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Posted by speckx 4 hours ago

AI coding is gambling(notes.visaint.space)
208 points | 231 commentspage 2
minimaxir 4 hours ago|
The gambling metaphor often applied to vibecoding implies that the outcome cannot be fully controlled or influenced, such as a slot machine. Opus 4.5 and beyond show that it not only can be very much can be influenced, but also it can give better results more consistently with the proper checks and balances.
Retr0id 4 hours ago||
Poker is a skill-based game where your actions influence your success, but many people who play it are gambling.
bensyverson 3 hours ago|||
And that's why poker is a poor metaphor for agentic coding.
deepfriedrice 3 hours ago||
It's the perfect metaphor? Playing correctly/optimally is +EV. But nobody starts there, and many people don't ever get there.

The main difference is that you're exploiting your own weaknesses, rather than others'. Limitations in typing speed, information gathering, pattern recognition.

bensyverson 3 hours ago||
In that case, couldn't you substitute painting, horseback riding or knitting? Nothing about poker has anything to do with agentic coding except "it's something you can learn."
deepfriedrice 2 hours ago||
In poker some people are gambling. Some may be self-ware, but many aren't and misunderstand why they win or lose. Poker inconsistently and unreliably rewards gambling, much like vibe-coding.
bigstrat2003 2 hours ago||||
Poker has elements of both luck and skill. The luck element + wagering money is what makes it gambling.
Retr0id 2 hours ago||
On a long enough timeframe, the luck averages out.
c_e 3 hours ago|||
everybody who's playing poker is gambling, skilled or not.
throwmeaway820 3 hours ago||
without a rigorous definition of "gambling", such discussions are pointless
jatins 3 hours ago|||
Yeah, I don't think the metaphor applies exactly but I definitely see similarities from my personal experience

1/ Dependency -- Once I got used to agentic coding, I almost always reached out to it even for small changes (e.g. update a yaml config)

2/ Addiction -- In the initial euphoria phase, many people experience not wanting to "waste" any time agent idle and they'd try to assign AI agents task before they go to sleep

3/ You trust your judgement less and less as agent takes over your code

4/ "Slot machine" behavior -- running multiple AI agents parallel on same task in hope of getting some valuable insight from either

5/ Psychosis -- We have all met crypto traders who'd tell you how your 9-5 is stupid and you could be making so much trading NFTs. Social media if full of similar anecodotes these days in regards to vibecoding with people boasting their Claude spend, LOC and what not

davidkhess 3 hours ago|||
One way it works is if you think of cognitive debt as the "house". As in "the house always wins".
ambicapter 3 hours ago|||
Slot machines have very controlled results. They are regulated to a high precision of reliability.
Terr_ 3 hours ago||
I don't think that difference matters to the comparison.

It's not an inherent feature to slot machines, it's something we enforce because people got angry about the outcomes (i.e. fraud) when they didn't operate that way.

It doesn't matter because a dodgy slot-machine is still a slot machine, and the person using it would still be a gambler.

Terr_ 3 hours ago|||
> The gambling metaphor often applied to vibecoding implies that the outcome

The important part of the not-really-a-metaphor is the relationship between user and machine, and how it affects the user's mind.

What the machine outputs on "wins" doesn't matter as much, addictive gambling can still happen even when the payouts are dumb.

reaperducer 3 hours ago||
it can give better results more consistently with the proper checks and balances.

You can get more consistent results from a slot machine with a bunch of magnets and some swift kicks. It's still gambling.

comboy 3 hours ago||
Fascinating how HN is torn about vibe coding still. Everybody pretty much agrees that it works for some use cases, yet there is a flamewar (I mean, cultured, HN-type one) every time. People seem to be more comfortable in a binary mindset.
hext 1 hour ago||
If you enjoy the flamewar, check out /r/SelfHosted which has been losing it's mind over the last few months. The heavy heavy majority of that community is somehow incredibly anti AI despite the fact that the previous "spammy" posts (before ai assisted projects) were all "what is wrong with my docker compose file"??
ApolloFortyNine 1 hour ago||
I had to unsub from that subreddit when I saw a cool new application and the top comments were just dogging it for the signs of Claude Code (claude.md).

