloud Engineer, Network Engineer) cite required experience and expertise with the full technology stack inclusive of ERP and HRIS nowadays, which is something that used to be handled by a specific team for the entirety of my career thus far, even in smaller (<1k) orgs. I've also seen Architect roles demanding Help Desk work, and Software Dev roles who want experience supporting Entra.

* AI does not feature in as many interviews as I would've thought. The few times it does, it's very much a "that's nice, but we're taking a wait and see approach" attitude

* There's a lot of eagerness to hire domestically again (I think even middle managers were tired of outsourcing or offshoring), but a lack of budget to afford domestic talent.

Ultimately, it's pretty bleak - but still better than last year, at least thus far (~300 apps, ~2 companies interviewed with, 1 offer in 2025). AI isn't the value-add I was sold on by career counselors and LinkedIn (huge surprise there /s), and there definitely seems to be the appetite to hire, but not the realism of what to expect or how much it'll cost. I very much view it as a sort of tug-of-war at the moment, between workers who did everything expected of them and have cut to the bone already, and employers who somehow think they can pay <50%ile wages while mandating 4-days on-site in a major metro for experienced talent.

If you're an employer looking to hire, I have some advice:

* Ditch the AI ATS or AI summaries and read resumes, especially if you're requiring local presence.

* Understand what you need (and what that will cost you) before posting the JD

* Understand the local cost of living, and budget accordingly (i.e., if your Senior Engineer can't afford median rent, they're not going to stick around when things improve)

* If you value loyalty and aren't paying TC to afford a median home in the area, then you don't actually value loyalty

* Don't pigeonhole yourself with hyper-specific candidates as a means of winnowing down applicants; that level of specialization will flee the second they get a better offer elsewhere

* Post salaries in the JD, required or not, so you don't waste your time with candidates whose expectations don't align with your budget

overgard 17 hours ago||
I'm early in my search, but compensation seems all over the place. From the recruiters I've talked to they've been pretty baffled too about compensation given the market. I know one place a recruiter called me about was looking for absolute unicorn talent (like 15 years of experience in multiple very different domains), but their salary was like 70k less than I made at my previous job and when I asked about titles they said it was "flat" and everyone was just a "software dev".

I don't want to sound like it's all a horror show though, I've had some interviews that have gone well with companies being sensible, so I think there's good stuff out there. But it's overall a rough market.

stego-tech 11 hours ago||
There is a definite compensation mismatch in the market between what workers need to survive, and what employers are willing to pay. You’re not alone in seeing this, even if it’s not widely reported yet.

Hang in there, you got this.

jdwithit 19 hours ago||
I'm also looking right now and a lot of that resonates with me. The posted salary ranges are often a complete joke as you noted. "The pay band for this role is $80,000-250,000 commensurate with experience and interview performance". Yeah OK buddy are you seriously trying to tell me you have multiple people with the exact same job title making salaries over $100k apart? Feels like they're just giving the finger to lawmakers through malicious compliance.

I've also run into the industry specialization roadblock a few times. Got turned down by a fintech company after multiple interview rounds because I did not have banking industry experience, for example. I guess I get it as a tie breaker but I've operated in a PCI compliant environment for years, seems like that should count as relevant experience? Also if you're going to dumpster candidates without banking experience why on earth did you waste several hours of your staff's time giving me tech screens?

Job hunting has always sucked. But it feels particularly busted at the moment. The process is miserable. If you've coasted to an easy hiring in the last year, you're either amazing (and hats off to you!) or got very lucky.

stego-tech 18 hours ago||
The salary ranges are complete jokes on either end: they're either malicious compliance like you pointed out, or completely out of touch with reality.

My example of that was when I applied for an Architect role (as I'm at that point in my upward career trajectory), and they asked me instead to apply for a Senior Admin role as they "didn't know what the Architect role would look like yet". I did, I included my comp target, and got the hard sell on why I was being unreasonable and should take {2016_PAY}/{$100k below SV_FIRM} instead. I mentioned my absolute floor was {$75k lower than SV_FIRM}/{$25k lower than my target}, ran him through my math (median rent for the area, on-site expectations, commute costs, food costs, insurance costs, 50/30/20 budgeting, etc), and pointed out that floor would only cover needs (50) and savings (20) with no fun money (30) whatsoever. Ultimately I withdrew my name entirely because the guy just wouldn't listen to me, and all but demanded I be grateful for his number in the current economy.

I suspect something similar is going on with another company that's seemingly ghosted me, after I stated I was targeting their upper boundary of their listed comp range - still $85k below {SV_FIRM}, but with growth potential towards Architect and Director-type IT roles. Even when I'm fine eating huge pay cuts for work (and falling off the homebuying ladder, as not even {SV_FIRM} paid house-purchasing money), the employers out there really do want perfect diamonds for the cost of Halloween Trinkets.

> Also if you're going to dumpster candidates without banking experience why on earth did you waste several hours of your staff's time giving me tech screens?

