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Posted by trocado 6 hours ago

Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts(www.theguardian.com)
163 points | 149 commentspage 3
ck2 5 hours ago|
There's no ceasefire, Iran has no idea what he is making up as always.

He's delaying until the Marines get there in a few days.

And until the markets close on Friday, notice how he said 5 days on Monday.

He's also bombed them the past two times in the middle of negotiations, why stop now

The man is a proven constant pathological liar since the day he came down the golden escalator 10 years ago, literally every time he speaks it's a lie.

fakedang 5 hours ago|
Iran already knows his bluff. Abbas Aragchi even explicitly mentioned this in an interview, stating that negotiating with the US is a pointless exercise, but it tells the Iranians whether Dump is planning a major strike. So there's definitely going to be a major strike happening by Friday or Saturday.

To end the war, Iran will demand a full withdrawal of US forces from all neighboring countries as well as a shut down of US bases. This will also have the added benefit of giving them full control of the strait when the US leaves, and a free hand to bombard Israel. The GCC are already fatigued from a war they had no say in, so if the Iranians strike the desal plants, they will either join the US offensive or they'll kick the American troops out.

jmyeet 5 hours ago||
There are lists of the worst decisions of the Supreme Court in history (eg [1]). Dred Scott [2] often tops such lists. I believe that Trump v. United States [3] will go on such lists in the near future. Why? Because it opened the floodgates on corruption on a scale we previously haven't seen. The president has absolute immunity. The president's communications with the Attorney-General can't even be examined, basically. And there was absolutely no constitutional basis for it. The Court established a King.

So the president has absolute immunity from any consequences. The president can pardon anyone in their orbit. Pardons are now being openly sold for personal profit [4].

All of this was completely foreseeable from giving someone absolute immunity.

Prediction markets make this much worse because they're even more unregulated. We certainly had corruption even in Trump's first term (eg Jared Kushner's Saudi "investment" [5]). This is the new normal.

[1]: https://www.findlaw.com/legalblogs/supreme-court/13-worst-su...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dred_Scott_v._Sandford

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States

[4]: https://www.cato.org/blog/embarrassment-riches

[5]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68296877

dylan604 4 hours ago||
> So the president has absolute immunity from any consequences.

That's not true. Congress still has the power to impeach with the a conviction in the Senate removing the sitting president. The problem is that both chambers of Congress are lead by sycophants of the president. All SCOTUS did was put an asterisk to the notion that "no man above the law". It's a big fat asterisk to be sure, but they gave themselves a little wiggle room.

pjc50 4 hours ago||
Republicans spent about 40 years stacking the court with partisans in order to overturn Roe v Wade, and got the corruption as a bonus.
foxglacier 4 hours ago||
It's not a sign of insider trading that several people created accounts "around the time" Trump suggested winding down the war. It could have been after he publicly said that. This article is just made up crap fueling the FUD about government secrets being leaked by predictions markets.
SilverElfin 5 hours ago||
Every single action taken under this administration has been either primarily for corrupt grifting or has been turned into that, to the benefit of the Trump family, their friends, and their donors. It’s ridiculous how open all of it is. And the people and companies benefiting from it are pretending like they’re not the bad guys.
duderific 3 hours ago|
In our current system, the only defenses against corruption:

- Standards and norms, which obviously the current administration doesn't give a rat's ass about

- Failing that, Congress has to step in and impeach and convict. This won't happen because the Republicans have completely rolled over

So, here we are.

SilverElfin 1 hour ago||
If there are no paths to retroactively investigating and clawing back every last penny, this just leads to taxpayers giving up paying taxes eventually. What’s the point of a fundamentally corrupt system just for the rich and connected?
aaron695 5 hours ago||
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Insanity 6 hours ago|
Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
a_ba 5 hours ago||
Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.
Insanity 5 hours ago||
No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.
croes 5 hours ago|||
Insiders don‘t and you’re ignoring the reasons why insider trading is suspected.

It’s not because they bet, because how and when they bet

gzread 5 hours ago|||
Yes, and they consistently lose money to insiders who vote based on actual knowledge.
munk-a 6 hours ago|||
I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.
nostromo 5 hours ago||
Insider trading makes prediction markets more accurate, not less.
munk-a 4 hours ago||
It also warps reality to adhere to the prediction markets. There was a famous rash of objects being thrown onto WNBA courts recently that was spurred on by the potential for financial gain.
mothballed 6 hours ago|||
A few major actors in predictions markets

(1) Recreational or addicted gamblers

(2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance

(3) Insiders

(4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc)

Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.

CaptainNegative 6 hours ago|||
There could also be some degree of "(5) bandwagon effect" players, who pump money into an outcome specifically to get people talking about its possibility, thereby increasing its probability of coming into fruition.
Insanity 6 hours ago||||
mh. Guess my view of betting is too naive. I wouldn't have expected anything beyond (1).

With my usual addictive behaviour, I think it's prob best I stay away from that though.. :)

cwillu 5 hours ago||
(1) provides an incentive for the rest to participate.
freejazz 5 hours ago|||
Can anyone point to any instance of anyone benefitting from the information conveyed in these prediction markets?
standardUser 5 hours ago||
There's an entire academic field called statistics you seem to be forgetting all about.