This is a subreddit about selfhosting things others built for free. Honestly, often for piracy purposes. It's insane how entitled people have become.

hext 1 hour ago||
Absolutely. Really gross to see. Heavy majority of the complaints boil down to “I can’t blindly trust everything posted here now?” - as if they could before?? So entitled.

Also annoys me that all of the suggestions on how to handle filtering AI demonstrate a clear lack of understanding around how agentic coding works. Like if you can’t be bothered to understand why “ban any project that uses AI” is not possible, the entire subreddit is probably above your pay grade…

pgwhalen 3 hours ago|||
It’s just how discussion on the internet works, for basically anything at all worth discussing. It’s exhausting, but I can hardly blame HN specifically.
minimaxir 3 hours ago|||
> Everybody pretty much agrees that it works for some use cases

That isn't true, which is the exact reason why people have a binary mindset. More than once on Hacker News I've had people accuse me of being an AI booster just because I said I had success with agents and they did not.

mpalmer 1 hour ago|||
For my part at least, I get the most riled up against the binary thinkers!
szatkus 1 hour ago||
This. A lot of people on HN acts as you can only write code manually (almost, generators and snippets are allowed, because we are used to them) or vibe coding the whole project through a WhatsApp conversation. As if there was nothing in between and the same approach should work for all kinds of projects.

Personally I use coding agents for boring parts (I really don't enjoy putting the same piece of string to 20 different classes just to register a new component) and they work quite well, I'm going to use them for foreseeable future, because they make coding much more enjoyable for me. On the other hand I don't have an OpenClaw box burning billions of tokens weekly for me, because I usually don't have ideas that could be clearly specified.

zer00eyz 3 hours ago||
VIM vs Emacs vs IDE vs..., Tabs vs Spaces, Procedural vs OOP vs Functional.

We love a good holy war for sure.

The nuance is lost, and the conversations we should be having never happen (requirements, hiring/skills, developer experience).

some_random 4 hours ago||
How often do you have to win before it's no longer gambling?
operatingthetan 3 hours ago||
Exactly. It's not gambling if you win most of the time. This is like saying driving a car is gambling. I mean sure, I guess if you think any amount of risk equals gambling.
Retr0id 4 hours ago|||
I don't know where I'd draw the line personally, but wherever you draw it there's a problem. If you give increasingly more advanced tasks to it, you will eventually cross the line.
margalabargala 3 hours ago||
How is this any different from assigning increasingly more advanced tasks to an employee?
tonymet 3 hours ago||
we're winning so much we started complaining "I can't handle so much winning"
flaterkk 24 minutes ago||
Suffering from Success - Studio album by DJ Khaled ‧ 2013

Applies here? :D

mpalmer 2 hours ago||
I do not think "AI coding" - as distinct from the human who drives it - is gambling. More like a delayed footgun for the uneducated. I don't mean that disparagingly, but I do mean it literally.

    I’ve certainly been spending more time coding. But is it because it’s making me more efficient and smarter or is it because I’m just gambling on what I want to see? 
Is this really a difficult question to answer for oneself? If you can't tell if you're learning anything, or getting more confident describing what you want, I would suggest that you cannot be thinking that deeply about the code you're producing.

    Am I just pulling the lever until I reach jackpot?
And even then, will you know you've won?

At the very least, a gambler knows when they have hit jackpot. Here, you start off assuming you've won the jackpot every time, and maybe there'll be an unpleasant surprise down the line. Maybe that's still gambling, but it's pretty backwards.

cmiles8 3 hours ago||
It’s like any powerful tool. If you use it right it’s amazing. If you get careless or don’t watch it closely you’ll get hurt really badly.

Overall I’m a fan, but yes there are things to watch for. It doesn’t replace skilled humans but it does help skilled humans work faster if used right.

