Top
Best
New

Posted by dryadin 4 days ago

VR Is Not Dead(yadin.com)
26 points | 52 commentspage 2
hn_throwaway_99 2 hours ago|
IMO this blog post can be summarized as "Even if nobody actually wants to use VR for extended periods, it's cool so it will be coming in the future eventually!!"

VR is the perfect metaphor IMO for how "the tech industry" at large has lost its way. It's no longer about using technology to solve long standing human problems, it's about how tech firms can find ways to insert themselves in the fabric of human existence so they can suck their rent indefinitely.

I actually think VR is very cool, and I thoroughly enjoy playing VR games like Beat Saber. But building a really fun (short term) gaming platform, or finding some dedicated VR use cases in specific environments like construction, was never going to be enough for big tech. They wouldn't be satisfied unless all of us had goggles strapped to our faces for 8+ hours a day. Everything Meta talked about made this clear - they only invested a ton of money because they saw it as the new "platform" after desktop and mobile that they could own and control. And it's obviously why AI is commanding so much investment now, as companies are scrambling to own the means of production in human society for years to come.

I agree that VR is not "dead", whatever that means, but I do find some joy that tech companies haven't found yet one more way to own the basics in societal existence.

dryadin 1 hour ago||
It is not about the technology being cool (although I think it is). It is about its being intimately linked to human psychology, philosophy, and culture. That makes it, in my view, a very human technology. It allows us, in theory, to break out of our physical environment, bodies, and limitations.
chii 2 hours ago||
wanting to own the platform first before the "killer application" became known is how they intend to keep extracting rent for said killer application when it appears.

Consumers need to be wary, and take steps to prevent such an outcome. Unfortunately, most consumers just simply dont know they're in a chess game with corporations they deal with, so don't see any setup moves as being threatening.

Animats 2 hours ago||
From the article: "The main theme in the Spanish Golden Age playwright Pedro Calderón de la Barca’s La Vida es Sueño (Life is a Dream) from 1635 is the contrast between subjective and objective perceptions of reality."

Huh? Is this AI slop?

The basic problems with VR are well known. First, the headgear is too bulky. Carmack, who headed Oculus for a while, says that it won't get traction until the headgear is down to swim-goggles size, and won't go mainstream until it's down to eyeglass size.[1] "AR glasses", with just an overlay, achieve that, but it's not a full virtual environment.

Second, a sizable fraction of the population experiences some nausea, and a smaller fraction will barf.[2] That's worse than roller coasters. When visual and vestibular data disagree, the brain doesn't like it. The most successful VR games, such as Beat Saber, keep them locked together, but then you're stuck in one spot. There's a really good discussion of this by Phia, a VR influencer who started using VR as a teenager and spends a lot of time in VR.[3] She has practical advice on tuning VR systems to minimize nausea (interocular distance matters!) and how to introduce new people to VR (it takes repeated exposures of increasing length.)

VR Chat continues to grow, driven by young people who worked through the problems. VR Chat used to prevent free movement - you had to teleport from one seat to another. But experienced users wanted more freedom, and VR chat now allows it if you opt in. Really good users can do gymnastics with full body tracking while in VR.

It's not just put on the goggles and have fun. You have to acclimate. Learn the gestures that drive the system. Practice. If you go for full body and face tracking, your avatar has to be calibrated to match your joint lengths and you have to strap on sensors. (Which are now good, small, and wireless.) You need a safe open space where you can move, where there are no dangerous objects nearby, and the VR system knows the real world safe boundaries. VR is a sport, and takes the preparation of a sport.

So it works, but is not mass-market.

[1] https://next.reality.news/news/oculus-cto-john-carmack-outli...

[2] https://www.pcgamer.com/vr-still-makes-40-70-of-players-want...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixdNKc53VZQ

dryadin 1 hour ago|
Just a quick note to say that it is not AI slop. That particular line is out of my PhD dissertation about the legal implications of VR, submitted over a decade ago. I'll take it as a compliment though, assuming you meant the piece is well researched.
beloch 1 hour ago||
VR surged (mainly in the form of VR cafes) in the late 90's, only to fall into obscurity, much like 3D film surged in the 50's, 80's, and 2010's before subsiding. VR now seems to be subsiding again (the number of new VR titles released on Steam has declined year-over-year for several years now). When will it return, and for how long?

