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Posted by anjel 9 hours ago

F-35 is built for the wrong war(warontherocks.com)
213 points | 442 commentspage 4
freediddy 8 hours ago|
I think ultimately the real weapon of mass destruction will be long-range drones the size of a DJI drone, each holding a small but extremely powerful explosive.

And then send millions of them, with specific single targets. Each AI controlled to target single weakpoints in buildings, bridges, or even specific people. You can't stop a million of them even with EMPs because you can just end a million more. You can destroy entire cities with a technology like this. If each drone costs $10,000 and you send a million of them that's only $10 billion for a war and complete destruction of your enemy.

jandrewrogers 8 hours ago||
Explosives don't scale in the way you seem to think they do. Below a certain threshold of warhead mass, you won't do much more than scratch the paint. The effects aren't linearly additive. The warheads required to penetrate military targets are incredibly heavy; you won't be loading them on a DJI drone nor traveling far even if you could.

A thousand sparrows does not an eagle make.

credit_guy 8 hours ago|||
I think the opposite. Drones are subject to the tyrany of the rocket equation: they need fuel (or batteries) to fly, then fuel (or batteries) to carry the fuel, etc, in a compounded way. Which makes long range drone inherently more expensive than short range ones.

Right now, the novelty of the technology means the offensive has an advantage. But long term it will be the defensive who will benefit the most from drones.

freediddy 8 hours ago||
I described below how you could launch thousands of them from a single massive container that gets dropped by B2 bombers. You have to use your imagination, you're not limited by today's technology anymore.
credit_guy 6 hours ago|||
I was answering to your comment in the current thread, where you explicitly said "long-range" drones. Long-range drones will always be more expensive than short range drones, and not in a linear way, in an exponential way.

Thousands of short range drones dropped from B2 bombers sound like an interesting idea, until you hear about JDAM bombs, of which the US has a virtually unlimited supply, which are cheap, and are incredibly powerful compared to anything one could attach to a DJI-sized drone.

bamboozled 8 hours ago|||
Why not just drop a container of tnt instead of drones with tiny bombs ?
XorNot 8 hours ago||
You could also just write "magic" and say we should invest in wizards.

No DJI sized drone using any available or near future technology is going to have a range of more then whatever 20 to 30 minutes of well-below subsonic flight time can get you.

freediddy 8 hours ago||
You could drop them from B2 bombers and they could fall to the ground en masse at hundreds of miles an hour and then the propellers could open up as they get closer to the ground.

Or you could launch them in massive containers like in Infinity War and these containers filled with thousands of them would land on the ground and open up and release the drones.

You're just not imaginative enough to solve the problem you described.

von_lohengramm 6 hours ago|||
> like in Infinity War

Referencing Marvel movies in one's description of proposed military hardware is not only immediately discrediting but also a good sign that self-reflection is in order.

smcameron 8 hours ago||||
Ukraine, in operation spiderweb, has already launched drones from containers deep within Russia to damage "... one third of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers, estimated to be worth $US7 billion ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb

coredog64 8 hours ago||||
If you want to target a large area, there’s already cluster munitions and/or thermobarics.
XorNot 8 hours ago|||
So you know. Glide bombs. Which already exist and are already used and have a range of about 130km for a high altitude launch and a lot payload.

Or some absurdly heavy ballistic missile...which would be worse then existing ballistic missiles and is the type of target for which Patriot is specifically designed for (along with a number of other systems now).

This is an amazingly unserious post to the point I hope you're trolling. Or just twelve.

ericd 7 hours ago||
So we’ve made a small number of exquisite King Tigers, and they’re making huge numbers of Shermans?
morning-coffee 8 hours ago||
The F-35 was specified when the Joint Strike Fighter program began in 1995, with the development contract awarded in 2001, and the first flight in 2006 or thereabouts.

Of course it was built for a different war... the use of drones didn't proliferate until after the 2010s and really more since the 2020s with Russia/Ukraine.

So, thanks Captain Obvious and arm-chair quarterback, for the insightful article.

jandrewrogers 8 hours ago||
People forget just how old the F-22 and F-35 actually are, mostly because they are still the current state-of-the-art. That is 1990s tech.

The 6th gen platforms currently in testing address many of the issues raised with the 5th gen platforms. Which you would expect since they weren't designed in the previous century.

anon84873628 8 hours ago||
People not paying attention need it explained to them.
ghstinda 6 hours ago||
tiktok is the ultimate weapon still, nothing bombs minds more than that
themafia 8 hours ago||
It's a camel designed by committee.

On paper it looks cool.

In practice it was /never/ the right plane. The contractors knew and didn't care.

wnc3141 8 hours ago||
I think it's more contractors were responsible for providing only their deliverables. The program design as a whole is done by the DoD when they bid out their requirements.
dlcarrier 8 hours ago||
Yeah, military pricing isn't because of it's good quality, it's because it's compliant, and they are usually at odds with each other.
Terr_ 8 hours ago|||
> designed by committee

I've seen an argument--which I don't have enough expertise to advocate for--that the F35's broad but shallow appeal ("jack of all trades, master of none") has an indirect strength: A wider base of demand goes with a manufacturing and supply chain that is constantly active and can be ramped-up if needed.

