Disappointing that AGI will be for the powerful only. We are heading for an AI dystopia of Sci-Fi novels.

They even admit:

"[...]our overall conclusion is that catastrophic risks remain low. This determination involves judgment calls. The model is demonstrating high levels of capability and saturates many of our most concrete, objectively-scored evaluations, leaving us with approaches that involve more fundamental uncertainty, such as examining trends in performance for acceleration (highly noisy and backward-looking) and collecting reports about model strengths and weaknesses from internal users (inherently subjective, and not necessarily reliable)."

Is this not just an admission of defeat?

After reading this paper I don't know if the model is safe or not, just some guesses, yet for some reason catastrophic risks remain low.

And this is for just an LLM after all, very big but no persistent memory or continuous learning. Imagine an actual AI that improves itself every day from experience. It would be impossible to have a slightest clue about its safety, not even this nebulous statement we have here.

Any sort of such future architecture model would be essentially Russian roulette with amount of bullets decided by initial alignment efforts.

Shame. Back to business as usual then.

Although, amusingly, today Opus told me that the string 'emerge' is not going to match 'emergency' by using `LIKE '%emerge%'` in Sqlite

Moment of disappointment. Otherwise great.

You are not "anti-progress" to not want this future we are building, as you are not "anti-progress" for not wanting your kids to grow up on smart phones and social media.

We should remember that not all technology is net-good for humanity, and this technology in particular poses us significant risks as a global civilisation, and frankly as humans with aspirations for how our future, and that of our kids, should be.

Increasingly, from here, we have to assume some absurd things for this experiment we are running to go well.

Specifically, we must assume that:

- AI models, regardless of future advancements, will always be fundamentally incapable of causing significant real-world harms like hacking into key life-sustaining infrastructure such as power plants or developing super viruses.

- They are or will be capable of harms, but SOTA AI labs perfectly align all of them so that they only hack into "the bad guys" power plants and kill "the bad guys".

- They are capable of harms and cannot be reliably aligned, but Anthropic et al restricts access to the models enough that only select governments and individuals can access them, these individuals can all be trusted and models never leak.

- They are capable of harms, cannot be reliably aligned, but the models never seek to break out of their sandbox and do things the select trusted governments and individuals don't want.

I'm not sure I'm willing to bet on any of the above personally. It sounds radical right now, but I think we should consider nuking any data centers which continue allowing for the training of these AI models rather than continue to play game of Russian roulette.

If you disagree, please understand when you realise I'm right it will be too late for and your family. Your fates at that point will be in the hands of the good will of the AI models, and governments/individuals who have access to them. For now, you can say, "no, this is quite enough".

This sounds doomer and extreme, but if you play out the paths in your head from here you will find very few will end in a good result. Perhaps if we're lucky we will all just be more or less unemployable and fully dependant on private companies and the government for our incomes.