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Posted by Tomte 3 hours ago

Why New Zealand is seeing an exodus of over-30s(www.cnn.com)
35 points | 54 comments
roenxi 1 hour ago|
Bit of a tease, they don't explain why New Zealand are seeing an exodus in over-30s. I suspect there is an elephant in the room here that isn't being discussed. Particularly in that age range I doubt people are getting a sudden urge to adventure and excitement that they didn't feel in their 20s.

These articles like to throw out random economic statistics as though they have explanatory power, but they really don't. What exactly are the policies at play here?

> “Our wages are similar in Australia and employment law means longer probation periods, but the pros definitely outweigh the cons”

It is just a minor point, but really. If a country has an employment problem, short probation periods are a terrible idea. To get employers to employ people the easiest strategy is to make it easy and safe for them to employ people. Let them hire and fire at will. What is it with people and this instinct to immediately make life harder for the only person willing to offer someone a job. If people are leaving the island and a contributing factor is they don't have jobs, make it easy to give them a job. Don't make it harder then do this mild surprise routine when they move somewhere where people can actually employ them.

guidedlight 1 hour ago||
In 2023, the Australian government announced a direct pathway to citizenship for New Zealander citizens who live in Australia for four years.

I think that’s a pretty big incentive to move from New Zealand to Australia.

consp 1 hour ago|||
I always find it interesting employers only look at the short term benefits. Generally employment safety laws dampen income rise over time so for an employer it is cheaper to hold on to someone than hire a new, which also lessens knowledge loss.
thewhitetulip 1 hour ago|||
> Let them hire and fire people at will

India is facing a weird problem. Everyone keeps increasing the notice period. Unlike the US where you can quit on the spot, Indian firms, almost all, have a 90 day notice period.

But they rarely give offer letters to anyone who isn't already on notice period.

So becomes the vicious cycle. Be on NP to get an offer letter. But who will risk resigning before getting an offer

And then HRs as stupid questions like "you already have an offer why are you still looking for a change" while having zero self awareness that they are contributing to the cycle.

If everyone made NP to be 15 days or 20 days then people will not get time to attend 100 interviews

Moral of the story: nobody wants to take meaningful decisions. Everything thinks exclusively of the short term

vasco 1 hour ago|||
For the same reason governments put price controls in place during catastrophes. Because they never studied enough or believe their voters never studied enough to understand basic economics. Likely the latter. Governments believing their people too stupid to understand the right move is often the reason for implementing dumb measures.
throwawaysleep 1 hour ago||
A lot of it is that people get far more angry at price gouging than a shortage.
vasco 1 hour ago||
Yes, because they don't understand economics. It's a classic "sounds bad but is actually the fastest way to solve the problem" situation. So we kill people by delaying more resources in order to keep the optics nice.
sandworm101 1 hour ago||
>> let them hire and fire at will.

New Zealand is not silicon valley. Two things: tourism and agriculture. These are seasonal industries. New Zealand might not want to deal with thousands of companies hiring staff for only a season, or using visiting backpackers to cheaply cover jobs that should go to locals. And they probably dont want to hear about import temp labor from asia.

I remember visiting Whistler BC a few years back during the ski season. All the hotel staff seemed to be auzzi or kiwi. The actual locals couldnt find proper jobs with so many backpackers willing to live communally for a few months and then disappear. While certainly a boon for local businesses, the people who actually vote on stuff were not happy. (Canada is too big and diverse to change its labor laws for this issue. New Zealand is not.)

freefaler 25 minutes ago||
With NZ cost of living if you factor in higher labor costs it will make everything even more expensive relative to income. Cheap temporary labor is great not only for the companies, it's good for the consumers too, bringing prices down and availability up. The backpacker is in and out, dosen't need medical care, social security and other services.

Many of the jobs that are low paid backpacker frendly, the locals aren't to keen to do. If you don't have them there, many busineses will close down, because margins can't support 100% local staff.

freefaler 28 minutes ago||
It's mostly a no-brainer. Cost of living is higher than AU and wages are lower. Across the Tasman sea the market is 5 times bigger with real earning power around +30%. (but the weather is much more hot and from Brisbane up to the south the fauna tries to eat/sting/kill/bite you).

Housing in Australia is still one of the worst thing about the country, but in NZ is not much better, may be even worse. So New Zealand will become like Switzerland of the Oceania. It's the most beautiful country in the world and the Southern Island is a magical place.

Also, now it's less than 50% white, so it is a very diverse place, especially bigger cities like Auckland and Wellington. So in the bigger cities you can find a lot of good international food and culture too.

I think from a HN prespective if you have an internet business and don't mind the time zone difference and you're earining enough, NZ iz a fantastic place that is safe, clean, first world country, diverse and super beautiful, outdoor lover's paradise.

morepork 37 minutes ago||
This is not new, the article spins it as a big increase using a low during COVID as a baseline.

Alternative article with stats back to 2001: https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/137340/current-exod...

Note also that the population has grown around 30% since 2001, so the rate is probably lower than in the 2000s.