This is also something that's grinding my gears. Had an investment firm put me through six technical interviews with glowing recommendations every step of the way only for the seventh round (CIO) to put the kibosh on it without a reason and after showing up unprepared and disinterested. Also had companies say I lack financial discipline experience when I've literally built models, showback systems, budget forecasts, and cemented six-figures of monthly savings in prior roles; same with companies saying I "lack compliance experience" despite calling out running infra in highly regulated environments, performing compliance audits for clients, and uplifting infra to satisfy compliance regimes.

If I didn't know better, I'd say the entire HR process is just feeding shit into chatbots and letting them make hiring decisions. Nobody seems to actually care about the humans involved or the wider systems at play.

It's immensely frustrating, but I can only keep on keeping on until something changes. I don't need to win every application, I just need to win one.

d--b 17 hours ago||
This is YoY change. It's impossible to read. And it only goes back to 2016.
shagie 16 hours ago|
There's another post for it that went back to the early 90s. I've grabbed it at https://imgur.com/a/kB9CAKF though it's a smaller image (Imgur resizing).
globular-toast 20 hours ago||
What are people's plan Bs for when it goes tits up? I reckon I'd make a good electrician or something like that, but it's a real, grown up profession and I would have to get qualified.
cosmicgadget 20 hours ago||
Why don't those developers just learn to mine coal?
oceanplexian 18 hours ago|||
Repairing classic cars.

We could arrive at the technical singularity and come up with 8000 IQ robots that can do things in a clean room but in the messy physical reality? I believe they will fail to catch up forever.

They will fail to deal with a stripped bolt head deep inside an engine bay that's been exposed to 40 years of road salt, that needs to be hit right with a 10lb hammer and a home made chisel until shit knocks loose, combined with cutting, welding, drilling, torching, tapping, impromptu redneck engineering, cursing, the use of 8 different kinds of penetrating lubricants, the acquisition of weird and highly model-year specific parts in a junkyard 500 miles away, realizing it's all wrong and doing it again.

Multiply the complexity by 100 times and that's what it's like to take on a classic car project.

beastman82 20 hours ago|||
I think that's a very good plan FWIW. I'm going to consider cabinetry which I predict will be a semi-retirement in terms of income
Maximus9000 19 hours ago|||
That's funny, I'm also thinking about Electrician.
johnnyanmac 20 hours ago||
Games are a weird sector. Long term I simply want to go it indie. Even if I doesn't pan out, it's some kind of passive income and I have something to show to that is fully "mine" (so no ambiguity about how much I really contributed at BigCo.).

Short term I'm freelancing and doing whatever else I can find to get by. Hoping for one more full time role before I start my self published ventures.

rvz 21 hours ago||
Yet, no-one here is talking about building a start up. Which is the actual answer.
overgard 21 hours ago|
I'm an outsider, but VC looks like it's in a bad place right now. The returns have been pretty bad this decade, and AI companies are eating all the dollars so if you're not doing that it strikes me it'd be hard to get funding. And idk, if you already have an AI startup then you're hoping for the best, but if you were starting a business today I think that bubble looks like it has a lot of needles around it
alephnerd 21 hours ago||
As I previously mentioned, based on person experience assumptions around hiring have changed due to the Twitter layoffs, demands for FCF positivity, and WFH inadvertently justifying offshoring [0], not necessarily due to interest rate changes.

---

As I also mentioned, the only way you can survive in American tech at this point is to:

1. Move to a Tier 1 tech hub like the Bay and NYC. If you get laid off, you will probably find another job in a couple of weeks due to the density of employers. Seattle used to be a good option, but WA's norms around noncompete clauses incentivize larger employers which reduces the ability for startups to truly scale.

2. Start coming into the office 2-3 days a week. It's harder to layoff someone you have had beers or coffee with. Worst case, they can refer you to their friends companies if you get laid off

3. Upskill technically. Learn the fundamentals of AI/ML and MLOPs. Agents are basically a semi-nondeterministic SaaS. Understanding how AI/ML works and understanding their benefits and pitfalls make you a much more valuable hire.

4. Upskill professionally. We're not hiring code monkeys for $200K-400K TC. We want Engineers who can communicate business problems into technical requirements. This means also understanding the industry your company is in, how to manage up to leadership, and what are the revenue drivers and cost centers of your employer. Learn how to make a business case for technical issues. If you cannot communicate why refactoring your codebase from Python to Golang would positively impact topline metrics, no one will prioritize it.

5. Live lean, save for a rainy day, and keep your family and friends close. If you're not in a financial position to say "f##k you" you will get f##ked, and strong relationships help you build the support system you need for independence. The reality is the current set of layoffs and work stresses were the norm in the tech industry until 2015-22. We live in a competitive world and complaining on HN does nothing to help your material condition.

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561

pm90 21 hours ago|
I don’t believe this is true. There are plenty of roles that are happy to hire remotely. Sure, there is an in person requirement for many job listings but Ive found EMs/companies to be very flexible if they need to hire talent.

For people that can’t/dont want to move to the “hubs”, just know that there is absolutely still a career path. I will say though that you need to have above average communication skills and proactively build relationships during in person off-sites.

bobanrocky 20 hours ago|||
Nope, the number of remote roles are drastically reducing. If your are a sw dev/mgr, you’ll need to be at least hybrid to your company’s ‘tech center’
alephnerd 21 hours ago|||
There absolutely are remote first roles in the US, but the competition is also extremely intense. The median SWE and HNer wouldn't make the cut.

