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Posted by nkrisc 14 hours ago

US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid(www.cnn.com)
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-soldier-charged-usin...
256 points | 297 commentspage 2
mellosouls 2 hours ago|
There are a lot of (rightly) critical comments here about the imbalance between prosecutions of high-ups taking bets and the grunts (in this case though, a senior-ranking soldier).

But it seems to me that the closer to the frontline you go, the betrayal is even worse; if the story is true, then these are his friends and comrades he is endangering for financial gain - its not just an abstract risk argued away by simple high-level corruption.

cpncrunch 2 hours ago|
Do we have any evidence of higher-ups making bets?
mellosouls 2 hours ago||
People with a lot of money have certainly been making bets (plenty of recent news items on that), but I think the point being raised by others is that it's suspicious that only the lower orders have so far apparently been pursued.
throw03172019 6 hours ago||
Insiders bet a solider would be caught for betting on Maduro. They won.
Fokamul 2 hours ago||
What an idiot, don't input your real id and don't use own face in KYC. Omfg.

Morally it's ok to steal crypto from these types of markets, everybody is crooked there, client and market makers.

danso 10 hours ago||
It’s arguable that opening the doors for greedy soldiers to do a little insider trading and inadvertently expose the illegal covert violent raid that they’re party to might be one of the few positive outcomes in a society gamified by Polymarket
jh00ker 12 hours ago|||
How many people in congress made the exact same bet on the exact same information, and for them it's "legal?"
wmf 11 hours ago||
None, because Congress wasn't informed of the Maduro raid until afterwards?
janalsncm 11 hours ago||
We have finally figured out the purpose of the War Powers Act.
cosmicgadget 12 hours ago|||
It is legal and until we vote for people who will outlaw it we only have ourselves to blame.
GolfPopper 11 hours ago||
Easy to say, hard to do, when your two "choices" at the ballot box represent slightly different groups of wealthy donors.
cosmicgadget 10 hours ago|||
Vote in primaries. Also wealthy donors probably care less about whether a candidate can self-enrich with insider trading.
XorNot 10 hours ago|||
Ah enlightened centrism rears its head again. Remember folks: at all points both sides are exactly the same /s.
singingtoday 10 hours ago||
If you guilt me into voting, I'll probably vote for somebody you don't like.

Isn't it better that I don't vote?

_carbyau_ 10 hours ago||
No. It is better that you vote. For at the end of the day you can:

1. know you tried to express your wishes

2. know that the outcome is because people expressed their wishes

3. realise the balance between 1. and 2. whether the outcome is as you hoped, and especially if it is not as you hoped.

This is important because hanging back and saying "Well I didn't vote for them!" is by default not supporting democracy as your country views it.

snypher 12 hours ago||
“Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable”

Yeah right.

spankibalt 3 hours ago||
Some things do trickle down.
doom2 9 hours ago||
I thought prodiction markets benefit from insider knowledge. Isn't the whole point that insiders make bets, thereby surfacing knowledge and allowing for more accurate forecasts? So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets? In this case, any potential military target of the US would really want this insider info.
bawolff 7 hours ago||
> So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets

Who is the "we" in this sentence?

Yes, insider knowledge makes the prediction market more accurate (albeit at the cost of being less "fair"). However US government doesn't want prediction markets to accurately predict the timing of their secret military operations. Hence the arrest.

analog31 7 hours ago|||
I think the problem is similar to insider sports betting, which is that once someone has made a bet, they will try to influence policy decisions in order to profit from that bet.

It's not so much insider knowledge that's a problem, but insider influence. You're paying people to make bad decisions.

Although, it would be amusing to create a sports league where the athletes are expressly permitted to wager on the outcome of their games.

analog31 7 hours ago|||
I think the problem is similar to insider sports betting, which is that once someone has made a bet, they will try to influence policy decisions in order to profit from that bet.

It's not so much insider knowledge that's a problem, but insider influence. You're paying people to make bad decisions.

mcmcmc 7 hours ago||
Maybe we just don’t want prediction markets.
danny_codes 7 hours ago||
You spelled gambling platform wrong. This attempt to rename gambling websites is infuriating. I hope these people get meaningful prison time
WalterGR 8 hours ago||
There’s 109 comments on this submission of the news: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883108
smileson2 4 hours ago|
My respects to a real one, hope it turns out ok
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