Posted by Kaibeezy 1 day ago
It is with glee that I will watch it burn.
We'll see what, if anything, actually becomes available.
Now, hang a high voltage wire down from a big-ass catenary, so you don't need batteries, and it'll be cheaper upfront and in use, but nobody does that because of 1. safety 2. if everybody did it the grid would need upgrades
If a family car energy usage is 1x, then a light duty truck is about 1.5x, and a heavy duty truck doing hauling or towing is about 4x. A medium sized farm tractor would probably be 20x or more.
In that light, it's not hard to see how cars and light trucks could fare well with today's battery energy density, while heavy duty trucks are at the limits. For a tractor, it's not even close.
I do think we'll see smaller tractors going electric in about 10-15 years.
Which is to say an electric tractor would be great for me, but for most farmers useless.
100 years ago I might cook in a cast iron pan and use a slide rule to compute.
Now I cook in a cast iron pan and use a 5nm scale multi core CPU to compute.
In 100 years I might cook in a cast iron pan and use a topological quantum computer to compute. In my home in a spinning city at a Lunar LaGrange point.
We are in the try everything with everything phase of early technological development.
Edit 2 to add: I think it's important to be specific about what the computing is for. If you just need to solve a small number of equations, then yes, you can do that with a slide rule. But in the written communication case above, the computing is only useful when done with at least the speed of an early microcomputer and paired with digital storage and/or networking and a variety of I/O devices. Still, we don't strictly need our modern supercomputers for that use case, except that it's now considered weird and limiting to use anything less. Also, I bring up the written communication use case because there is a rising backlash against allowing personal computers at all in certain contexts, such as education, because of AI-based cheating. I don't want disabled people like me to lose what we've gained from personal computing in the specific use case I described above. Maybe the solution is to normalize using less than a maximally powerful, Internet-connected personal computer in such contexts.
And how are you heating that pan? 100 years ago it was fire (wood mostly), today it's gas or electric resistance (mostly, induction is growing though) - what will it be in 100 years?