NZ is a small country, cities are small, it can be expensive, and the job market is relatively limited. For some it's made up for by the abundance of nature, the laid back attitudes, etc. but that's never going to be everyone's cup of tea.

DaedalusII 1 hour ago||
nz has no meaningful economy. they have a real estate market and agriculture which has maxed out its productivity, because they have completely run out of land. they have cheap, generally low quality colleges, and attract middle class/rich asians to live there for a few years and get a strong passport.

they also have a big problem with alcoholism and domestic violence, and an absurdly complicated tax system. 15% first nations and 15% asian immigrants, the 70% euro population is skewed elderly and contributes most of the tax receipts, and that includes a lot of brit retirees

the problem is they run the country like canada/norway/australia/alaska, except those places all have enormous resource exports that pay for the welfare state. nz just has milk farms

the median salary is less than USD $50k, and these people can get the EB3 greencard or just move to EU/ Australia

sam_bristow 1 hour ago||
I'll give you most of those criticisms, but I'm a little surprised you think our tax system is overly complicated. For the vast majority of people it's pretty much just a progressive PAYE income tax handled by your employer and a flat 15% GST/VAT on purchases without all the carve outs that seem common elsewhere.

Genuinely curious what I'm missing.

Marsymars 1 hour ago|||
Not sure how well that particular comparison to Canada holds; median salary in Canada is less than 40k USD.
FpUser 1 hour ago||
I just read about EB3 greencard. The processing times are enormous. Employers are simply not going to wait that long bar some exceptional cases
barrenko 1 hour ago||
NZ could have the similar issue as the "developed" countries of the EU (/ + UK) that seem to operate under a very mistaken belief that it's possible to stay "developed" without also being "developing" all the time.
ggm 2 hours ago||
In times past, Oz dislike of Kiwi property acquisition along the Gold Coast was possibly more pointed than the expected anti Japanese and anti Chinese racism. It doesn't do us any credit how quickly we fall back on these petty differences.

I do feel very sorry for people struggling in the NZ economy and I can see why making the jump works for them, but it's got strong qualities of "you don't know what you've got 'till it's gone" -yes, Australia is a bigger more resilient economy overall by comparison but things can go pear shaped here fast too.

I like NZ. I have family there. Some have made the jump back over here, some remain. I can believe I'd be happy there, and in that totally perverse outcome the Kiwi misfortune might mean more Australians my age moved over there, if inflation/deflation works out the right (wrong?) way. It's not likely right now, cost of living in NZ is a lot higher.

kinow 1 hour ago||
I think during the pandemic a lot of kiwis returned from overseas. Once it was over they slowly started migrating as the economy wasn't really good.

I did the same also to stay close to my wife's family for a few years before returning.

It is pretty common I'd say, not big news. And living here in Spain, apparently the exact same happens.

Young people normally study and work here. Many choose an Erasmus program or find job that pay 2 or 3 times more, especially in Germany, The Netherlands, Poland. We find it really difficult to hire good developers, especially seniors. Juniors are not too hard.

DeathArrow 57 minutes ago||
Most seem like hard working individuals aged 30+. So maybe the tax payers grew tired of the progressive taxes and subsidizing the welfare state and they seek places they think will be more fair to them.
richardfeynman 2 hours ago||
Kiwi here. This is not a new phenomenon. Not sure why this is news.
stevoski 1 hour ago||
I think this “story” started when The Economist did a filler article about it. The Economist article was based on some pretty weak understanding and knowledge of Kiwis and their culture of spending time abroad.

From there the usual YouTube “experts” started stories on it. You know the type - they sound authoritative but they are basically regurgitating stuff from Wikipedia (or some Economist article) with some pretty screens and clickbaity thumbnails.

Ultimately, there’s nothing behind this story. As has been the case since Pakehas arrived, lots of Kiwis go abroad and spend lots of time abroad, some go back, and some don’t, and meanwhile NZ’s population continues to grow.

The trends grow and shrink based on relative health of the Aus and NZ economies.

lostlogin 1 hour ago|||
Muldoon’s famous quote about New Zealanders moving to Australia comes to mind. It ‘raised the IQ of both countries’.

https://www.mercatornet.com/raising_the_iq_of_both_countries

shalmanese 2 hours ago|||
Typically, Kiwis would leave after graduating university or in their mid-20s. That Kiwis 30 - 50 are leaving now is a relatively recent phenomena (18 -> 43K in 4 years).
moogly 2 hours ago||
I am not a Kiwi and I didn't know this was a thing until I read this article.
ares623 2 hours ago|
It's a pretty brutal negative feedback loop. This video explains it quite well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBpgTgFF1ek

Even immigrants are just using New Zealand as a stepping-stone country to later move to Australia.

sefrost 2 hours ago|
It feels like people do this to Canada to get in to the USA as well.

Ireland->UK seems to be increasing as well because of the Common Travel Area.

I think a lot of historical agreements of this nature will not hold up in the era of mass international migration. The CTA is obviously a complex example.

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