3D film offers an added level of immersion, but the technology has had peaks of popularity interspersed with longer periods where it was very niche. Anaglyph 3D boomed in the 50's, but couldn't handle colour. Polarized 3D boomed in the 80's and could handle colour, but often at the expense of reduced brightness and resolution as well as increased prices. IMAX 3D soldiered on, but 3D was all but absent from mainstream movies until the 2010's, when active shutter 3D become popular alongside polarized 3D. Today, only the occasional movie is offered in 3D, and that's declining. Few cinema's are investing in new hardware for 3D projection.

The pattern repeated because 3D always added drawbacks and expense. Films were either made with it in mind (e.g. By deliberately shoving things into the viewer's face) or they just let it passively enhance things. The former made films gimmicky and limited their audience. The latter left it to audiences to choose whether 3D was worth the drawbacks. Audiences decided it wasn't time and again. A 2D window into another world was immersive enough. Studios keep coming back, roughly every three decades, because it seems like that's how long it takes audiences to start getting excited for the same gimmicks again.

VR is currently expensive, uncomfortable, isolating, and (for some) nausea inducing. Any one of these is worse than the sum total of modern 3D's drawbacks: You have to wear glasses, pay $5 extra, and hope the theatre's projector is bright enough. My bold prediction is that VR and 3D will both eventually succeed and stick (perhaps in the same package!), but only when the technologies are without significant drawbacks or extra expense. VR technology has made exciting progress since the 90's but, like 3D, it's not ready to stick yet.

The harsh reality is that, even if somebody were to make a quantum leap forward in VR technology tomorrow that solves all its major drawbacks, it would probably still be years or decades before audiences are willing to reconsider the opinion of VR they've formed over the last several years. People need to forget before they're willing to reevaluate.

j45 2 hours ago||
VR isn't dead. It's not alive either.

It's just not it's time yet for mass adoption, however it might be.

VR/AR continues to have an increasing footprint of usage and adoption as the technologies evolve.

This has been the same cycle for over 20 years.

Once we get past 4K displays to 8K at a reasonable cost level, it again will introduce a new audience to VR/AR, and a larger and larger existing audience will sit here nodding along.

VR has gotten much better and it's fine for whomever it works for, it doesn't have to work for everyone, even if a big company took a bet on the timing of it being now.

krapp 2 hours ago|
I don't think VR will ever reach mass adoption, I don't think there's any reason for it to. It isn't sufficiently superior to screens and keyboard/mouse or phones to warrant it. I liken the hype around VR to the hype around LLMs - it's good at some things, but not everything.
dyauspitr 2 hours ago||
I mean at some point, probably very soon over the next decade or so, we’re going to get to a point where AI is just going to generate extremely convincing virtual worlds on the fly. From what Google has been putting out these essentially immediately look exactly like real life and we will have sidestepped the whole “gradual graphical increases approaching reality” thing we’ve been doing for all these years. AI video right now is insane. It can generate 30 second videos that are completely lifelike. If they can manage to do that in three dimensions and you can walk around in it there’s no way VR is not going to takeoff.

You have guys right now spending $300 a month on Grok Imagine because it puts out extremely realistic soft porn. Imagine what that would be like in a virtual world, that is three-dimensional, looks exactly like real life, the VR headset is in your contact lenses and AI can generate compelling narratives on the fly.

googaar 3 hours ago|
VR is gonna be insane once hardware catches up. It’s the natural next frontier imo.
yakattak 3 hours ago||
This has been the sentiment for nearly a decade now.
marginalia_nu 2 hours ago||
Much longer. We had VR in the '60s.
ungreased0675 2 hours ago||
I think the current generation of VR hardware is pretty great.