The labor replacement story is bullshit mostly, but that doesn’t mean it’s all bad.

jsLavaGoat 3 hours ago||
Everything is "fast, cheap, good--pick two." This is no different.
smlacy 3 hours ago|
I like the analogy but which 2 is AI coding?

Fast & Cheap (but not Good?) - I wouldn't really say that AI coding is "cheap"

Cheap & Good (but not Fast) - Again, not really "cheap"

Fast & Good (but not Cheap) - This seems like maybe where we're at? Is this a bad place?

flaterkk 22 minutes ago|||
It's hitting all three, right _now_.

Eventually, it will be just Fast and Good. It won't be cheap, as companies start moving towards profitability.

Remember when Uber was super cheap? I do. They're fast and good though.

ambicapter 3 hours ago||||
The proper idiom is "You can only pick two". It doesn't say that everything is two of them, or even one.
bigstrat2003 2 hours ago|||
It's not cheap or good, it's just fast.
jsLavaGoat 2 hours ago||
It's fast. It's cheap compared to employees. It's really the latter that people are upset about.

As for good. Well, how much software is really good? A lot of it is sewn together APIs and electron-like runtimes and 5,000 dependencies someone else wrote. Not exactly hand-crafted and artisanal.

I'm sure everyone here's projects are the exception, but engineering is always about meeting the design requirements. Either it does or it doesn't.

PaulHoule 3 hours ago||
I think somebody like Nate Silver might say “everything is gambling” if you really pressed them.

A big theme of software development for me has been finishing things other people couldn’t finish and the key to that is “control variance and the mean will take care of itself”

Alternately the junior dev thinks he has a mean of 5 min but the variance is really 5 weeks. The senior dev has mean of 5 hours and a variance of 5 hours.

simonw 4 hours ago||
Assigning work to an intern is gambling: they're inherently non-deterministic and it's a roll of the dice whether the work they do will be good enough or you'll have to give them feedback in order to get to what you need.
lunar_mycroft 3 hours ago||
1. Interns learn. LLMs only get better when a new model comes out, which will happen (or not) regardless of whether you use them now.

2. Who here thinks that having interns write all/almost all of your code and moving all your mid level and senior developers to exclusively reviewing their work and managing them is a good idea?

simonw 3 hours ago||
I don't know that the "humans learn, LLMs don't" argument holds any more with coding agents.

Coding agents look at existing text in the codebase before they act. If they previously used a pattern you dislike and you tell them how to do differently, the next time they run they'll see the new pattern and are much more likely to follow that example.

There are fancier ways of having them "learn" - self-updating CLAUDE.md files, taking notes in a notes/ folder etc - but just the code that they write (and can later read in future sessions) feels close-enough to "learning" to me that I don't think it makes sense to say they don't learn any more.

lunar_mycroft 2 hours ago|||
In some ways these methods are similar to the model "learning", but it's also fundamentally different than how models are trained and how humans learn. If a human actually learns something, they're retain that even if they no longer have access to what they learned it from. And LLM won't (unless trained by the labs not to, which is out of scope). If you stop giving it the instructions, it won't know how to do the thing you were "teaching" it to do any more.
bigstrat2003 2 hours ago|||
It is a matter of fact that LLMs cannot learn. Whether it is dressed up in slightly different packaging to trick you into thinking it learns does not make any difference to that fact.
simonw 2 hours ago||
Sure, LLMs can't learn. I'm saying that systems built around LLMs can simulate aspects of what we might call "learning".
sarchertech 3 hours ago|||
That’s very true. But interns aren’t supposed to be doing useful work. The purpose of interns is training interns and identifying people who might become useful at a later date.

I’ve never worked anywhere where the interns had net productivity on average.

simonw 3 hours ago||
Replace "intern" with "coworker" and my comment still holds.
sarchertech 2 hours ago||
It worked with interns because interns are temporary workers. It doesn’t work with coworkers because you get to know them over time, you can teach them over time, and you can pick which ones you work with to some degree.

To come up with an analogy that works at all for AI, it would have to be something like temporary workers who code fast, and read fast, but go home at the end of the day and never return.

