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Posted by zdw 7 hours ago

China is mass-producing hypersonic missiles for $99,000(kdwalmsley.substack.com)
169 points | 127 commentspage 3
ck2 6 hours ago|
when China take Taiwan there's not a single thing the world is going to be able to do about it

they use thousands of fishing boats to practice blockades

they are building massive oil reserves and getting most of population into electric vehicles

let's just hope they wait to next decade and not like 2028

epistasis 5 hours ago||
Attacking and occupying a distant island in this age is getting more difficult, not easier. Look at the Black Sea, where Russia's remaining ships cower in fear in port, as they try to avoid super cheap marine drones. Massive missile attacks on a country can only do so much damage, and they harden the population against the aggressor.

If Taiwan has been paying attention, and I don't doubt they are in an age when it's becoming clear the US is a paper tiger that will never protect them, they are well prepared to handle a good chunk of their own defense, using the brain trust they have inside their nation. They have everything they need for their own defense now.

bluGill 4 hours ago||
Tiawan politics is interesting. from what I can tell those in power a an alliance of those who want China to take over with those who don't think China will try because they are friends. The president is worried but his party doesn't have power.
yogibear678142 5 hours ago||
People thought the same on Iran, untouchable. China has the same air defense and tech as Iran, not effective in real world situations.

Blockades go both ways. China is energy dependant so very vulnerable to blockade response by the US and Japan. A few choke points make it easy, the ocean is not open ended.

dragonelite 5 hours ago|||
Well to this day China is getting Iranian energy. This naval blockade is a relic of a past long gone. When you have eyes in the sky and pin point accurate missiles. The US can't even block or free the straight of Hormuz.

Also China is friendly with Russia they have land border so they can build pipelines.

eunos 5 hours ago|||
> China has the same air defense and tech as Iran

Lmao, quantitatively and qualitatively China is more than an order of magnitude bigger

LorenPechtel 4 hours ago||
Hypersonic has a big weakness--good luck building a seeker that can function hypersonic. And most of that flight will be effectively outside the atmosphere--no midcourse adjustments. If you're standing still that's irrelevant, but if you can move that's a big issue. And how many Chinesium rocket motors will explode on ignition, blowing up whatever is doing the shooting.
creantum 6 hours ago||
If they’re half as good as the robot I saw today in china slapping that kid id get a few
code_biologist 6 hours ago|
Chat, is this real? I've seen this guy pop up on youtube. I assume he's a Chinese state mouthpiece as he's a westerner in the mainland with a very pro-China spin (substack recommended the other posts below), but I'm curious how strong the factual basis for this reporting is.

China's factories are in another world - Mar 23, 2025

Chinese factories build fire trucks for under $400,000 in six weeks. In the US, it's $2 million in 4 years - Apr 19, 2025

Iran is blowing up $500 million radars. China's export bans mean they are gone forever. - Mar 16, 2026

anon7000 6 hours ago||
Good question. I think China is undoubtedly far better than the US at advanced, cheap mass-production. So wouldn’t be surprising they could do that for the military too. Not to say the US couldn’t get better.
rhubarbtree 6 hours ago|||
Better than the US at producing almost anything at this point. There are a few tiny islands of advantage left for the US in advanced engineering but they won’t last.

Prediction: China will win the new race to the moon for this very reason.

bamboozled 5 hours ago|||
This is basically what made the USA a military super power in the first place? At least it's what made them so powerful during WW2 and I guess beyond.
DetroitThrow 6 hours ago|||
There's a few of these guys that make posts about technology that doesn't materialize after a few years, they can be ignored. There are plenty of pro-China observers that offer grounded analysis of Chinese military-industrial base out there that don't make claims that China has unobtainium technology. /r/LessCredibleDefence has a shortlist of these propagandists.
fooker 6 hours ago||
Yeah it's certainly unimaginable that the civilization that invented gunpowder, cannons, guns, rockets a thousand years ago can make it for cheap now :)

'Hypersonic' missile makes it sound like it's alien technology, no it's solid boosters that do not follow the usual ballistic trajectory with a computer from 1970.

The raw materials cost less than half of a standard car.

justin66 6 hours ago|||
I've only read a few short blurbs about this. What makes you think the booster doesn't follow a normal ballistic trajectory?
sgc 5 hours ago||
That's pretty much the entire point of what people are calling hypersonic missiles. All ballistic missiles fly at hypersonic speeds. The advance is being able to do so at low altitude with maneuverability.
larkost 5 hours ago||
You are correct, but I should point out that Russia has described its Kinzhal missiles as hypersonic, when they are really more of a traditional ballistic missile fired horizontally. So very fast (Mach 10), but not as maneuverable as what the U.S. has been calling hypersonic.

Since the original story here does not provide many details, we can't know which side of that fence this falls on (assuming it is real).

fooker 4 hours ago||
Kinzhals being intercepted all the time could also be propaganda or missile defense having progressed more than publicly known.

It's not a great idea in war to assume your enemy is incompetent (even when they are).

esseph 6 hours ago|||
"no it's solid boosters that do not follow the usual ballistic trajectory"

Hypersonics do not. They are extremely fast and extremely low flying.

fooker 4 hours ago||
No, hypersonic is a marketing term here that indicates 'difficult to intercept'.

It does not imply anything about speed, just automatic or controlled maneuvering later in the stage than normal missiles do.

esseph 4 hours ago||
The very definition of hypersonic requires at least Mach 5 in terms of speed.

sigh

fooker 3 hours ago||
We have had mach 5 missiles for about 60-80 years now, that's not what the novelty is.
esseph 1 hour ago||
Mach 5, high maneuverability, inside the atmosphere. Normally a non-ballistic trajectory. That's been the goal for a very long time.

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/NCO-Journal/Archive...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypersonic_weapon

Do you have something to add to this discussion?

We just redoing definitions, or what?

nclin_ 6 hours ago||
You don't have to assume: He seems to provide ample detailed western sources to back up his claims in every video.

Perhaps it'd be more difficult for him to broadcast if he had an anti-china perspective, but the content itself seems legitimate.

magicalist 6 hours ago|||
> He seems to provide ample detailed western sources to back up his claims in every video

Does he? The only sources seem to be a CNSpaceflight tweet from last november of a promo animation from the missile company, and a South China Morning Post article that is just quoting commentators on Chinese state TV talking about the the possible capabilities of the missiles.

The other sources (someone else's substack that's sourced from a December article[1] from The Independent, and two articles on "interestingengineering") all just quote the same animation and commentators.

[1] https://www.the-independent.com/asia/china/china-hypersonic-...

kube-system 6 hours ago|||
China does keep close tabs on foreign bloggers in their country (especially over the past decade or so), and anything remotely nonpositive does get people visits from police or worse. There is a huge chilling effect, even for people who mostly do have positive things to say.