It also requires a level of maturity, clear thinking, self-starterness, and independence that is hard to come by without a proven track record and experience.

My advice is for the median/average SWE and HNer, not for the truly exceptional.

Spending a 7-10 years in a hub and then going remote first is the best path because you build the network you need to get referrals to vouch for you as a remote-first hire well as the track record needed to go remote-first.

pm90 13 hours ago||
7-10 years is too much. 2-4 is around the range I would give.

Its also nothing new; new grads gravitated towards these hubs anyway. Previously, they would settle down in the burbs. Now they're migrating anywhere in the US.

alephnerd 13 hours ago||
2-4 is too little - not enough time to show value nor build an entrenched network that can refer you long term.
joelhammer 17 hours ago||
Wait until all that AI generated code hits production on safety devices and they need to explain it in court.
joelhammer 17 hours ago||
Wait until the fallout of all that AI code hitting produciton
jlhawn 20 hours ago||
Here's the same post on Bluesky for those who prefer that platform: https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3mg...
schmichael 19 hours ago|
Thank you! Could HN switch the links? bsky doesn't require a login to view replies. bsky is just a superior viewing experience.
squidlogic 18 hours ago|||
If viewing replies is the goal, it looks like bsky has 2 replies and the twitter link has 45 replies. Do with that information what you will.
addandsubtract 5 hours ago|||
twitter shows 0 replies if you're not logged in.
rmm78 16 hours ago|||
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boca_honey 18 hours ago||||
I don't know if switching from a extreme partisan site to another extreme partisan site is the right solution just because of the need of login credentials. In any case, Twitter/X has been online almost 20 years. Bluesky still has to prove its staying power long term.
dasil003 18 hours ago|||
The justification of better UX seems reasonable regardless of politics. I'd prefer not to have to log in on any HN link, and I also can't say I want to optimize for link health as this is super topical and I will never want to look at it again after this discussion is over.
greggoB 18 hours ago|||
This reply makes zero sense to me.

1. You start off by labelling both platforms as "extreme partisan" - care to explain? 2. This charge is used to minimize the original complaint (login requirement), which is a hard blocker to view replies, i.e. additional context. 3. This all then somehow morphs into a point about platform longevity?

How exactly does any of this address parent commenter's statement that "bsky is just a superior viewing experience."?

boca_honey 18 hours ago||
You're right, I went off-topic for no good reason. I was just reacting to my personal bias against Bluesky and its stereotypical user and content.

Too late to edit / delete my post but I retract it and apologize.

snackerblues 11 hours ago||||
You can easily make an account or replace x in the url with xcancel. You can do the latter automatically with https://github.com/einaregilsson/Redirector
davidw 19 hours ago|||
[flagged]
0x3f 18 hours ago||
Is this relevant to the question of whether we should replace the link? Seems like we're going to spend a lot of time running down the views of the UBO of every domain posted here.
davidw 17 hours ago||
[flagged]
rmm78 16 hours ago||
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stackedinserter 21 hours ago||
Are there real positions these days?

I get rejection for every single position that I apply to. Often I read literally a description of myself in job posting, and it's still "we decided to no move forward".

At the same time, I hire people and see that 8/10 candidates are just trash. Not in the sense they "are not aligned", or "emit wrong vibes", or other bs. They literally can't write a single line of code, on their own laptop, in their own IDE.

Make it make sense.

charlieyu1 5 hours ago||
A lot of fake positions. It is not even from the company, just recruiters recycling old job postings. I know it is fake because I’m in the company and the project is long dead.
cyberpunk 20 hours ago||
It’s bananas how many utterly crap candidates we get at the moment too.

One low point was an interview with a guy who connected with his current work laptop and couldn’t find the $ key on it for a basic scripting question.

I can’t make it make sense either.

irl_zebra 16 hours ago|||
Because the hoards of people who can't find the ` or | or $ on their keyboard outnumber competent people 100:1. I had this exact experience too, so frustrating. Moved to a strictly referral model where I pay my SWEs $10k if a candidate they refer gets hired.
dlivingston 17 hours ago||||
We had a guy interview for a senior C++ position that hadn't used Git before and had no idea what a "merge" was.
jeffbee 14 hours ago||
A person who only has real industry experience can very easily have never needed git at all. I know this shocks people who only have hobby or startup experience but git works very poorly at large scale and there are many big organizations who don't use it either because their solutions predate git, or they are newer companies that simply have good taste.
cyberpunk 5 hours ago||
I’ve been in dev since CVS was a thing and did migrations across all of them really, svn, mg and finally git. I’ve worked in a broad swathe of industries and never once over 25 years have I ever seen an org not using source code management.

I just don’t believe this at all.

jeffbee 1 hour ago||
I think you misread what I said.
charlieyu1 5 hours ago|||
It is almost like the current system favours cheaters spamming fake CVs while most real people do have imperfections (eg gaps in employment)
Drunkfoowl 15 hours ago|
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