You can make a lot of valuable software managing a team like that working on the subset of problems that the team is a good fit for. But I wouldn’t work there.

capitalsigma 1 hour ago|||
People don't write blog posts about how they wake up at 3AM to assign new tasks to their intern, nor do they build "orchestration frameworks" that involve N layers of interns passing tasks down between eachother
james2doyle 3 hours ago|||
The only similarity is that they both say "you’re absolutely right" when you point out their obvious mistakes
sidrag22 3 hours ago|||
exactly where my mind went as well. There aren't really levels to pulling a lever on a slot machine, other than the ability for each pull to result in more "plays" of the same potential outcome.

The reason i think this metaphor keeps popping up, is because of how easy it is to just hit a wall and constantly prompt "its not working please fix it" and sometimes that will actually result in a positive outcome. So you can choose to gamble very easily, and receive the gambling feedback very quickly unlike with an intern where the feedback loop is considerably delayed, and the delayed interns output might simply be them screaming that they don't understand.

throw4847285 3 hours ago|||
There are two major mistakes here.

The first is equating human and LLM intelligence. Note that I am not saying that humans are smarter than LLMs. But I do believe that LLMs represent an alien intelligence with a linguistic layer that obscures the differences. The thought processes are very different. At top AI firms, they have the equivalent of Asimov's Susan Calvin trying to understand how these programs think, because it does not resemble human cognition despite the similar outputs.

The second and more important is the feedback loop. What makes gambling gambling is you can smash that lever over and over again and immediately learn if you lost or got a jackpot. The slowness and imprecision of human communication creates a totally different dynamic.

To reiterate, I am not saying interns are superior to LLMs. I'm just saying they are fundamentally different.

And, if we're being honest, the way people talk about interns is weirdly dehumanizing, and the fact that they are always trotted out in these AI debates is depressing.

simonw 2 hours ago||
> And, if we're being honest, the way people talk about interns is weirdly dehumanizing, and the fact that they are always trotted out in these AI debates is depressing.

Yeah, I agree with that.

That thought crossed my mind as I was posting this comment, but I decided to go with it anyway because I think this is one of those cases where I think the comparison is genuinely useful.

We delegate work to humans all the time without thinking "this is gambling, these collaborators are unreliable and non-deterministic".

throw4847285 2 hours ago||
True. I think that's why my second point is much stronger. The main issue is not delegation, or human vs machine intelligence. It's the instant feedback.

Human collaboration has always been slow and messy. Large tech companies have always looked for ways to speed up the feedback loop, isolating small chunks of work to be delegated to contractors or offshore teams. LLMs have supercharged that. If you have a skilled prompter you can get to a solution of good enough quality by rapidly iterating, asking for output, correcting the prompt, etc.

That is good in that if you legitimately have good ideas and the block is execution speed. But if the real blocker is elsewhere, it might give you the illusion of progress.

I don't know. Everything is changing too fast to diagnose in real time. Let's check back in a year.

skepticATX 3 hours ago|||
You generally don’t assign work to an intern just for the output, though.
Fellshard 3 hours ago|||
An intern can be taught. If you try to 'teach' a craps table, they'll drag you out of the casino.
bluefirebrand 3 hours ago|||
Drawing parallels between AI and interns just shows you're a misanthrope

You should value assigning tasks to human interns more than AI because they are human

mathrawka 3 hours ago||
As someone who has worked with interns for year, expect feedback and reiterations always, be surprised if they get it the first time... which merits feedback as well!

But looks like the intern mafia is bombarding you with downvotes.

amw-zero 3 hours ago||
So is human coding.
7777332215 2 hours ago|
The problem with AI coding is that you no longer own the foundational tools.
rsoto2 2 hours ago|
What?? Surely once these companies have locked in their Claude workflows claude wouldn't somehow raise the price. Or steal inventions like Amazon does. Surely.
quikoa 1 hour ago||
Surely they aren't selling subscriptions at a loss to gain market share either.
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