Speaking of military hardware in general, I can easily imagine there are cases where "best for logistics" completely trounces "best for the job".

Jtsummers 8 hours ago||
> A wider base of demand goes with a manufacturing and supply chain that is constantly active and can be ramped-up if needed.

Except it can't really be ramped up. It's enormously expensive to build a single F-35, let alone maintain them, and the geographic distribution of the effort only makes that worse.

And then they made it worse again by making many parts of the F-35 F-35 specific. You can't just drop in the same radio LRU from most other airframes and use it with the F-35, it has its own and its own maintenance cycles. The thing was designed to be expensive, it was not designed for manufacturing efficiency.

dralley 7 hours ago|||
> Except it can't really be ramped up. It's enormously expensive to build a single F-35

This is completely wrong, though. It's cheaper to build an F-35 than it is to build a Eurofighter, Rafale or Gripen, which are significantly older and less capable platforms. And not even "a little" cheaper - quite a bit cheaper. Economies of scale are real

doctorpangloss 8 hours ago|||
part of its mission is being expensive, but surely you can see how that changes with the stroke of a pen?
robocat 8 hours ago|||
Camels are very well designed.

Pick on a less useful animal.

philipallstar 8 hours ago||
Well yes, we have a load of taxpayer funded people to decide what to build.
consumer451 8 hours ago||
The taxpayer funding is often the smaller part the complete lifetime pay package.

> A 2014 study of U.S. Department of Defense appointees showed that 28% exited to industry. As of 2023, 80 per cent of U.S. four-star retirees are employed in defense industry.[0]

There are actually entirely reasonable, rational explanations for this, but it's not a great look.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolving_door_(politics)

philipallstar 8 hours ago||
Undoubtedly so! But blame the people who get free money out of your income to be impartial and make decisions, not the people who have to earn their pay to carry out the decisions. If they wanted to prohibit that sort of thing they could.
eduction 5 hours ago||
Bizarre to call this an F-35 problem, it's with the entire US supply chain and the F-35 is the least of it.

The F-35 at least has been produced in quantity and the unit cost has come down and they're finally rolling out some decent upgrades. Yes it's a messed up program in so many ways as its literal decades of history shows but:

The bigger issues is our industrial base cannot replace our many missile systems quickly enough, including surface to air, antiship, and surface to surface. We can't build ships or planes very quickly, either.

We are woefully low on stocks and can't meet commitments in NATO, mideast, and against China and N Korea. Taiwan is and has been waiting years on billions in backorders.

The other issues is everything is as expensive as f-ck. We're shooting down dirt cheap drones costing in the thousands with missiles costing in the millions. The article at least mentions this.

And what is the proposed solution to this? A giant, expensive, long range fighter that will coordinate expensive drone buddies (google NGAD). Because we think it's realistic to try and defeat Chinese forces when we're thousands of miles from base and they're at home.

First off we need to replenish systems we already know how to make and that are effective. We need to learn to build sh-t quickly, at home and with allies, and it's bizarre no politician has taken the lead on this because it involves popular stuff like spending government money, creating blue collar manufacturing jobs, growing small businesses with more reliable gov contracts, and so forth.

Then we need to develop cheaper systems including lots of drones, anti drone stuff, and low cost interceptors and antisurface missiles.

Then we need to reform contracting infrastructure and rules to move much much faster and with less cost to experiment and iterate more rapidly going forward like the Ukrainians (and even the Iranians) are doing.

We need to do all of this and quickly and no one from either party is providing leadership. This is the biggest reason the US and west are at risk of becoming paper tigers - we have cut our infrastructure and defense spending and microoptimized inventory to the point where we can't restock quickly enough to be a credible deterrent force.

einpoklum 6 hours ago||
So, an author who takes no issue with the war of aggression against Iran, and is preoccupied with planning a war against China. Well that's just great.
kp988 6 hours ago||
it seems to be worse than both Chinese planes and American planes, and was easily shot down by Iranians
worik 8 hours ago||
The best defense policy for the USA, any country really, is to be a good neighbor, good "world citizen" and reliable friend

One can dream

shevy-java 8 hours ago|
I think cheap missiles and drones changed a lot of things. One could see this in Ukraine; more recently in Iran. USA is primarily focusing on heavy impact and expensive wars. This may be a more effective strategy, but it does not seem to be very realistic. I can't help but feel that this is especially much the case with regard to Iran, because the USA, despite what the orange bolo is saying, does not seem to be that eager to intensify the war (e. g. no ground invasion - and that's very telling if you remember the Iraq or Afghanistan invasion).
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