A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

Posted by ddp26 4 hours ago

A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses(futuresearch.ai)

88 points | 148 commentspage 2

ChrisArchitect 3 hours ago|

The SpaceX IPO: retail investor notes

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47612775

SpaceX files to go public

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47604155

bobtheborg 3 hours ago||

Having never really looked at valuations, my ignorant mind can get from Starlink's 10M subscribers to a $380B valuation. If you make $100/mo/user that's 12B/yr and that with a higher 50x P/E ratio is 60B. If you go to 100x, that's $120B.

Octoth0rpe 2 hours ago|

Starlink's maritime, roving, airplane, and military options are all much more than $100/mo/user. Not sure how much that closes the gap, but it's _something_.

Source: https://starlink.com/business/aviation ($250->$10k/mo)

https://starlink.com/business/maritime ($250/mo)

https://starlink.com/business/mobility ($65->$540/mo)

paxys 4 hours ago||

Everyone is so confident in their reading of tea leaves

ddp26 3 hours ago|

I read your comment as being glib, but in forecasting this I was really puzzled how much to anchor to how analysts tend to value these businesses.

I ended up largely deferring to them, e.g. predicting the public will value xAI at $258 billion ($222b - $310b) at time of IPO, even though I've elsewhere been skeptical that xAI should be valued like a frontier AI lab.

It's a keynesian beauty contest

rvz 4 hours ago||

All these IPOs are extremely bearish and mirroring the 2019 race-for-the-exit IPOs out there.

Of course once again, you are "not allowed" to be early into pre-IPO companies which is where the actual money is made.

The moment several companies start IPOing, you are already too late for those multiples and have to wait for a massive crash until these stocks reach all time lows after IPO.

righthand 4 hours ago||

Wall Street, ICE jobs, bs AI valuations, etc is proof that there are just enough stupid people in this country to ruin it all for the rest of us.

vesnanomikai 3 hours ago|

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