See also: "Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47291406

Statistical clueless amateurs found something they did not like, but of course were unable to convert their suspicions into something sound. They do not even think about it. Nevertheless a big sensation was anounced. I am tired of this.

This presumes that the nation's security is bolstered by the government's ability to keep secrets. It strikes me that, even if this is true in some ways, the opposite is true in others.

It's 100% legal if you're in the inside circle

Pretty sure war thunder forums still take the cake on that one. The lulz motive is far higher than the profit motive.

I said this in another thread, but if you were to ask me "what is the biggest 180 you've made on some political or policy question in the last decade", it would for sure be prediction markets. I used to be all-in on the idea after reading Caplan, Taleb etc.: make people have "skin in the game" on a grand scale and we can have better predictions and better policy! But what a disaster they've been in practice: it's just a new avenue for government corruption and ruining your life with gambling. And now apparently a nat-sec problem as well.

Just another grift for orange man and his posse. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket...

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March.

Good thing that Polymarket gives such a good signal unlike such subtle clues as carrier group movements.

These are scraps, so far. Now, what could you do if you had access to both markets and the Executive? About 4 billions, it would seem.